Guest Post: Midfield Selection Advice (By @shots_on_target)
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A few days ago I took a look at 5 budget midfielders whose performances in the Premier League had caught my eye, based on their FPL points to date plus their underlying stats that led to those points. ( http://shotsontarget.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/5-budget-midfield-options.html )
The midfield options for an FPL side are one of the most important areas of the team. Upfront can tend to pick itself at times and many elect to play a 3 man defence so the midfield is all important and a potential conundrum.
This article looks at some midprice options, ones that offer no surprise to anyone reading this I’m sure, but their attention is warranted, both on FPL points scored and underlying stats. In a future post (soon) I am going to look at the 5 midfielders in this price range that have come in under the radar.
What to expect of a midprice midfielder?
I’m putting midprice at £6.0 – 8.0m. Based on the rationale outlined in the budget midfielder’s post, I’m gonna aim for a target of 150 FPL points, or roughly 4 pts/game. This will require an offensive points tally of about 60 points, which equates to 10+ goals, or 5 goals and 10 assists.
Looking at last season the kind of players who were getting close or exceeding this tally in the midprice bracket were Ben Arfa, James Morrison, Sessengon, Yaya Toure and Walters – so not too many.
Here’s a look at players this year that are showing some early promise. There are no surprises but I’ve taken their current form based on underlying stats only and projected expected points scored in their next 6 fixtures. I’ve also extrapolated this points projection to a price value based on ?1m netting you 20 pts, as explained a little in the budget midfielder’s post.
Any comments, queries or suggestions, do let me know. Thanks 🙂
Hatem Ben Arfa – Newcastle (£7.7m)
The most expensive player in this list and rightly so from his form end of last season. I remember reading a piece in the Observer last year that one day he might be “the best player in the world” (his words). He’s certainly an option in this price range. He’s scored two goals this season from only two shots on target but Newcastle have not had the easiest of fixtures so there’s sure to be more to come. Upcoming fixtures are mixed.
Next 6 fixtures: EVE (A) NOR (H) RDG (A) MUN (H) SUN (A) WBA (H)
Current Form Projected Points =27 pts 4.5pts/game Projected Value= £8.5m
Damien Duff – Fulham (£6.1m)
Good old Damien Duff. I don’t know what to make of him really. Fairly unfashionable fantasy option despite his advanced role in a fairly attacking team. This season he had a good game against Norwich at home on the opening day, as may be expected, with 2 key passes, 2 shots and 1 on target (1 goal) but followed that up in two tricky away games against Utd and West Ham with a further key pass, 3 shots, 2 on target, including a goal at Old Trafford. To be honest I would not own him although Fulham’s upcoming fixtures offer hope. Too unfashionable 😉
Next 6 fixtures: WBA (H) WIG (A) MCI (H) STO (A) RDG (A)
Current Form Projected Points = 26pts, 4.3 pt/game. Projected Value = £8m
Marouane Fellaini – Everton (£6.9m)
Asa lifelong Evertonian I love this guy. Who remembers his Zidane like pirouette against City a couple of years ago? Moyes has been playing him up front in support of Jelavic since Tim Cahill’s form declined last year. He’s scored 2 goals so far and been more involved in the attacking play than any other Everton player. He’s shown he can score goals in the past too. Midway through his first season Moye’s shoe-horned him up front due an all too frequent striker crisis… He bagged 8 goals in 20 something games. This is having played as a defensive midfielder his whole life. Quality. No real tricky fixtures in the next 6 either, and that includes Liverpool 🙂
Next 6 fixtures: NEW (H) SWA (A) SOT (H) WIG (A) QPR (A) LIV (H)
Current Form Projected Points = 31pts, 5.2 pt/game. Projected Value = £9.8m
Kevin Nolan – West Ham (£6.1m)
The only really thing you need to say about Kevin Nolan is … the guy scores goals. Senior career stats are bobbing about the 1 goals in 4 games mark and under Allardyce and playing off Carroll he should thrive, as he’s shown already with two goals. He is well priced and still a differential. If he was in my team I would be delighted. Can he get 10 goals this season? I doubt it, maybe 6-8 and a few assists, but with some tasty looking fixtures on the horizon he is my value for money pick in this price range.
Next 6 fixtures: NOR (A) SUN (H) QPR (A) ARS (H) SOT (H) WIG (A)
Current Form Projected Points = 29pts, 4.8 pt/game. Projected Value = £9.1m
Michu – Swansea (£7.3m)
Michu, Michu, Michu. I am pleased to Michu. Michu were here. I Michu already. A fantasy darling in the making, scoring 15 goals in La Liga last year and 4 already in the Prem. this season. He’s scored with every shot he’s had on target and no one expects him to keep up this goal return but he is still at the sharp end in a very good attacking team. Clearly a bargain at ?6.5m he still offers value after a ?0.8m price rise, however, the fixtures are starting to stiffen up. Don’t hold on too long if the Swansea’s bubble starts to burst, he’s not superman,
Next 6 fixtures:AVL (A) EVE (H) STO (A) RDG (H) WIG (H) MCI (A)
Current Form Projected Points = 25pts, 4.2 pt/game. Projected Value = ?7.9m
Of these 5 I own Michu and have owned him since GW1, and am obviously chuffed with his FPL points so far. Delighted! But I am itching to cash in. I don’t think he can keep this form up, although he’ll probably achive the same ballpark points tally as the others on this list. But you have to take a look Fellaini and Nolan as money saving alternatives. Give me a free transfer and I’d swap my Michu for Fellaini.
Guest Blogger Profile: @shots_on_target
Football and stats fan who finds nirvana within the game of fantasy football!!
Posted on 14 Sep 2012, in Player Selection and tagged ben arfa, best fantasy football signings, duff, EPL, Everton, Fantasy Premier League, fellaini, football, FPL, Fulham, Michu, nolan. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.