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Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 2)

Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!

As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.

#FY

 

Part 1 of this series is available here

Mid-Table Sides “FightBack” Analysis

Having looked at the Top 6 teams, it is appropriate to look at the teams which sit outside the top six but which were expected at the beginning of the season to find a mid table berth and have no fear of relegation but no thoughts of getting into Europe.

EPL-Fight-Back-Data-2008-2009-to-Jan-13-Mid-Table

I have written extensively about Newcastle this season and they are a very interesting in terms of the phrase “yo- yo’ on the basis that they are a team that goes up and down the EPL table.

Focusing on their inability to fight back when conceding first should have given some doubt in the ability of Pardew to get Newcastle into the Top 6 again this season.

Pardew was awarded the League Managers Association award for last season which is voted for by fellow professional managers and Sir Alex won it in 2011 and this is a prestigious award. In effect this cemented the 8 year contract that Pardew signed to give him time to deliver the first trophy since they won the fairs Cup in 1969.

My question is do we take at face value that Pardew did an excellent job or do we add raw data to the mix to show that last season Newcastle over achieved and a drop in positions was an expected outcome this season with potential that Newcastle could easily drop out of the EPL in the next few seasons again?

If I advise that Pardew does not have the ability to micro manage players you could rightly counter and say that Newcastle finished 5th last year so obviously he must have the mindset to lead his squad and motivate the players on and off the pitch with a solid team behind him.

I would argue that under Pardew, Newcastle have only won 37% of games and that  he has had success with regard to getting teams from the Championship into the EPL but not been able to consolidate on the progress.

It is also a well known fact that at West Ham, Pardew was given media training to be able to connect with the fans more and I express the thought that how well does he communicate with his own players after the BBC described him as a …”distant animal”. I have watched a number of games this season (mainly recorded) looking at the body language of Pardew and apart from writing notes, I have not seen anything to suggest that he commands the loyalty of the players as in too many games this season, Newcastle have given up as soon as they have conceded first and they are also showing an inability to hold onto leads having won just 50% of the games where they scored first this  season which is not top six form and astonishingly since Pardew joined, Newcastle have not won one game when conceding first and their last win was against West Ham in October 2010. Newcastle conceded an early goal scored by Carlton Cole on 12 minutes to “fightback” and Newcastle dominated most of the game under Hughton who I consider to be far more capable as a Manager then Pardew.

Football blogging is at a stage where if it does not fit the model then it must be a random event such as playing snakes and ladders which has zero skill value but I think this is a dangerous route to take as one of the biggest academic arguments is over sample size but in football past performance is not an indicator of future performance although there is no reason to think that Newcastle will become a “fightback” team in the near future.

We are only limited by our interpretation of the data presented. When Spurs beat Wigan 9-1 we can clearly see that this is a random event as there was not expectation at Half Time that Wigan would concede eight second half goals. Newcastle coming 5th last season cannot be explained as a random event but can show the limitations of the understanding of data as we are now in a situation where Pardew is now publicly blaming the players(survival analysis) when he is the one who should be blamed.

Compare this to Sunderland conceding first exactly 17 times over the previous four completed seasons. Is this consistent behaviour random or explained?

By   @JonnyGrossmark

GW22 : The FPL Review

GW22 The Review by @shots_on_target

Check out www.shotsontarget.co.uk for more great articles!

STOCHEp
Those folks who played their wildcard for a Chelsea player or two were well rewarded here, particularly with 3 assists from Juan Mata. Two of his assists were for Walter’s own goals so don’t count as key passes in the data but there’s no denying his ability to produce.  He’s made a habit all season long of playing the key pass or scoring from a limited number of chances.  It’s a sign of real quality.  Stoke managed to put in an average performance against Chelsea but all in all this was a performance of real quality from the Billionaire’s Club (no?).

QPR

So little adventure from a home side but they came away with a point. If this performance sums up QPR’s mentality against superior teams then some more clean sheets may be on the cards.  Tottenham’s ratio of shots in the box to those outside tells the same story as the Chelsea-QPR game did last week –  QPR can defend like their Premier League depends on it, and it probably does.  Bale is at least the equal or perhaps more of a threat in this team than the more orthodox strikers Defoe and Adebayor which serves to underline his value as a truly elite fantasy player.   First game in the Premier League this season too where I think a team has not made any substitutes.

