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Fantasy Premier League: GameWeek26 overview from @RotoZdroik
Thanks to @RotoZdroik for his guest post looking at Gameweek26.
When playing Fantasy Soccer (ed. Football!?!?!), there are two things you have to focus on when building your team: Form and Value. If you’re grabbing players because they have a lot of total points, it doesn’t really work out most of the time.
The first example is Michu, who hasn’t scored since December, a stretch of seven games. Even with that stat, there was close to 100,000 people that added him in the month of January because he’s still near the top of the charts in total points.
Another player is Carlos Tevez, who’s owned by 23 percent of people at premierleague.com. Tevez has zero goals and three assists since Dec. 9. In Man City’s last six matches, he only has three starts. That’s telling you something right there, and even his starts have a lot to do with Sergio Aguero’s injury.
Branislav Ivanovic is one of the most expensive defenders in the game and is owned by 24 percent of players. He has a lot of points because of his four goals and one assist on the year. Can you really count on that for a defender, though? Two of those goals came in the first two games of the year. He has had more than two Fantasy points just once since Dec. 23. Chelsea’s defense has been a question mark of late, giving up eight goals in their last four matches. Why is he still owned by so many people? He’s a waste of money.
Cases like these can be found across all positions and owners aren’t doing anything about it. They just assume a player is good because of his name or that he has a lot of points and that sooner or later, he’ll come around again. You can’t play Fantasy with that kind of mentality. You need the best possible team every week, not one scattered with underperforming, expensive players.
Here are some guys that are in form and deserve your attention.
Julio Cesar, QPR, GK, 5.0m, 3.8% owned
He has four clean sheets in his last five matches which says everything you need to know. Is there a reason Ben Foster is on more teams that Cesar, yet costs the same? Foster hasn’t had a clean sheet since returning from injury, that’s eight straight games.
How about Stoke City’s Asmir Begovic, who’s owned by over 25 percent of players? A lot of people probably got him when he was cheaper, but he’s 5.8m right now and not everyone got him at the beginning of the year at 4.5m. Stoke’s defense has disappeared in the new year, giving up goals in seven straight games including a stretch of 15 goals in five games. He’s not close to being a good option even with their upcoming schedule.
Ben Davies, Swansea, DEF, 4.6m, 12.9% owned
His ownership rate has picked up a lot lately which is good to see. I say this stat often, the Swans have allowed fewer goals on the road than any other club. They were very close to another clean sheet this past weekend, but Andy Carroll finally stepped up.
Michael Dawson, Tottenham, DEF, 4.5m, 2.3% owned
Why is a starting Spurs defender only on two percent of teams? He’s been injured a lot this year, but he’s probably going to be the starter for the rest of the year as long as he stays healthy. Dawson is by far the cheapest of the bunch on the Spurs backline.
These two players lead to question why Ryan Shawcross is the most owned defender. He falls in line with Begovic. The Stoke defense is in a slump. People have been dropping Shawcross for the past month, but he’s still on close to 29 percent of squads.
Much like Ivanovic, teammate Ashley Cole is also hugely overrated. Chelsea’s defense is in a funk and Cole costs 6.5m, which no one can really justify. He’s on 15.1% of teams.
Frank Lampard, Chelsea, MID, 8.5m, 4.5% owned
Midfielders are a little harder to look at because most of them are living up to their pricing, but one of them that isn’t getting enough attention is Lampard. He is somehow being underrated right now. He and Steven Gerrard have taken a drink from the fountain of youth and are two of the hottest players in the game. Lamps has seven goals in his last eight starts.
On the other end of that is Yaya Toure, who is still on 15 percent of squads even though he’s been away in Africa for the past few weeks. Even so, he’s played in 800 more minutes than Lampard and has less Fantasy Points. Toure is a great player, but not overwhelming in Fantasy. He costs the same as Marouane Fellaini (last week’s Fantasy leader) and is only 0.8m cheaper than Lampard. Why spend good money on a player that isn’t worth it?
