Blog Archives
Gameweek 25 preview: Gareth Bale to sting The Hawthorns?
The closure of the January transfer window may excite manic Sky Sports News presenters, the Twitter rumour-mongers and Harry Redknapp, but Fantasy bosses are often better off just sticking to what they know.
At this point of the season – pretty much exactly two-thirds of the way through – you’ll know who you can rely on in your team, who you’ll be keeping an eye on bringing in and who you desperately need to get rid of. New arrivals into the division shouldn’t alter that.
Of course there are those new players who can arrive into the Premier League and immediately take it by storm – Papiss Cisse last season anyone? – but the bedding in period often needed by foreign imports makes adding any deadline day signing to your team a risk. At least this weekend anyway.
No, it would be better to go with the tried and tested ahead of an intriguing set of games, and there aren’t many players in the division this season who have proved their worth more than Tottenham’s Gareth Bale (£9.8m).
The Welshman’s fine solo goal at Carrow Road on Wednesday night was a 10th Premier League strike of the season, and with eight of those 10 coming in matches away from White Hart Lane – in which he can make more use of the space afforded to him – then the winger will be the man to watch when Spurs visit West Brom on Sunday afternoon.
The Baggies have only won two of their last 11 in the league, and so whilst you don’t want Bale running at you at the best of times it is likely to be especially tough for Steve Clarke’s men to cope with the confidence of the winger here. Bale could score big.
Elsewhere, the headline match of the weekend is probably the last one, as Manchester City welcome Liverpool in a contest which the hosts will need to win after dropping points at QPR last time out.
Sergio Aguero (£10.9m) returned to the team there and should definitely be considered here, but even though Liverpool are facing a tough game the eagle-eyed Fantasy bosses will have noted that they have a Double Gameweek coming up next time around which brings home matches against West Brom and Swansea. Luis Suarez (£10.5m) is only going to see his price go up. More on him next week…
Reading’s Adam Le Fondre (£4.7m) might be a slightly less talked about forward than Suarez, but he proved more than his worth with the two late goals which earned a point against Chelsea in midweek, and at home to Sunderland he’ll be backed by many to find the net again. If you need a cheap forward to supplement your big boys then there are few better options at the moment.
Defensively, the scope for clean sheets doesn’t look all too great this weekend, but although QPR’s match at home to fellow strugglers Norwich will be full of new Rangers players introducing themselves to one another, it might just see the home side keep it tight at the back.
After the 3-0 loss at home to Liverpool before the turn of the year, Redknapp’s boys have kept back-to-back clean sheets at Loftus Road against opposition of the calibre of Tottenham and Manchester City, as well as shutting out Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
The Canaries should offer little to be worried about then, and after playing 90 minutes in each of QPR’s last four games the on-loan Manchester United defender Fabio da Silva (£4.2m) could just be worth considering if you need to add a cheap defender to make room elsewhere.
At the other end of the scale Leighton Baines (£7.5m) is the game’s most expensive defender and he’ll be looking to follow-up his brace against West Brom when Everton entertain Aston Villa, but the Blues have only kept two clean sheets at home all season and so Christian Benteke (£6.5m) shouldn’t be discounted for the visitors.
Finally and not too far away at Wigan, the hosts will hope that the increasingly effective Franco di Santo (£5.3m) impresses as they host Southampton on Saturday.
That’s if no-one else has signed him by then of course…
Stoke City: Maintaining the status quo
If you weren’t aware of just who was where in the Premier League table ahead of the midweek matches, it wouldn’t really surprise you to know that Stoke City are 10th.
They’ve pretty much always been there ever since their promotion from the Championship in 2008, bar a 3-1 defeat at Bolton in their first ever Premier League match which saw one attention-seeking bookmaker immediately pay out on the team to be relegated.
In the following years, such a move has been shown to be even more ridiculous than it looked back then.
Under manager Tony Pulis, Stoke have never been in relegation trouble at the end of any of their four completed Premier League seasons – instead focusing on an FA Cup final at the end of one of them and always proving to be one of the least appealing fixtures for any top flight team.
A lot of the attention is of course focused on the direct way that Stoke play, but Pulis, his players and the club’s fans won’t apologise for that. It is overblown anyway, and quite frankly why should they say sorry?
All teams should look to play to their strengths, and whilst the majority see their strengths change over time with the appointments of different managers and the signings of new players, Stoke’s style remains the same. Their strength is their strength.