MANU

A rather “average” in game in terms of the stats but there are a few important things to take away.  First of all, breaking news….  Van Persie is sweet fantasy gold.  The rest of United’s team is quite unusually well off the radar.  If anyone one emerges from RVP’s shadow be sure to get a quick look in.  And talking of shadows, this performance from Sturridge may serve to at least obscure Suarez’s flame as Liverpools prima donna attacking force.  Equivalent shots and chance created, twice as many shots in the box and his team;s only goal promotes Sturridge up in my rankings to very interesting indeed.

EVE
Swansea’s performances in games like this really showcases the tactical subtleties of Premier League football.  Not for the first time Laudrup’s team have shown that, when they want to, they can defend against the best attacking teams in the league.  Everton too, and unfortunately for their supporters fans, also demonstrated that when it comes to breaking down a team they have not reached the dizzying heights of attacking, creative football, no matter how taller Fellaini’s hair gets.   The Belgian remained amongst the Toffee’s chief threats though, as well as the off-target Jelavic and the overlooked Anichebe.
NORW

The highlight from this game (and yes there was one) was Cisse’s low overall share of the visitor’s opportunities.  I expected that, in Ba’s absence, and given the role reversal between the two last season as Newcastle’s point striker, and his compatriot’s absence that Pappis Cisse would profit from a significantly increased share of shooting chances.  Not so, at least from this game, albeit a tricky away game and not one from which to form firm conclusion.

ARS
It’s always difficult to assess a game where a player is sent off so early.  Arsenal managed an average league performance against City, as indicated by the yellow arrows, which is not bad with ten men you’d have to say.  However, I’m not convinced.  Giroud has their most shots as a sub in the last third of the game when the game situation is different anyway, moreso with Kompany’s sending off.  City  only managing 3 SoT  though raises a few eyebrows, although the overall stats do not suggest Arsenal were unfortunate not to concede two after they went a man down.

SUN
Sunderland score three goals, and probably just about deserved all three too.  West Ham have made a habit this season of conceding shots but only conceding them outside their box, outside the danger area.  Here, Sunderland got their chances in the box and it’s from these they had most of their chances.  McClean may be set for a resurgence in form which see’s him register the kind of interest that he did this time last season.  Maybe he likes his Mam’s Christmas dinners.

ASTV

Puncheon is a constant threat for Southampton and has all but assured himself a place in the team with the unfortunate injury to Lallana.  Lambert of course scored the goal and despite a decent price rise ahead of the Double GW still represents good value.  If Villa are going to score then you’d think Benteke has to be involved.. but how many will they score?

READ

Personal story – I was at home quietly congratulating myself on backing West Brom’s goalie Foster for a Clean Sheet in my team when #BOOM# from 0-2 to 3-2 in no time at all.  Whereas Reading’s shots where spread incredibly uniformly amongst their players the Baggie’s played everything through the enigmatic Lukaku who’s now scored 9 goals in 947 minutes, that’s essentially a goal per game.

FULH

Several weeks ago I was of the opinion that Fulham were a decent attacking team, one that ultimately may struggle to pick the lock of an out and out defensive team, a la Stoke, but still a team that were prepared to take the game to the opposition, to create chances, and to score goals.  Wigan are exactly the type of team against which I’d expect Fulham to flourish, not necessarily win, but create chances, and score goals.  Even an early goal in this game could not give Fulham a platform to push on.  Wigan’s form over the last 4 has seen them make an improvement on their early season performances and Di Santo built on a run of games back in the team with a top game, admittedly  though in the absence of Arouna Kone.

 

 

Chelsea 2 – 2 Southampton – Report to follow.