Another midfielder that can be looked at is recent transfer Moussa Sissoko, who is very close to being a forward for Newcastle. While he’s only played in two Premier League matches, he’s already shown what he can do with two goals and an assist. At only 6.0m, a lot of people will be looking to add him to their squads.
Victor Anichebe, Everton, FOR, 4.4m, 2.4% owned
The fact that he’s still owned by less than three percent of people is mind boggling. Not only does he have three goals and four assists in his last eight matches, he has sort of taken over Nikica Jelavic’s spot as Everton’s starting striker. The guy is currently at 4.4m. He would be your third forward and he’s doing better than Demba Ba (26.9% owned) at Chelsea. I told everyone Ba was overrated a few weeks ago and he’s only backed up my statement with just one league goal in a Blues uniform.
Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, FOR, 6.6m, 5.1% owned
I already mentioned how there are a lot of overrated forwards in the game. Benteke is probably the most underrated of them all, mainly because no one is paying attention to Villa as they are headed for relegation. Benteke has been a great option almost all season long and he’s only getting better. He has six goals and an assist in his last five matches. Villa has not won any of those games, but he’s still fighting.
It makes you wonder what people are actually looking at when setting their lineups and making transfers. Benteke is on 17 percent less squads than Tevez, it makes absolutely no sense. The season is running to an end, don’t be stuck with overpriced, overrated players at the end of the year.
WEEKLY TIP
There are no weekly rankings because you should pick up all of the players I listed above. Also, there’s only one thing you need to know this week, Liverpool and Swansea have a double gameweek.
Liverpool gets two home games against West Brom and Swansea. Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard will be at the top of a lot of lists this week. At 5.0m, Jamie Carragher is also a good grab as he’s started in three straight matches.
Swansea gets QPR at home and then travels to Liverpool a week later. QPR has had trouble scoring and now there are rumors of Loic Remy being out for up to two months. The Swansea backline already got enough promotion from me, but Gerhard Tremmel could also be a good pick at keeper if Michel Vorm misses more time. I talked badly about Michu earlier, but with two matches this might be time for him to break out of his slump. If you go the cheaper route, the Swans have four other viable midfielders that cost less than 6.0m.
YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool
- Robin van Persie, Man United
- Juan Mata, Chelsea
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham
- Wayne Rooney, Man United
Suarez didn’t get anything last week at Manchester City, but it’s almost a certainty that he will in these next two home matches. If you have Suarez, you are captaining him even if RVP is in your squad. In his last three home games, Suarez has four goals and two assists.
Gerrard, who is suddenly the No. 2 overall midfielder, is right behind Suarez for the armband. Just take a look at his goal against City and you won’t have any questions about him. Much like Suarez at home, Stevie G has three goals and four assists in his last four home matches.
Once again RVP was held without a goal or assist, however he surprisingly finished with three bonus points against Fulham. Rooney has taken the lead as of late, but it’s unlikely Van Persie will go three straight matches without hitting the score sheet, especially with a home match. Everton just gave up three goals to Aston Villa if that says anything about their defense at the moment.
Any other week, Mata might be the No. 1 captain option with the way he’s playing. He’s the top midfielder by 18 Fantasy Points and isn’t slowing down even after picking up a knock on his ankle last week. The Spaniard has a goal in three straight matches and now gets a weak Wigan defense at Stamford Bridge.
Bale is carrying Spurs on his back with two vital goals in the past two weeks. They return home to face a hot Newcastle club that just took out Chelsea. Bale’s speed is unmatched and this one could turn out to be an up-and-down, higher scoring game. Tottenham’s last four matches have resulted in just five total goals, but Newcastle’s play as of late should provide for more excitement.
Rooney had to make this list because he’s at home and has scored United’s last three goals. Although I still wouldn’t put him over RVP for captaining.