They’ve been in the top flight for long enough now for people to look to combat it too, but with players such as Robert Huth, Ryan Shawcross, Steven Nzonzi and recently Kenwyne Jones all impressing this season, once again they’ll be nowhere near the drop zone come the end of the campaign. Flying in their face of their reputation, tidy, technical players such as Matthew Etherington and Michael Kightly have done well too.
Pulis has got all of his men to give every ounce of sweat for the club’s cause.
It may be the status quo that Stoke are where they are in the league, but where they are is surely the best position that a club of their size, infrastructure and value can be in. If that doesn’t deserve praise then what does?
It is easy for the neutrals to love Swansea – the opponents who beat Stoke 3-1 in their last Premier League match – and indeed to appreciate the football often played by Wigan – who the Potters face at the Britannia Stadium on Tuesday night – but whilst those two have survived in the top division by doing things their own way, Stoke’s similar story has been overlooked somewhat, with the focus instead on just how they’ve gone about their stay in the division.
Maybe they are victims of their own success.
Stoke have never really been in relegation trouble and so as such it is not seen as a great achievement when they do survive in the division, as they will do this season and in all likelihood for seasons to come.
They have become one of the constants of the Premier League, with their name now known continent-wide thanks to a run in the Europa League last season, another curiously under-celebrated feat that perhaps deserved a little more attention. Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle line up in the knockout stages of the tournament next month, and you can bet that more people will be talking about them.
They and you might not like Stoke’s approach to the game but surely it should be respected?
They haven’t become top division mainstays by accident. It has taken a lot of hard work to get them where they are.
And that is right in the middle of the Premier League, where they are likely to stick around for quite a while yet.
The Lamb’s Wild(card)
As a Derby County fan, @pedro_lamb‘s only involvement with the Premier League is through the Fantasy Premier League game.
An avid FPL player, The Lamb’s imaginatively –titled team Lamb County have managed to claw themselves up to 32,964th in the overall game this season, as well as 149th in Yirma and an impressive third in the Yirma head-to-head league.
With the end of January approaching, The Lamb settled down to make a decision that he knew would make or break his season, his bank balance and his mood until August. It was Wildcard time.
Here are The Lamb’s thoughts – and only HIS thoughts – as he takes on every Fantasy manager’s biggest challenge.
Warning: the following is not for the faint-hearted:
Who needs goalkeepers anyway?
Well it’s January and my head hurts, as I cut, bring in, drop, select, then re-drop, then re-select, finally drop him and then keep the same player I had to start off with……!!! Yep, it’s the pain of playing your January transfer Wildcard.
So I think I have finally decided on my team. One, because the deadline is nearly here, and most importantly two, if I spend any more time on the website I think my boss may sack me.
I have gone for a very radical move. Very radical.
Prepare yourselves…
My team doesn’t have a first choice keeper… Or in fact a second choice keeper…
I have selected two keepers who have more chance of being elected Prime Minister of Greenland than playing for their teams.
If they do play, I would be more than happy to drop them to have the current Prime Minister of Greenland Kuupik Kleist as my goalkeeper.
This bold – some would say visionary – idea has freed up enough funds to have both Mata and Bale in my team.
The more I think about it, not having a keeper, is it such a bad idea? And the answer is No, because even this season’s best scoring keeper Begovic, is averaging less than 4 points a game, both Mata and Bale are over 5 and over 38 Gameweeks, that is an additional 76 points, need I say any more? *Please don’t – Ed.*
The Lamb shoots and scores with another genius Fantasy Football idea. All hail the Lamb. The days of making Lucas Leiva captain and selecting the potentially brilliant Tom Huddlestone are behind me. This one’s a winner.
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Time for a few more Wildcard thoughts.
I have waited as long as possible in case the transfer windows kicks off in a big way, sadly it hasn’t so I won’t be bringing in some of the young guns from the Championship that have been on every transfer gossip page throughout January.
So it looks like Will Hughes won’t be the big gamble for my team, he would have been cheap and made a lot of points, he could be next years must have cheap player, the new Charlie Adam in fantasy football terms!!! You heard it here first folks. *giggles*
The biggest problem with this window has been the unknown factor. Which of the January signings will actually get decent time on the pitch?
Ba is a prime example. He’s cheap and can score, but realistically are Chelsea going to keep Torres and his £50 million price tag on the bench? I can’t see it and I think he is destined to just make weekly cameo appearances.
Then there is Sturridge, but I am sorry you can’t overlook Suarez, he just too good at the minute, and again I can’t see Sturridge playing every game.
As for City, the main problem is ‘will he won’t he?’ It’s everybody’s favourite Italian again.
If Mario Balotelli goes then maybe I will invest in Aguero, but at the moment two games could go by and he’ll only get a few minutes on the pitch.