GW18 – NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!! #FPL

Gameweek 18
22 Dec 12:45 Wigan Wigan 0 – 1 Arsenal Arsenal
Bonus
22 Dec 15:00 Man City Man City 1 – 0 Reading Reading
Bonus
Silva (2)
Yaya Toure
Barry (3)
22 Dec 15:00 Newcastle Newcastle 1 – 0 QPR QPR
Bonus
Krul (3)
Ameobi (3)
Bonus
Taarabt
22 Dec 15:00 Southampton Southampton 0 – 1 Sunderland Sunderland
Bonus
McClean
Sessegnon (3)
Fletcher (2)
22 Dec 15:00 Tottenham Tottenham 0 – 0 Stoke City Stoke City
Bonus
Begovic (2)
Huth
Whelan (3)
22 Dec 15:00 West Brom West Brom 2 – 1 Norwich Norwich
Bonus
Olsson
Lukaku (2)
Bonus
Snodgrass (3)
22 Dec 15:00 West Ham West Ham 1 – 2 Everton Everton
Bonus
Heitinga (2)
Osman (2)
Pienaar (3)
Anichebe (2)
22 Dec 17:30 Liverpool Liverpool 4 – 0 Fulham Fulham
Bonus
Skrtel
Gerrard (3)
Suarez (2)
23 Dec 13:30 Swansea Swansea 1 – 1 Man Utd Man Utd
Bonus
Williams (3)
Michu
Bonus
Evra (2)
23 Dec 16:00 Chelsea Chelsea 8 – 0 Aston Villa Aston Villa
 
Bonus
Cahill
Ramires (3)
Hazard (2)

GW17 – The Review.. by @shots_on_target

As per usual another great roundup from our Stat-tastic regular @Shots_on_target . Check out his site at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk

 

A

No real surprises here.  Rooney and Van Persie continue to dominate chances for the most attacking team in the league.  Sunderland did very well actually, beating the league average in the shot categories (green arrows).  Sessegnon looks back in the kind of form which saw him attract such attention last season.
B

Stoke are a tricky team to play against and took a large hammer to Everton’s recent form, limiting them to just one shot on target from Jelavic (not including Shawcross’s own goal). Everton did manage to get shots off in the box but this often suits Stoke’s physical defence.

C
Newcastle have really picked up through the season in an attacking sense, and have started generating lots of chances.  This of course is good news for Demba Ba who was doing well before hand anyway and got a goal here this week.  City are moving up the gears too and deserved their win, Aguero and Tevez forming the focal point of the attack with Silva back pulling the strings.

D
Liverpool were tactically outdone here.  Villa defended deep and in numbers and in Benteke and Weimann they have the power, pace and skill to do well on the counter-attack. Suarez continues to be the beating heart of Liverpool’s attack but it’s not an attack which can simply walk over a team like Villa who are playing well for Lambert now.

E
No shots on target for Swansea, and only 3 all day, compared to a quite massive 29 for Spurs.  I’m going to hazard a guess that Villas-Boas’s hugely successful tactical nous from his Porto’s days was not actually a fluke and all those nights playing Football Manager must have rubbed off.  There are a lot of great options in this side – Defoe and Adebayor and of course the returning Gareth Bale.  Vertonghen has been promising a good game (pointswise) for a while now too.

F
Contrary to popular belief QPR’s home form defensively is not too dissimilar to most team’s in the division and Redknapp’s switch to playing Taarabt higher up the pitch has perhaps released the shackles from the Moroccan. He still chose to hit all 7 of his shots from outside the penalty area and perhaps could be tagged as the the poor man’s Luis Suarez in this respect.  If so represents quite a FPL asset as a midfielder.  For Fulham, ‘Shots on Target’ favourite Bulgarian failed again to register a single shot, and despite QPR’s buoyancy under Redknapp this was a pretty woeful display for Martin Jol’s men.

G
Norwich’s fine form continues in a game in which they showed some guile to go with their grit.  Pilkington and Hoolahan, two players frequently flirted with in FPL last season, scored and assisted the goals.  The all round performance of Snodgrass stands out too.  Wigan’s chief hope of something was with Kone this week but nothing to get excited about.
H

Another resilient display can be chalked up on Sam Allardyce’s record as he grabbed a point for his team after a game devoid of a lot of creativity.  Carlton Cole is doing his best to lead the line for the Hammers in support of Nolan and the absence of Andy Carroll.  James Morrison’s return to the lineup for West Brom saw him back amongst the think of the action.