*Stats up-to-date as of Feb. 4
Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world
GW24/GW25 Wrapped up and Delivered: Guest Post from @RotoZdroik
Guest Post from www.RotoExperts.com
Don’t forget to check out the official FantasyYIRMA preview also available now “GW25 Gareth Bale to sting the Hawthorns”
GW24/GW25 Wrapped up and Delivered
We’re in super speed this week as there are only two days between Gameweek 24 and Gameweek 25. Here is a very quick 10-game review from the midweek matches.
Villa headed toward relegation. Newcastle is alive. QPR playing tough. Man City lackluster. Stoke City lost its defense. Wigan still fighting. Sunderland needs another scorer. Swansea is better than you think. Arsenal comeback. Liverpool lose two points. Everton led by Baines. West Brom still struggling. Norwich shows some life. Tottenham saved by Bale. Fulham better at home. West Ham terrible on road. Man United likes playing from behind. Southampton not an easy win. Reading has another ridiculous come back. Chelsea has another late draw.
See? Now you know everything that happened on Tuesday and Wednesday and it only took a minute.
FORM AND FIXTURES
Here are seven clubs that I would like to highlight because you need to pay attention to them for Fantasy purposes.
The first four are known commodities and are at the top of the table for a reason. The bottom three are not talked about enough and deserve some mentioning.
Club |
Last 6 Matches |
Random Stat | Fixtures |
Manchester United |
16 |
Last loss: Nov. 17 | at FUL, vs. EVE, at QPR |
Manchester City |
13 |
4 wins last 5 matches | vs. LIV, at SOT, vs. CHE |
Tottenham |
12 |
3 straight draws | at WBA, vs. NEW, at WH |
Everton |
11 |
1 loss in last 12 | vs. AVL, at MUN, at NOR |
Reading |
11 |
1 loss in last 6 | vs. SUN, at STK, vs. WIG |
Swansea |
10 |
9 goals allowed on road | at WH, vs. QPR/at LIV |
QPR |
6 |
Unbeaten in 4 straight | vs. NOR, at SWA, vs. MUN |
I’m starting with QPR first because no one is talking about them. No one gave QPR a chance against Manchester City and yet they stopped the giants from scoring. Of course if you listened to Premier League Plus last Friday, you wouldn’t have been high as on City as we predicted a draw.
I’ll start with their defense. Julio Cesar may be old, but he’s still a great keeper. Why else is Real Madrid trying to pick him up? QPR now has three clean sheets in their last four matches. More importantly, those three clean sheets have come against Chelsea, Tottenham and Man City. No one else in the league has had a similar stretch.
On the other end of that, their offense has been struggling, but still gets some looks. Adel Taarabt is their best attacker and had a few chances against City. At 5.7m he is still a great value. Loic Remy scored in his debut and also deserves a look.
Get a Swansea defender on your squad. In 12 road matches, they have allowed just nine goals, best in the Premier League. It wouldn’t hurt to add one of their defenders who are all under 5.0m. Ben Davies is the most desirable as he gets forward a lot. One thing to keep an eye on is Michel Vorm and his transfer status. There are reports that Man United and Barcelona are fighting for the keeper. That would mean that Gerhard Tremmel would get the permanent job in net at 4.1m. Also, they have a double in Gameweek 26 so that’s something to prepare for.
One of the bigger surprises in the above table is that Everton and Reading have the same amount of points in their last six matches. The overall difference is that Everton has a 12-spot lead in the main table.
Reading has a favorable upcoming schedule, which only helps. They have two home matches against Sunderland and Wigan and then go on the road to a struggling Stoke. Adam Le Fondre has not started in a while, but he has five goals in the last three matches. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get the start against Sunderland. Jimmy Kebe and Pavel Pogrebnyak also deserve a look. If you need a fifth defender, there’s no reason not to go for someone on their back line as they are all 4.0m or less.
Tottenham still needs to be looked at even though they are coming off three straight draws. Their next three opponents (WBA, Newcastle, West Ham) have been struggling and that should open for at least one or two wins in the upcoming stretch. Michael Dawson is a great value at 4.5m and should be looked at no matter what your situation.