Also the inconsistent nature of Arsenal means selecting any of their players is going to be a very irritating. Some weeks they will be brilliant and other weeks they bring a whole new meaning to the word awful.
Despite this I suggest picking Theo Walcott. Now his future has been sorted I think this may settle him and the whole squad down, so maybe that famous Arsenal consistency might just return.
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No goalkeepers were harmed in the giving of this advice.
Fantasy Premier League: GW24 Insight from @RotoZdroik
The guest posts have been coming through thick and fast of late and here at FantasyYIRMA we always welcome good content!
Adam is a staff writer from www.RotoExperts.com – an extremely well respected Fantasy sports site based in the USA. Delighted to feature his thoughts on the upcoming fixtures in GW24.
As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.
The Return of Steven Gerrard
FIVE FOR FIGHTING
Maybe Demba Ba isn’t worth it.
Wait, what?! Am I saying that the 500,000 people that grabbed Ba last week made a mistake? Yes, sort of.
Ba basically started in every match at Newcastle because he was their best chance at scoring. Chelsea plays more games (FA Cup, Capital One Cup, Europa League) and has a deeper roster. Ba will not be starting every match, which is what we saw this past weekend. Fernando Torres was rested for a few games, but got the start against Arsenal. Ba will definitely get his chances to score, but at 8.9m do 37 percent of owners need him on their roster? No. Forwards like Rickie Lambert, Christian Benteke and Dimitar Berbatov will get more playing time and score plenty at a cheaper value.
Don’t spend on defence.
This wasn’t really something we just found out, but it’s still important and something you need to know. Look at these numbers at each position.
No. 5 Goalkeeper: Jussi Jaaskelainen, 83 Fantasy Points
No. 15 Goalkeeper: Ben Foster, 54 FP (29-point difference)
No. 5 Defender: Daniel Agger, 84 FP
No. 30 Defender: Ashley Williams, 62 FP (22-point difference)
No. 5 Midfielder: Eden Hazard, 122 FP
No. 30 Midfielder: Damien Duff, 72 FP (50-point difference)
No. 5 Forward: Steven Fletcher, 112 FP
No. 20 Forward: Peter Crouch, 74 FP (38-point difference)
I used different numbers at GK and FOR because obviously, there are fewer players at those positions. It’s pretty evident where you want to spend your money and it’s not either defensive position. Going even further for goalkeepers, Joe Hart costs between 1-2m more than every other GK in the game and he’s still only the third best.
Why is Leighton Baines the third most owned defender when he’s also the most expensive? He’s not RVP. Everton actually had a streak of 16 straight games without a clean sheet which makes that even more questionable. Save a couple million and buy someone like Joey O’Brien who only has 16 less FP. That price is the difference between having Suarez or Nikica Jelavic on your squad. That’s a big difference.
Steven Gerrard looks to be back to his golden days. Photo Credit: Ruaraidh Gillies
Midfield is the way to go.
Van Persie and Luis Suarez are the top strikers in the Fantasy game, far and away. Those two have a chance at scoring in every single match no matter where or who they play.
I mentioned Ba earlier, who’s the second most owned forward. Carlos Tevez, Jermaine Defoe and Fernando Torres are next in line in ownership percentages. Tevez has fallen off lately and is getting outscored by Edin Dzeko as of late, not to mention Sergio Aguero just returned from injury. Defoe has one goal in his last eight starts, which isn’t going to cut it. Torres is Torres.
Why not focus on the top echelon of midfielders who have been dominant this season? Mata leads the way along with teammate Eden Hazard. Gareth Bale is always a threat and Theo Walcott is playing in a new role and is scoring for fun. The latest Spaniards to have taken the Premier League by storm are Michu and Santi Cazorla.
I can keep going with this list too. David Silva. Marouane Fellaini has been great this year. Aaron Lennon is having one of his best years in the BPL. Adel Taarabt has bonus points in five of his last seven matches.
The return of Leiva Lucas has given Steven Gerrard a more attacking role and he’s relishing it, looking like the Gerrard from his 2008-09 days. This current scoring version of Gerrard, we have not seen in a long, long time. All of a sudden, Stevie G has four goals and eight assists in his last 10 games. He had just two goals and three assists in the first 13 games. In the two previous campaigns, he had combined for only nine goals and seven assists. We are now in the days of Gerrard.
There are so many midfielder options right now that you should be starting four or five every week and if you aren’t, you’ll be left in the dust.