I
Monday night’s final match of the gameweek brought perhaps the most thrill and excitement and Arsenal, led by Santi Cazorla hat-trick put the sword into Reading.  Walcott’s inclusion ahead of Giroud will raise plenty of eyebrows and he had plenty of chances to score, as did Podolski.  Is this a case for Theo’s inclusion in the team as the main striker from now on, does he create space and openings for the other players to flourish that Giroud does not?  Or are Reading just warming up from the Championship?

GW17 NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!! #FPL

Gameweek 17
15 Dec 12:45 Newcastle Newcastle 1 – 3 Man City Man City
15 Dec 15:00 Liverpool Liverpool 1 – 3 Aston Villa Aston Villa
Bonus
Gerrard (2)
Bonus
Weimann
Benteke (3)
15 Dec 15:00 Man Utd Man Utd 3 – 1 Sunderland Sunderland
15 Dec 15:00 Norwich Norwich 2 – 1 Wigan Wigan
15 Dec 15:00 QPR QPR 2 – 1 Fulham Fulham
Bonus
Taarabt (3)
Faurlin (2)
Bonus
Petric
15 Dec 15:00 Stoke City Stoke City 1 – 1 Everton Everton
16 Dec 13:30 Tottenham Tottenham 1 – 0 Swansea Swansea
16 Dec 16:00 West Brom West Brom 0 – 0 West Ham West Ham
Bonus
Myhill (2)
Brunt (2)
Bonus
Cole (3)
17 Dec 20:00 Reading Reading v Arsenal Arsenal

Walcott
Santi Cazorla (3)
Podolski (2)

#FPL GW16: NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS !!

08 Dec 15:00 Arsenal Arsenal 2 – 0 West Brom West Brom
Bonus
Sagna (2)
Gibbs (2)
Arteta (3)
08 Dec 15:00 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0 – 0 Stoke City Stoke City
08 Dec 15:00 Southampton Southampton 1 – 0 Reading Reading
08 Dec 15:00 Sunderland Sunderland 1 – 3 Chelsea Chelsea
Bonus
Johnson
Bonus
Mata (2)
Torres (3)
08 Dec 15:00 Swansea Swansea 3 – 4 Norwich Norwich
08 Dec 15:00 Wigan Wigan 2 – 2 QPR QPR
09 Dec 13:30 Man City Man City 2 – 3 Man Utd Man Utd
09 Dec 15:00 Everton Everton 2 – 1 Tottenham Tottenham
Bonus
Pienaar (3)
Jelavic
Bonus
Dempsey (2)
09 Dec 16:00 West Ham West Ham 2 – 3 Liverpool Liverpool
10 Dec 20:00 Fulham Fulham 2 – 1 Newcastle Newcastle
 

Bonus
Sidwell (3)
Duff (3)
Rodallega
Sunderland Sunderland 3 – 0 Reading Reading
Bonus McClean (3)

Sessegnon
Fletcher (2)

Guest Post: #FPL Reflection by @RotoZdroik from RotoExperts

 This guest post was submitted by Adam @RotoZdroik from US Fantasy Sports site www.RotoExperts.com. RotoExperts feature award-winning experts and analysis across various major sports platforms.

 

Many thanks to Adam for his contribution and if you would like to guest post for Fantasy Yirma – Contact us at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com

 

 

—————————-

Wait, Manchester United lost to who? One of the richest and most popular clubs in the World fell to the hands (or feet) of Norwich on Saturday.

That’s right, a team scoring almost three goals per game lost to a team that was scoring less than one goal per game with a goal differential of negative 10. About zero people predicted the Canaries to come away with a win. Don’t forget, they also beat Arsenal and Tottenham (Capital One cup) in the past month, as well.

