Fantasy Football: GW2 Fixture Review from @Shots_on_target

IFPLFriend of the site and regular contributor @Shots_on_target  is doing some great work with the team at Inside FPL 

Here is his roundup from GW2

Following on from our GW2 Player Ratings here is our statistical analysis of each team’s performances from last weekend and the players who posed the most threat of a goal or to claim an assist.

As a reminder xG (xGoals = Expected Goals) is a totalling up of each team’s shots and likelihood of a goal based on shot position, assist type, whether it was header or not, and situation. From this individual player xG and xA (xAssist) can be worked out to determine their xPts. Currently this is attacking points only. Appearance, bonus, clean sheet points will be factored in subsequent gameweeks..

Fulham xG:1.0 – 2.4 Arsenal

Final score 1-3

Fulham tried to attack but just haven’t got the quality or team right yet with new signings in key positions, although Darren Bent got straight into the danger zones when he came on. Walcott had several good chances. Cazorla’s shooting was mostly limited to long-range efforts. Giroud looks good for a 1 goal in 2 games kind of season.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Fulham::Bent (1.5), Taarabt (0.9), Berbatov (0.6)
Arsenal: Walcott (5.1), Cazorla (2.1), Giroud (1.9), Ramsey (1.8)

Aston Villa 0.9 – 0.6 Liverpool

Final score 0-1

Liverpool got away with it a little here but Rodgers got his tactics right to limit Aston Villa’s chances. They wanted a clean sheet and got one, Villa are much better on the counter-attack as we’ve seen already this season., When asked to break a team like Liverpool down they lack a real midfield schemer to pick the lock. Benteke always good for a goal though, and Sturridge is just class. These twos don’t need many chances.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Aston Villa: Benteke (1.1)
Liverpool: Enrique (1.4), Sturridge (1.4)

Everton 1.7 – 0.5 WBA

Final score 0-0

1.7 xG is a typical rating a good home side should get against an average away defence so getting no goals is a failed opportunity for Everton to show they can compete at the top end of the Premier League goalscorers. Either that or WBA can defend as well as Chelsea. That Fellaini tops Everton’s xPts is an indication of how packed the Baggies penalty box was.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Everton: Fellaini (2.3) Barkley (1.7), Mirallas (1.3)
WBA: Morrison (1.2), Long (1.1)

Cardiff 1.5 – 2.0 Man City

Final score 3-2

The weekend’s big shock and highest scoring game with plenty of chances for both teams, Cardiff equipped themselves really well and if they can match this performance again this week against Everton their attacking players may warrant some interest. This may have been a case of complacency for Pellegrini though who had his first taste of the danger of set-pieces in the English game. And the Welsh one.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Cardiff: Campbell (4.2), Gunnarsson (2.4), Kim (1.1)
Man City: Silva (2.9), Aguero (2.0) Zabaleta (2.0)

Man Utd 1.2 – 0.4 Chelsea

Final score 0-0

Mourinho set out to stifle and suffocate and managed it with some ease. A real lack of ambition shown going forward for Chelsea should pretty much provide you with Mourinho’s intentions this season. He’d be happy winning every game 1-0 and the high ownership of players like Hazard will take a dip if Mourinho keeps the shackles on. Moyes has to considered be in the same boat though. He’s more caution than cavalier.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Man Utd: Rooney (2.1), Van Persie (1.5), Welbeck (1.2)
Chelsea:: Oscar (0.8), Ivanovic (0.8)

Newcastle 1.1 – 0.6 West Ham

Final score 0-1

Pretty much business as usual for these two team this season. A game of limited chances with plenty of set pieces played into packed penalty boxes. At least Newcastle showed they can keep a clean sheet which was important for them after GW1.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Newcastle: Goufrfran (1.7), Marveaux (1.6)
West HamL Morrison (1.3), Nolan (0.7)

Hull 0.4 – 0.6 Norwich

Final score 1-0

Another game lacking any attacking quality, decided by a penalty goal and shaped by an early red card for Hull. Getting a clean sheet with 10 men and keeping the xG down to say they deserve it is very impressive. Norwich’s new addition’s up front do not look like they’ll change the Canaries attacking returns away from home.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Hull: Livermore (0.6), Brady (0.6)
Norwich:: Howson (0.8), van Wolfswinkel (0.8)

Stoke 1.5 – 0.9 Crystal Palace

Final score 2-1

Stoke look like they at least go for it in  games this season and Crouch and Adam look half-decent fantasy options at £6m. It’s hard to judge Palace yet based on two difficult games but relying on any of their players for your team looks difficult at this stage.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Stoke: Walters (2.8) Crouch (2.6), Adam (1.7)
Palace: Chamakh (1.0), Moxey (0.9)

Southampton 1.2 – 0.6 Sunderland

Final score 1-1

Another interesting game in judging the prospects of two teams who are in a state of transition going into this new season. Southampton’s attack will have to do a lot better than this if players like Lallana are going to get on our radar. Lambert remains central to the best parts of their attack. For Sunderland it’s too early to write off Johnson or Giaccherini yet but their £7m price tags will be hard to justify.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts) (xPts)
Southamptn: Lambert (2.6), Rodgriguez (1.6)
Sunderland: Dong-Won (1.4), Johnson (0.9), Giaccherini (0.9)

Tottenham 1.6 – 0.4 Swansea

Final score 1-0

Laudrup’s mentality here was similar to other away managers this weekend. Try and get a clean sheet. Swansea did their usual job of preventing any chances of real quality, denying Soldado in particular and allowing Spur’s less clinical midfielders the lion’s share of chances. . Spurs’s new-look midfield did look strong defensively but with Swansea;s lack of ambition going forward the jury is still out. The Emirates will be a real test.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Spurs: Paulinho (3.7), Dembele (1.8), Chadli (1.6)
Swansea: : Chico (1.0), Shelvey (0.9)


Posted on 28 Aug 2013, in Player Selection and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.

  1. Paulinho is certainly intriguing, and I’m a little scared about holding Soldado, despite the penalties. Nice roundup.

  1. Pingback: Fantasy Football: GW2 Fixture Review from @Shots_on_target | Lighting the easy way

  2. Pingback: Fantasy Football Weekly RoundUp: Manchester City, Arsenal vs Spurs and Bonus Points frustration | @FantasyYIRMA

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