WEEKLY RANKINGS
Goalkeepers
- David de Gea, Man United, 5.5m, vs. Southampton
- Joe Hart, Man City, 6.9m, at QPR
- Asmir Begovic, Stoke City, 5.8m, vs. Wigan
- Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, 5.9m, at Norwich
- Petr Cech, Chelsea, 6.4m, at Reading
Defenders
- Patrice Evra, Man United, 7.1m, vs. Southampton
- Gael Clichy, Man City, 5.6m, at QPR
- Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea, 7.1m, at Reading
- Phil Jones, Man United, 5.6m, vs. Southampton
- Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.5m, vs. West Brom
- Kyle Walker, Tottenham, 6.1m, at Norwich
- Glen Johnson, Liverpool, 6.4m, at Arsenal
- Bacary Sagna, Arsenal, 5.2m, vs. Liverpool
- Sascha Riether, Fulham, 5.0m, vs. West Ham
- Ben Davies, Swansea, 4.3m, at Sunderland
Midfielders
- Juan Mata, Chelsea, 10.0m, at Reading
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal, 9.4m, vs. Liverpool
- David Silva, Man City, 9.4m, at QPR
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.8m, at Norwich
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, 9.4m, at Arsenal
- Michu, Swansea, 8.3m, at Sunderland
- Marouane Fellaini, Everton, 7.6m, vs. West Brom
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
- Aaron Lennon, Tottenham, 7.2m, at Norwich
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
Forwards
- Robin van Persie, Man United, 14.1m, vs. Southampton
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.5m, at Arsenal
- Edin Dzeko, Man City, 7.5m, at QPR
- Carlos Tevez, Man City, 8.9m, at QPR
- Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, 6.5m, vs. Newcastle
- Wayne Rooney, Man United, 11.8m, vs. Southampton
- Demba Ba, Chelsea, 8.9m, at Reading
- Fernando Torres, Chelsea, 9.5m, at Reading
- Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.3m, vs. Liverpool
- Nikica Jelavic, Everton, 8.0m, vs. West Brom
YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN
- Robin van Persie, Man United
- Juan Mata, Chelsea
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal
- David Silva, Man City
Robin van Persie will be playing at home against a club that has allowed the second most goals on the road this season. It doesn’t get any better than that. RVP has 10 goals in his last 10 league matches to go with four assists. He leads the Premier League in goals and has the second most assists for a forward.
While there are some nice matchups this week, it might be harder than you’d think for choosing your captain outside of RVP. Man City has a tricky road battle against a QPR side that has been playing well. Arsenal and Liverpool face each other at the Emirates. Tottenham travel to Norwich, a team that’s struggling, but has also only allowed 13 goals in 11 home matches. Chelsea have what looks to be an easy match at Reading, but the Royals have been playing well as of late, winning three straight matches in all competitions.
Reading may be playing better, but I’m still going with Mata as the second best captain this week. He’s been extremely consistent as of late with four goals and five assists in his past nine matches. That includes a goal or assist in five straight road games.
This next choice is the toughest. I’m going with Luis Suarez because I think there will be goals in that game and he and Daniel Sturridge will cause problems all day for the Gunners back line. Not to mention Suarez is on fire with six goals and two assists in his last six games.
Walcott is in that same conversation with Suarez. He’s playing a more central role which has opened up opportunities for him. He’s scored at least six Fantasy Points in six of his last seven matches and one of those was a 26-point outburst. Liverpool has been better defensively in recent weeks, but this road test could bring trouble.
My last choice goes to David Silva. He deserves it after last week’s two-goal performance against Fulham. The absence of Yaya Toure allowed him more range in front of the net. Even though QPR will be a tough task, City should be able to score at least once and Silva will be around it.
*Stats up-to-date as of Jan. 28
By @RotoZdroik
About the Author
Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world.
Gameweek 24 PREVIEW: Time for Wayne to reign again?
There has only been one star in Manchester United’s and in 44.8% of Fantasy Premier League teams’ seasons.
Robin van Persie (£14.1m) has been the main man, the top goalscorer, the top points scorer, the man outshining all the others. He has looked indestructible. He even survived that attack from Ashley Williams at Swansea before Christmas.
The man eclipsed by the rise and rise of Van Persie’s star has been Wayne Rooney (£11.8m), as frequent injuries and frustrations have left him looking enviously at his team’s Dutch master and wondering just how he let a top billing that he used to own slip so easily into the former Arsenal man’s grasp. Just recently though, he’s been making hay whilst Van Persie was away.
Alright, they were in the FA Cup. And okay, he did hopelessly miss a penalty in the West Ham game, but Rooney has found the net in each of United’s last two matches at Old Trafford – matches that Van Persie was rested for – and so should be in a confident mood ahead of the visit of Southampton on Wednesday night.