What does this mean for your Fantasy squad? Norwich is by far the best-valued squad when looking at defenses. John Ruddy only costs 4.6m (at the official game at premierleague.com) and has four clean sheets in his last five matches. He has more points than any other keeper does in the Premier League. Joe Hart has 14 less points yet currently costs 2.3m more. That’s the difference between having Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney on your team.

As for the Canary defenders, none of them cost more than 4.5m. Javier Garrido had the assist against Man United and now has bonus points in two straight games. He has five more Fantasy points than Patrice Evra, costs a lot less and is owned by about five percent less of contestants. Sebastien Bassong and Michael Turner also deserve a mention on the back line, as they have been key in Norwich’s current run.

In the other matches, red cards took the headline. Emmanuel Adebayor scored and then was sent off shortly after against his former club. Arsenal went on to score five goals after Adebayor was given the boot. The same story can be said about Brede Hangeland for Fulham. He got a red and offensively challenged Sunderland proceeded to put three in the back of the net. Marouane Fellaini picked up only a yellow card in their road loss at Reading, but that still lead to a two-game suspension for him since it was his fifth of the campaign.

Liverpool and Manchester City were favorites of most Fantasy owners as they combined for an 8-0 score line. In form striker, Luis Suarez, scored twice while defender Jose Enrique scored, assisted and got full bonus points. He was my No. 1 defender in last week’s rankings.

As for City, it took some time but they got back to scoring big against Aston Villa. Carlos Tevez had two goals and two assists while David Silva once again showed life with a goal and two assists. Sergio Aguero made an appearance as well, scoring twice.

Swansea continues to defy odds with their always-productive midfield. Pablo Hernandez, Johnathan de Guzman and Michu all found the score sheet in a road win. QPR lost yet another disappointing game, but this one came at home against the club that is directly above them in the table. Never a good thing.

In somewhat of an upset, West Brom took out Chelsea on the legs of their usually consistent forwards. Peter Odemwingie and Shane Long both grabbed goals while Chelsea looked largely unimpressive for most of the game. West Brom continues to impress every week.

WEEKLY TIP

Instead of going defensive, it’s time to focus on some attacking options.

Man United vs. QPR

United is not happy coming off a loss and QPR gets them at the most unfortunate time.
Everyone knows about Robin van Persie so he shouldn’t come as a surprise. Rooney will be back from illness and couldn’t pick a better time to break his scoring streak. Each of them was rested for their midweek Champions League match. My top defender choice, Patrice Evra, will also have full strength for this one.

The hardest part to decide on United is their midfield. Shinji Kagawa is out for another month which means both Ashley Young and Antonio Valencia will continue to get starts. Each of them presents a risk, especially for their price, but each has plenty of upside in this match.

Stoke City vs. Fulham

This may be a surprise choice, but hear me out. No one else will be looking at Stoke City players for good reason; they only have 10 goals through 12 matches. However, on the other end of this, Hangeland will not start for the first time all campaign for Fulham. Not to mention, Fulham has allowed eight goals in their last three road matches and 11 goals in their last four matches overall.

Peter Crouch is basically their only true forward that needs to be looked at. He hasn’t scored in six straight gameweeks, but that is about to change. Charlie Adam is easily their most popular midfielder and he should grab at least an assist in this one. Jonathan Walters is another option to check out, but make sure he’s playing first as he’s dealing with a knee injury. Defensively, Ryan Shawcross and Robert Huth are always good options. Geoff Cameron deserves a look as well since he’s the cheapest of the bunch.

WEEKLY RANKINGS

Goalkeepers

  1. Anders Lindegaard, Manchester United, 5.4m, vs. QPR
  2. Tim Howard, Everton, 5.6m, vs. Norwich
  3. Ali Al-Habsi, Wigan, 5.0m, vs. Reading
  4. Asmir Begovic, Stoke City, 5.1m, vs. Fulham
  5. Boaz Myhill, West Brom, 4.4m, at Sunderland


