Guest Post: Finding End of Season Value and Differentials
Many thanks to Jonathan from @SportinglyBet for supplying this guest post.
Finding End of Season Value and Differentials
With just nine games remaining, fantasy managers up and down the country will be looking to put their below par points return from Gameweek 29 to bed and make a final end of season push.
On paper Arsenal have the best run of fixtures including a double gameweek against Norwich and Everton in Gameweek 33.
Midfielders Theo Walcott and Santi Cazorla can both be expected to be drafted in by an influx of managers, especially before Gameweek 33, but it is England international Walcott (£9.0m) who offers the best value given his more advanced role for Arsenal this season.
Centre half Per Mertesacker remains the cheapest way to get into Arsenal’s backline, with the Gunners keeping clean sheets in three of their last four games in the Premier League.
Oliver Giroud (£7.6m) is a somewhat divisive mid-price option in attack, but after scoring nine goals in his debut season the France international could still flip opinion between now and the end of the season. Selected by just 2.6% of fantasy managers, the France international could prove a significant differential given Arsenal’s remaining fixtures in the Premier League.
Brendan Rodgers’ LIVERPOOL side also end the season well with a favourable run of fixtures, fuelling hope that the Merseyside club could make the Champions League.
Uruguay striker Luis Suarez has again been the Reds leading light this season, with over 40% of fantasy managers currently boasting the Premier League top scorer in their ranks.
Fabio Borini’s injury and Raheem Sterling’s fatigue could see January signing Daniel Sturridge (£7.5m) feature more heavily for Liverpool this season. Sturridge has scored five goals in the league since making the move from Chelsea and the English striker has often been played in the more advanced role alongside Suarez.
Phillipe Coutinho has also impressed since his January move, but the Brazilian midfielder will be subject to a gradual introduction of Premier League football by Brendan Rodgers. Stewart Downing offers a more in-form selection, with two goals, one assist and three bonus points in the last three gameweeks and despite a budget price of £5.7m, only 1.3% of managers have the England international in their squad.Relegation threatened QPR enjoy fixtures against Aston Villa, Fulham and Wigan over the next three gameweeks and fantasy managers have been quick to snap up French forward Loic Remy.
Three goals in four starts has been the return of the former Marseille striker and a price tag of just £5.9m will see Remy quickly become the third choice striker for many fantasy sides.
Harry Redknapp’s team remains full of fantasy worth, epitomised none more so than on loan midfielder Andros Townsend at £4.4m who produced a man of the match performance with a goal, two assists and three bonus points against Sunderland last time out.
Christopher Samba is another to add to the watchlist, after scoring over 100 points in three successive seasons for Blackburn during 2008-2011. Samba is still short of the pace of the Premier League, but the Congo international has always carried a substantial threat from corners and set-pieces..
Elsewhere suitors of NORWICH could come back into fashion, with Javier Garrido, Russell Martin and Sebastian Bassong high on the agenda given the Canaries run of nine clean sheets already this season.
NEWCASTLE’s Moussa Sissoko and Yohan Cabaye look encouraging in the centre of the Magpies midfield, with fixtures against Wigan, Fulham Sunderland and West Brom on the horizon.
Over the next few gameweeks managers will be eagerly reshaping their squads and the quest to find differentials with favourable fixture runs look never-ending, as we approach the final part of the season.
By Jonathan Day
About the Author:
Jonathan Day is a European football expert who specialises in Premier League football. Jonathan currently writes for Sportingly Better, a football betting blog in the UK offering free football tips. Follow Sportingly Better on Facebook or Twitter for all their latest tips.
Posted on 12 Mar 2013, in Player Selection and tagged Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, EPL, Everton, fantasy football, Fantasy Premier League, feature, FPL, Liverpool, Luis Suarez, manchester city, Manchester United, Newcastle, Norwich. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.