The forward is itching to impress after scoring just seven Premier League goals this season, and he could just be the key to a strong ending to the season for both United and for your Fantasy team.
As the pressure cranks up, each and every win for United looks more and more important as they seek yet another title. Sir Alex Ferguson could find himself turning to the man who has been there and done it before in a bid to get over the line.
That bid could start on Wednesday.
Elsewhere during this midweek Gameweek – everyone loves a midweek Gameweek don’t they? – there will be tales of cup woe to be shared at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal meet Liverpool.
Supporters of Bradford City and Oldham Athletic can watch that one with smug smiles on their faces, and one man that Liverpool will need to watch closely will be the Gunners forward Olivier Giroud (£7.8m), who could just shunt Theo Walcott (£9.4m) out to the right of midfield again following his excellent recent form.
There were also cup woes for Norwich and QPR at the weekend, and they don’t look like disappearing in the league as the duo host Tottenham and Manchester City respectively. Gareth Bale (£9.8m) and David Silva (£9.4m) look to be the men to watch.
Rafael Benitez takes his Chelsea team to Reading, and in amongst the usual suspects in his Blues side – although there’s no Eden Hazard here of course – it could also be worth looking at the visitors’ defence, particularly the Spanish right-back Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.7m) who has racked up four assists since becoming more of a regular in the Blues’ team in November. Against a Reading outfit who have been known to leak goals at home, he’ll be looking to get forward.
Everton should also be on the front foot in their match against a stuttering West Brom, and many bosses will be hoping that Marouane Fellaini (£7.7m) can return to scoring ways after failing to find the net since December 1st. Meanwhile, Nikica Jelavic (£8.0m) has lost support following just one goal in 12 games.
One man who is more used to hitting the back of the net recently is Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke (£6.5m), and with the Belgian forward providing one of very few rays of light amidst the doom and gloom surrounding his club this season, Villa will be looking to him to fire against a similarly out of form Newcastle United at Villa Park.
He can do just that, and ensure that whilst his star still isn’t as high as Van Persie’s or even Rooney’s, it will at least stay on the rise.
Premier League: App Preview “Fantasy Football meets Wall Street”
I think if I was to say that the FantasyYIRMA team were slight fans of Fantasy Football, I’d be locked up for blatent lies…we are clearly nuts about #FPL.
So… when a new #FPL related app lands on the scene we tend to sit up and take notice. Over the past few months we’ve watched with anticipation as Football Trader gets ready to launch! This week’s guest post is an interview with Sohail Godall, Co-Founder of Football Trader.
By @ryano83
If you enjoy #FPL then this could be like an extra free transfer when you’ve had a last minute injury!
FantasyYirma: So tell me about this new Fantasy Football Trading Game app?? There’s been a lot of chat on twitter already about it!
Sohail: We’re launching a new type of Fantasy Football game for the modern fan. Imagine Fantasy Football played on a live stock market, where you buy shares in players live that are constantly changing based on news off the pitch and how they perform on the pitch.
This is basically Football Trader 🙂
FantasyYirma: Interesting, so it’s a sort of Fantasy Football meets Wall Street? Many FPL fans may not be used to the concept of Real-time trading. What made you base your game on this?
Sohail: Well we heard users tweeting and telling us that sometimes current Fantasy Football can just be a “Game of Luck”. Controversial perhaps, but in the end users always pick the same players who score goals/assist or in a team that keeps clean sheets. It’s not a level playing field and half the players in the league are mostly overlooked. (We blogged about this last week here – http://tinyurl.com/a9z6bd8)
The actual gameplay of Fantasy Football games has not evolved much since it started 20 years ago! The points scoring system is very similar.
Football today is inundated with so much information in the media – live breaking player news, transfer speculation, twitter discussion and people are constantly checking their smartphones. We want to bring this together in a game where you can quickly buy/sell players based on how you view a players worth. You read news about them, watch their performance and make a judgement on how you anticipate what they will do in the next games.
It’s all about investing in players you think will do well where you can grow their value.
FantasyYirma: So thinking about that and the real-time aspect, people would jump into the app and buy/sell their players as they hear news?
Sohail: Exactly, think of the Eden Hazard incident the other day. Before the game his stock was high, he had started coming into form and scored. His stock was rising, people were starting to buy him. Then the incident and in an instant he’s sent off and banned for 3 games. His stock falls.
We saw this during our testing this week, his price fell straight after and in our game it would likely fall as people would sell him expecting his price to fall sharply. Those that sell quickly won’t lose out too much, as it’s all about timing. Some might not sell as they think he will come back strong.