Defenders

  1. Patrice Evra, Man United, 6.8m, vs. QPR
  2. Rafael, Man United, 6.4m, vs. QPR
  3. Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.6m, vs. Norwich
  4. Jose Enrique, Liverpool, 5.7m, at Swansea
  5. Ryan Shawcross, Stoke City, 5.2m, vs. Fulham
  6. John Arne Riise, Fulham, 5.7m, at Stoke City
  7. Liam Ridgewell, West Brom, 5.0m, at Sunderland
  8. Ivan Ramis, Wigan, 4.5m, vs. Reading
  9. William Gallas, Tottenham, 5.0m, vs. West Ham
  10. Kaspars Gorkss, Reading, 4.0m, at Wigan


Midfielders

  1. Santi Cazorla, Arsenal, 9.4m, at Aston Villa
  2. Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.7m, vs. West Ham
  3. Juan Mata, Chelsea, 9.6m, vs. Man City
  4. David Silva, Man City, 9.3m, at Chelsea
  5. Eden Hazard, Chelsea, 10.1m, vs. Man City
  6. Hatem Ben Arfa, Newcastle, 7.8m, at Southampton
  7. Antonio Valencia, Man United, 8.6m, vs. QPR
  8. Pablo Hernandez, Swansea, 6.1m, vs. Liverpool
  9. Kevin Nolan, West Ham, 6.9m, at Tottenham
  10. Charlie Adam, Stoke City, 6.6m, vs. Fulham


Forwards

  1. Robin van Persie, Man United, 13.7m, vs. QPR
  2. Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.2m, at Swansea
  3. Demba Ba, Newcastle, 8.3m, at Southampton
  4. Olivier Giroud, Arsenal, 8.4m, at Aston Villa
  5. Carlos Tevez, Man City, 9.4m, at Chelsea
  6. Sergio Aguero, Man City, 11.0m, at Chelsea
  7. Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.2m, at Aston Villa
  8. Wayne Rooney, Manchester United, 11.8m, vs. QPR
  9. Rickie Lambert, Southampton, 6.0m, vs. Newcastle
  10. Peter Crouch, Stoke City, 6.8m, vs. Fulham

YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN

 

  1. Robin van Persie, Man United
  2. Luis Suarez, Liverpool
  3. Olivier Giroud, Fulham
  4. Carlos Tevez, Man City
  5. Demba Ba, Newcastle

 

The Red Devils were just shutout on the road. They aren’t very happy and go against the last-place club in the league. United averages three goals per game at Old Trafford and RVP will be around all of them.

There may not be anyone else more in form at the moment than Suarez. He has scored in four straight matches. While he’s on the road, Swansea’s defense isn’t impossible to get by.

All of a sudden, Arsenal’s attacking prowess was back against Tottenham. Ten guys or not, they still scored five goals. Giroud is the man of the moment with three goals in his last two matches.

While he probably won’t have another two-goal, two-assist performance at Chelsea, Tevez is still the likeliest of candidates to score in this match. Chelsea hasn’t had a clean sheet in seven straight games.

Newcastle isn’t playing great, but that doesn’t matter to Ba. He will find the back of the net no matter the situation and this situation is friendly for him even on the road.

*Stats up-to-date as of Nov. 19

 

 

About the author: Adam Zdroik, Staff Writer View all posts by
Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world.

GW12 – NOTHING BUT THE BONUS POINTS #FPL

Nothing but the bonus points from the #FPL game from http://www.premierleague.com

17 Nov 12:45 Arsenal Arsenal 5 – 2 Tottenham Tottenham
17 Nov 15:00 Liverpool Liverpool 3 – 0 Wigan Wigan
17 Nov 15:00 Man City Man City 5 – 0 Aston Villa Aston Villa
17 Nov 15:00 Newcastle Newcastle 1 – 2 Swansea Swansea
17 Nov 15:00 QPR QPR 1 – 3 Southampton Southampton
Bonus
Hoilett
Bonus
Puncheon (2)
Lambert (3)
17 Nov 15:00 Reading Reading 2 – 1 Everton Everton
Bonus
Shorey
Le Fondre (3)
Bonus
Naismith (2)
17 Nov 15:00 West Brom West Brom 2 – 1 Chelsea Chelsea
17 Nov 17:30 Norwich Norwich 1 – 0 Man Utd Man Utd
18 Nov 16:00 Fulham Fulham 1 – 3 Sunderland Sunderland
19 Nov 20:00 West Ham West Ham 1 – 1 Stoke City Stoke City
Bonus
O’Brien (3)
Bonus
Huth
Walters (2)

GW11 THE REVIEW!! by @shots_on_target

Many Thanks to @shots_on_target for this weeks GW round up. For more great articles from our very own “Statto”  check out his website at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk !!