Looking at the two Manchester’s, the safe route will be to go for United players. They get Everton, Fulham and QPR while City has to face Liverpool, Chelsea and then Southampton on the road.
The conversation between Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie has never been stronger after Rooney nabbed a brace against Southampton. As he is a little cheaper, there is a good reason for people to get Rooney over RVP. Here’s some more reasoning behind that decision.
Take a look at my rankings below and some of the points I just made are reflected into them. Cesar and Tremmel are at the top of the goalkeepers list for a reason. Those are just two examples, but there are plenty more players to get on clubs you normally don’t think about.
WEEKLY RANKINGS
Goalkeepers
- Julio Cesar, QPR, 4.9m, vs. Norwich
- Gerhard Tremmel, Swansea, 4.1m, at West Ham
- Tim Howard, Everton, 5.5m, vs. Aston Villa
- Joe Hart, Man City, 6.9m, vs. Liverpool
- David de Gea, Man United, 5.5m, at Fulham
Defenders
- Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.5m, vs. Aston Villa
- Patrice Evra, Man United, 7.1m, at Fulham
- Ben Davies, Swansea, 4.3m, at West Ham
- Gael Clichy, Man City, 5.6m, vs. Liverpool
- Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea, 7.1m, at Newcastle
- Fabio, QPR, 4.2m, vs. Norwich
- Bacary Sagna, Arsenal, 5.2m, vs. Stoke City
- Phil Jagielka, Everton, 6.0m, vs. Aston Villa
- Phil Jones, Man United, 5.6m, at Fulham
- Kyle Walker, Tottenham, 6.1m, at West Brom
Midfielders
- Juan Mata, Chelsea, 10.1m, at Newcastle
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal, 9.4m, vs. Stoke City
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.8m, at West Brom
- Marouane Fellaini, Everton, 7.6m, vs. Aston Villa
- Adel Taarabt, QPR, 5.7m, vs. Norwich
- David Silva, Man City, 9.4m, vs. Liverpool
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, 9.4m, at Man City
- Michu, Swansea, 8.3m, at West Ham
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.5m, at Newcastle
- Yohan Cabaye, Newcastle, 6.6m, vs. Chelsea
Forwards
- Robin van Persie, Man United, 14.1m, at Fulham
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.5m, at Man City
- Demba Ba, Chelsea, 8.9m, at Newcastle
- Wayne Rooney, Man United, 11.8m, at Fulham
- Carlos Tevez, Man City, 8.9m, vs. Liverpool
- Sergio Aguero, Man City, 10.9m, vs. Liverpool
- Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.3m, vs. Stoke City
- Jermaine Defoe, Tottenham, 8.2m, at West Brom
- Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, 6.5m, at Everton
- Adam Le Fondre, Reading, 4.7m, vs. Sunderland
- Rickie Lambert, Southampton, 6.4m, at Wigan
- Steven Fletcher, Sunderland, 7.1m, at Reading
YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN
- Robin van Persie, Man United
- Juan Mata, Chelsea
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool
My captain rankings look very similar to last week’s. This is mainly because we are more than halfway through the campaign and we know who the best players are. In addition to that, the big name players are all performing up to their potential ,which never seems to happen. Of course after saying this, one of these guys will get hurt or go on a cold streak.
Surprisingly, the only player that didn’t back up my rankings last week was RVP. He had a few chances, but was denied by keeper Artur Boruc. While his 10-game scoring streak was snapped, you don’t have to worry about him because of that. No one else in the league has had a 10-game scoring stretch. Van Persie had to be stopped at some point. Fulham plays solid defense at home, but that shouldn’t matter against the Red Devils.
Mata had a slow start to the season, which saw his value dip as low as 8.9m. Hopefully, you picked him up then because his value has only gone up since. The Spaniard now costs 10.1m and for good reason. He has at least two bonus points in six of his last nine matches. That usually means good things. Chelsea is on the road, but I wouldn’t put money on Newcastle holding them to a clean sheet.