It’s all about how you anticipate a player, and every person see this differently 🙂
FantasyYirma: Sounds innovative! I can see the real time aspect appealing to people. So how does the game work? What are the basic rules?
Sohail: I thought you might ask that! See below
FantasyYirma: And for those who have been drawn in on the idea, when’s this all out?
Sohail: It’s been extremely complicated building all this! We are now finally live in a Private Beta testing out bugs on the live market and refining the gameplay. We are open to users wanting to join the Beta and provide feedback (just send us a Tweet at the address below).
Once we get through this, make some changes, we will launch on iPhone and Android by the end of February we hope. Our big launch will be for next season!
FantasyYirma: Many Thanks for your time Sohail, much appreciated and I’m sure there will be FPL fans on the lookout for this! I look forward to my free copy! 😉
See Below for further links on the game, Beta testers are welcome:
Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 1)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
#FY
How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? Stats Analysis
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data.
In this article I want to show how important the analysis of data is but at the same time I am hoping to push the boundaries in terms of stimulating interest in raw football data by looking at data from the 2008-2009 onwards including the current season to find out if there is a correlation between conceding and the strength of a team.
If we look at teams that regularly occupy the Championship League spots and the Europa League places we see a level of consistency that the other teams cannot produce. But are there any variables that preclude established sides such as Spurs from considering winning the EPL?
The Top 6 Sides “FightBack” Analysis
We can see that Arsenal and Manchester City have both conceded first 59 times in the sample and Man City have been the team that have consolidated their position as a Top 2 team while Arsenal have declined in status but have maintained their levels in terms of being consistent regarding the the number of games a season where they concede first. We can also see that although Manchester City have drawn a higher % when conceding first (27%) , it is Arsenal who have only lost 49% of games when conceding first, which is much better than Manchester City as they have lost 57% of the games.
Manchester United have conceded the first goal of the game, the least amount of times (45) and Everton the most (76). There are some key issues to discuss.
- Why have Manchester United conceded the first goal so many times this season (11 at just over the half-way point) compared to 8, 8 ,12 and 6 in the previous seasons in the sample?
I could discuss that the Manchester United midfield is not good enough to protect the defence or that this is a random event that I cannot explain but I will leave that to other football bloggers because as long as Manchester United win their games when they concede first, the relevance of this new trend is weakened. It means that in the EPL when Manchester United concede then there is still expectation that they will win but this is dependent on so many factors so we cannot just put a value on Man United beating Fulham when Fulham scored on 3 minutes to lead 1-0.
– What is the expectation of further goals given that Fulham have scored the first goal on 3 minutes and are the away team?
– Will the expectation of goals increase (greater then calculated before the game started) or impede for both the teams or will the early away goal have an effect on just one team?
What value do we put on Carrick having to play as the emergency centre-half in that game or the laughable own goal by Vidic in the game or the fact that Rooney started on the bench due to lack of form and Nani did not even make the bench for the game?
It is easy to put a figure on the expectation of Man United winning at 1-0 down but much harder to justify that figure without the inclusion of several other variables such as the pitch conditions, the strength of the shots, the accuracy prevention of both teams, the weather conditions, the motivation of both teams and the possible under performance of players on the day plus the fact that Carrick had to play in a position that I do not think he is best suited to. But when Carrick has played centre-back what % of games have Manchester United lost compared to the average which also is irrelevant unless you look at the strength of the team that they play each time Carrick has played in the role.
I remember reading in the paper on the last game of the season(2010-2011) to be advised that Manchester United do not score many goals during the last game of the season. The final score was Manchester United 4 Wolves 2 . The flaw of the argument is that the strength and motivation of both teams and the time of the first goal and the goal expectation and any rain or beach balls or referee blunders or freak goals or Red cards could alter the course of the game.
As Man United are winning 72% of their games when conceding first this season then I do not believe Sir Alex will be losing too much sleep. A problem may occur if they are losing 1-0 to a team like Dortmund or Bayern Munich as they will find it rather tougher to get back in the game than they did against teams at the level of Fulham.
Sir Alex Ferguson has acknowledged that the biggest mistake he made was letting Stam go who I would consider to be one of the best defenders in the History of Manchester United.
Do we believe the story that Sir Alex was advised that Stam was tackling less in games and as a result a perceived view that his best days were behind him or was it as Stam has publicly said that Man United were in financial difficulty and needed the cash flow urgently.
At the petrol station he parked his car and got in with me. He told me that I had to be transferred. Then he said: “Will you please move to Lazio quickly?”