Special mention this week to new guest poster Super Grover  who has provided Match reports to supplement the tables

Very accurate and clinical shooting by both teams. The game wasn’t quite as open as the score dictates as 15 shots in the box is pretty standard. Just one of those games where everything goes in, except Arteta’s penalty that is!

As for individuals, Giroud is the obvious star here. Superb game all around. Berbatov continues to be superb and appears almost fixture proof at this point. Ruiz would be interesting if listed as a MID.

Cazorla’s numbers weren’t bad, but at his price range he needs to produce more in this kind of fixture. Suspect a number of owners will be rethinking their elite MID options with Mata on fire and Silva back from the injury list.

Sunderland managed to find the back of the net again although Everton were clearly the better side in this one. Everton continue to press forward and are susceptible to counters. All the Blues offensive players were involved (Fellaini, Pienaar, Baines, Jelavic, Mirallas) and any of them could have brought home the points. This team remains a gold mine for attacking fantasy purposes.

Wouldn’t look too much at Heitenga’s shot opportunities. Yes he kicked/headed the ball towards the goal, but if Saturday is any indication he’s going to struggle to ever put one on the goal. With any skill he could have easily netted a brace.

While Sessegnon was a handful and showed some of the form he demonstrated last season they still managed just 3 shots on goal. It is still difficult to consider this team from an offensive perspective other than perhaps Fletcher.

My model predicted about 1.5 goals for Man U this weekend. They scored 3 from onlu 5 shots on target. They continue to confound any statistical forecaster with their absurd conversion rate (now at 46% for the year). Van Persie was the most provocative player, but had 4 shots to Rooney’s 4 in 17 fewer minutes and Hernandez’ 3 in 47 fewer minutes. RVP remains a fantasy monster but at soon to be 13.7 million you certainly are paying for it.

Villa didn’t do a whole lot but everything they did was funneled through Benteke and Weimann. While Benteke is a legit fantasy option, Weimann seems like a non-entity to me. This was his first game of any real contribution and Bent remains an ever present option on the bench. I personally see no value in Villa’s offense.

Even game in which Stoke were probably somewhat fortunate to get a clean sheet. Crouch and Walters were involved, but neither are elite options as Stoke isn’t going to put up many crooked numbers this year. For QPR, Taarabt was a menace to both sides as usual, being more than a bit free with his shots. Granero was also heavily involved and Hoillet was solid as well. This is the third game in a row the trio has started together. Any of the three are legit fantasy options if QPR can click into some sort of form. All are on my radar.

Terrible game to watch. From Adebayor’s diving to Mancini’s sideline histrionics. City dominated the game throughout and probably should have scored 3. Aguero and Silva were excellent as expected while I thought Tevez was a bit subdued. Dzeko really was only involved in his goal and a corner, but his presence remains troublesome to Tevez owners. Interestingly Balotelli and Nasri weren’t even included on the bench.

To me, Aguero and Silva are the key options here, with Tevez there if you want to try and read Mancini’s mind. The defense remains stout as Totenham barely threatened and the goal was very soft. Probably should have been a clean sheet for City.

For the Spurs, there wasn’t much to talk about. Adebayor was a flopping menace but didn’t really threaten much. Bale was starved of many real opportunities for him. One thing to note is that Huddlestone took nearly every free kick and 1 of the 2 corners. If that continues that is a bit of a knock on Bale’s value. It did not occur last game though so I wouldn’t look too much into it. Besides Bale, the rest of the Spurs look like non-options right now.