Walcott deserves the next spot in my rankings for two reasons: He’s on fire and Stoke’s defense has been non-existent as of late. Walcott has now scored in three straight matches and has seven goals and five assists in the past eight games. Once a solid defense, Stoke City has allowed 15 goals in their last five matches.
Gareth Bale is fast and he has a great left foot. That was all on display in his equalizer scored at Norwich on Wednesday. Spurs are on the road again and against a very questionable defense in West Brom. While the Baggies are in the top half of the table, they have allowed more goals than any other club also in that position.
I pondered leaving Suarez off this list mainly because Man City has four straight clean sheets. The problem with that is they haven’t played Luis Suarez in those games. Suarez is on fire with six goals in his last five matches. City has to give up a goal at some point.
*Stats up-to-date as of Jan. 30
(ed. Since time of article, it now looks as if Mata may miss the GW25 fixture)
By @RotoZdroik
About the Author
Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world.
There’s a draft coming from that bloody window!!!
Closing time: The frantic ending to the transfer window
The music has stopped, the bouncers are putting chairs on the tables and there are football managers staggering around and looking for whatever they can get their hands on.
Alright, maybe that is a bit extreme, but the last few hours of the transfer window can often have the feel of a local nightclub with a questionable reputation. Virtually everyone is available if you’ve got the right moves, but you might pick up somebody you’ll regret in the morning.
Ever since the introduction of summer and winter transfer windows, it is the closure of both rather than the opening which always makes big news.
Sky television have turned the bi-annual event into a frantic soap opera all of their own, as men and women in a TV studio shout to reporters stationed in car parks full of expectant youngsters, all of whom are waiting to hear the news that a tireless midfielder from Feyenoord has passed his medical and completed his season-long loan. Cue the cheers.
The quality of these pantomimes have been on a steady decline since 1st September 2008, the day that the city of Manchester welcomed Robinho and Dimitar Berbatov to their two Premier League football clubs amidst the kind of against-the-clock drama that Jack Bauer usually monopolises.
The fact that now, two-and-a-half years after Robinho last kicked a ball for Manchester City, his unwitting co-star Berbatov surely stands on the verge of leaving Manchester United wouldn’t even have been considered back then. Both players, at £30m plus the rest, were going to be superstars for their new clubs, regardless of what anybody thought.
Berbatov’s performances at United can be debated over until all involved are blue in the face, but it would take a really convincing argument to state that he was worth the money that United shelled out on him back then, whilst it might take a hypnotist to convince you that Liverpool were right to spend a similar amount two-and-a-half years later on Andy Carroll, another who could be on the move again this week.
Yet at the time it was all about the thrill of spending. The clubs were operating against the clock and wanted to make their move, Liverpool in particular following their windfall from the Fernando Torres sale to Chelsea.
Were they not operating against the clock the club would not have shelled out the cash that they did on Carroll. The player was a confirmed target, but the Reds were happy to wait until the summer for him to get in their taxi. The offer they got for Torres sped up a manic process.
And that is what the final few hours of the transfer window are. Manic.
Clubs blinded by the thrill of the chase and the money involved make huge moves, and they are often false ones. QPR stayed up by the narrowest of margins last season after spending big in each window, almost creating new teams as they did so and removing the character and team spirit which had got them to the Premier League in the first place.
Staging the end of the window after the first matches of the league season doesn’t exactly help matters either, and can lead to players refusing to play for their clubs in a bid to force through moves as seen in the cases of Luka Modric and Clint Dempsey.
One of those got his transfer, and the other one will eventually. Players know that if they flirt with moves for long enough they’ll get what and who they want.
Maybe ultimately that’s what everyone desires.
The player gets his move, the manager gets to experience the thrill of the chase, the fans get to watch the drama unfold. In the background, the agent counts his money.
All of them were in the dodgy nightclub in the first place, so they must have known that it would end like this.
No-one goes home early and alone on deadline day, after all.