If we look at Everton they have consolidated their position as a top 6 side as far as I am concerned, but recently I was listening to the radio to be advised that “Everton have over achieved this season” and that this is a blip and their levels of performance will drop.
They did not offer any data to back up their prediction and I offer the following in the case for the defence of Everton
- Everton have in Baines and Fellani – two of the best players in the EPL in their positions and I would argue the case for Fellani to be player of the season with the qualities that he brings to the game. If Fellani and Baines were sold then I would re evaluate my thoughts on this by waiting to see who Everton Purchased as replacements. Players such as Howard, Neville and Distan have years of experience but I appreciate that the squad does not have youth on its side.
- Historically Everton have been very consistent finishing no lower then seventh since the 2008-2009 season and Moyes is a fantastic motivator of his squad and I can see him in charge at Old Trafford one day.
- If we look at Everton conceding first which is an excellent indicator of the strength of the team. I am not personally concerned by how many times a team concede but by how they react to the event.
Everton have conceded the first goal in 76 games during the sample but the levels remain very consistent and it has not impeded them from a high finish as they have only lost this season 9% of games when conceding first and in the sample overall they have drawn 34.66% and avoided losing 53.94% of the time. Only Manchester United in the sample of games can boast a better % which is 60.
By Jonny Grossmark
Follow Jonny on twitter
@JonnyGrossmark
Premier League: Mid-Season Review (Part 1)
Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!
FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Midseason Review and will be updating the site throughout the week as part of an ongoing mini-series.
Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk
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Mid-Season Team Analysis – THE TOP SIX
SuperGrover has worked his socks off to bring you a comprehensive review of each and every team in the Premier League, providing his rating and insightful analysis on each team’s performances and how they have turned these into results. A truly great read, this first part covers the current top six teams.
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The festive holiday period presented games thick and fast, with numerous exciting and interesting results. Rather than a week-by-week review, I have decided to use this time to present a mid-season team summary for each Premier League squad. The summary consists of shot data (both for and against), expected goals (scored and allowed), and team ratings both for the full season and over the past six game weeks. In addition, I offer a bit of my own analysis.
Note: Percentages represent difference with league average. Defensive percentages have been reversed meaning a negative percentage actually represents defensive performance below league average. The statistics for this article cover Gameweek’s 1-22 with the exclusion of the Chelsea-Southampton match from GW22.
Starting at the head of the table we have the attacking juggernaut that is Manchester United. The Red Devils have dominated all-comers offensively, scoring seemingly at will whenever they threaten. While the underlying numbers suggest Man United. have been a bit lucky offensively (2.5 goals per game is probably not sustainable – it was last season, SoT!), they are, and most certainly will continue to be, the best attacking team in the league (along with their cross-town rivals, of course).
Defensively, Man United have been better in seasons past, although they have allowed a few more goals than one would have expected given their shot and chance numbers. Anecdotally, it seems opposition teams have a renewed belief in a questionable backline (the Reading game a prime example). Up till now however the typical United response has been to..score more and is responsible for the higher than expected goals on both sides of the pitch.
Fun Fact: United have converted just 2 of 5 (40%) penalties this season. The rest of the league has converted 34 of 43 (79%).
Prediction: Normality returns offensively somewhat and the backline stiffens a bit. Expect a slight reduction in goals on both sides the remainder of the season, but nothing that impacts their championship march.
The defending champions have had quite the first half. Sitting seven points off United, City need to step up in a hurry if a Championship Title defence is in the cards. Offensively, City have really struggled this season. Statistically, they look every bit as dominant as they did last year, but they simply haven’t converted. How much of this is due to Aguero’s fitness issues is unknown, but this team should be scoring more than they are.
Defensively, City are probably a bit better than they were last season, at least in the EPL. They are very clearly the best defensive team in the league. I don’t expect that to change over the remainder of the year.
Fun Fact: City have had at least 5 more shots in the box than their opponents in all but 4 games with only one opponent (Liverpool) able to equal their shots in the box total.
Prediction: Aguero finally gets healthy and the attack starts getting on track by the end of the month. City make a run at United, but the 7 points are too much to overcome. Second place and a new manager are on the horizon.
Two different managers and nothing much has really changed for the Blues. They still remain a superb attack, focused around sensational midfield play by Mata and Hazard. They have scored quite a few more goals than expected, possibly due to the 6 penalties scored, 2 more than anyone else and about 4.5 more than average. Defensively, they’ve been more porous than the goals allowed suggest, with Cech leading the league in save percentage among regular goalies. A top 4 spot looks almost assured with a game in hand and a 4 point lead over 5th. Beyond that, the Blues will be playing for lesser cups both in Europe and domestically.
Fun Fact: Chelsea have scored 6 penalties and has only hit the woodwork twice all season. Both numbers are easily the best among the top 10 teams.
Prediction: Chelsea keep on keeping on. They firmly establish themselves as the 3rd best team in the league, albeit a substantial bit behind the top 2.
Spurs are an interesting club. A mishmash of parts with world class talents sprinkled in (Bale, Vertonghen). Adebayor, in particular, seems a bit out of place at times and one might wonder if his trip to ACON may allow AVB to find a better fit up front. Statistically, Spurs rely on shots outside the box more than most elite attacks, primarily a result of Bale’s prolific ability from 18+ yards out. With that said, their shots on target are as expected and they neatly fit into the model for goals scored.
Defensively, Spurs are excellent at preventing shots but struggled with clear cut opportunities allowed. Should they improve down the stretch they will be one of the very best defensive units in the league, behind City.
Fun Fact: Gareth Bale has the 2nd highest rate of shots on target per minute among regular players in the league behind only Romelu Lukaku.
Prediction: Spurs continue to dominate weaker competition and sure up their backline. The attack comes and goes as quality up front is missing somewhat. Big games against Everton and Arsenal determine which European competition Tottenham play for next season.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the season so far. Everton were expected to be solid, but probably not legitimately compete for the top five. They are and I expect they will continue to do so presuming fitness.
Offensively, Everton have dominated statistically. Fellaini and Jelavic represent physically dominant players and they’ve been able to get into the box against even the best opposition. However, neither have exactly proven to be a clinical striker, Jelavic surprisingly but Fellaini not so, and the resulting conversion rates have been a major drag on goals scored.
Defensively, Everton are a bit underrated, mainly due to the lack of clean sheets. Personally I feel that this is primarily the result of a scheduling quirk which saw them face better attacking opponents at home and lesser opponents on the road. This is a recipe for a bunch of single goal conceded games, something Everton have done twelve times thus far.
Fun Fact: Nikica Jelavic has just 2 goals on his last 40 shots, 35 of which came from inside the box.
Prediction: Everton continue to be statistically elite, but lack the quality that and precision finishing necessary to challenge for a top 4 slot. Clean sheets come more regularly, but tough away fixtures doom Everton to a dog fight for a Europa slot.
Arsenal are definitely in a battle this season to continue their consecutive qualification for one the coveted Champions League spots. Given the entirety of the first half of the season, one would think qualification is unlikely. However, Arsenal has been better when Walcott has been fit (both as a winger and a central forward) so I do believe the chance remains.
To do so, Arsenal is going to need improvement on both ends of the pitch. Offensively, Arsenal generate fewer shots than any other elite side. While this has improved with Walcott, that improvement needs to continue. Defensively, Arsenal are still prone to gaffs, as evidenced by their 12 errors leading to goals conceded, the most in the league. This absolutely must stop or Arsenal may find themselves shut out of Europe altogether.
Fun Fact: The Gunners scored 23 goals in just 4 games (SOT, TOT, NEW, RDG). They have just 17 goals in the other 17 games.
Prediction: Fitness improves in the second half and the backline improves. Walcott finds his place, both as a winger and striker. Arsenal do just enough to edge Everton for 5th.
GW23: Nothing but FPL Bonus Points!
Here are the bonus points for GW23 so far with 1 fixture remaining.
We want to hear from you.
How many points are you on now?
What are your thoughts on the Bonus points this week and this season?
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Who got bonus points that you didn’t think would?
Drop a comment under the article and we will RT all responses on the @FantasyYirma twitter account.
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Liverpool |  |
5 – 0 |  |
Norwich |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Man City |  |
2 – 0 |  |
Fulham |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Newcastle |  |
1 – 2 |  |
Reading |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Swansea |  |
3 – 1 |  |
Stoke City |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | West Ham |  |
1 – 1 |  |
QPR |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Wigan |  |
2 – 3 |  |
Sunderland |
| 19 Jan 17:30 | West Brom |  |
2 – 2 |  |
Aston Villa |
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| 20 Jan 13:30 | Chelsea |  |
2 – 1 |  |
Arsenal |
| 20 Jan 16:00 | Tottenham |  |
1 – 1 |  |
Man Utd |
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| 21 Jan 20:00 | Southampton |  |
0 – 0 |  |
Everton |
| 23 Jan 19:45 | Arsenal |
Giroud 3 Podolski 2 Walcott 1 |
v |
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West Ham |
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