Don’t look now, but Southampton’s defense is improving. It’s still not good mind you, but improvement is improvement. Swansea really didn’t generate much offense and widely-held Michu and Routledge were invisible. For Routledge, this is the 3rd straight fixture that he has been a non-factor. De Guzman was better this week and has been better recently, but probably not strong enough to warrant investment.

For Southampton, Lambert remains a well-rounded asset, especially at home. He now has 21 chances created on the season, third behind Suarez and RVP among all forwards. If he plays he is almost certainly worth the money at 6.1. Ramirez continues to rack up solid numbers in his playing time. He is now averaging 3 shots and 2.2 chances created per 90 minutes, solid numbers for a 6.0 million MID. Lallana remains a solid 6.0 option as well.

Even game. Both teams were somewhat threatening but only generated 4 chances on target. For WBA, Morrison remains the key figure although Lukaku remains a constant goal threat when he is given time on the pitch. Brunt started instead of Gera this week so that probably removes Gera as a budget option. On the other side it was more of a mixed bag. Kone scored but had only 2 shots all day and no key passes. Di Santo didn’t do much either. Watson did manage 3 shots for the second week in a row. Could he become an option with regular playing time?

Shots on target was right, Reading’s defense was the way to go this week! A pretty non-eventful game, with both teams struggling to generate anything with only 13 total chances created. Hoolahan, Snoddgrass and Holt remain interesting options on Norwich presuming rotations issues can be weeded out. For Reading, only Shorey did anything useful by racking up 3 key passes from his very advanced left-back position. Not sure he is worth investment though as they won’t be playing Norwich’s offense at home every week.

Newcastle probably deserved at least a draw here. West Ham continued their run of allowing a ton of shots and not a ton of goals. Currently, the opposition is converting just 17.7% of their shots on target against the Hammers. Don’t expect that to continue. On offense, WHM has been very aggressive getting shots close in and the pattern continued this week. Nolan remains the primary contributor here although Noble is very cheap and remains on all kicks (including penalties).

On the other side it was pretty much status quo. Cabaye outperformed HBA, but Ben Arfa did enough to keep him as a viable, albeit pricey, midfield option. Ba was Ba, with the only difference being that he didn’t score on one of his 2 shots on target. Cisse remains a non option at this time.

Entertaining game to watch. Liverpool came out in a 3-5-2 formation with Enrique and Johnson as wing backs. Seemed to confuse the Reds more than Chelsea and the home team really dominated the first half. The second half saw a switch to a more traditional back four with Enrique playing left-mid and Gerrard dropping deeper to orchestrate the offense instead of Joe Allen (who was putrid in the opening 45). Liverpool were the better team in the second half and deserved the single point.

On Liverpool, Suarez continued his excellent recent form and seemed more restrained than usual (a 5th yellow on his mind perhaps). His shot and key pass numbers were down a bit but that was more of a reflection of the dominance by Chelsea in the first half. Sterling again created a couple opportunities with his pace. I purchased Sterling at 4.7 and am thrilled with his production. At his current price, I am not sure I wouldn’t be happier trying my luck with Taarabt. On the backline, both Johnson and Enrique were involved offensively, although Enrique’s clumsiness was apparent to my eye. Gerrard was a non-factor as he spent most of the second half directing things as a holding mid. He also gave up corner duties to Suso.

For Chelsea, Mata, Hazard and Torres were all heavily involved. Oscar was excellent but he remains a bit deeper than the other two #10s and thus doesn’t have the same fantasy potential in my opinion. Torres was Torres, getting a hold of a good number of solid chances but failing to put any in the back of the net. Hazard and Mata both remain solid fantasy assets.

 

 

Big thanks again to @shots_on_target for the Stats and new guest poster SuperGrover for his match reports!! Visit http://www.shotsontarget.com for more great articles!!

GW11 NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!! #FPL

Gameweek 11
10 Nov 15:00 Arsenal Arsenal 3 – 3 Fulham Fulham
Bonus
Giroud (2)
Bonus
Kacaniklic (2)
Berbatov (3)
10 Nov 15:00 Everton Everton 2 – 1 Sunderland Sunderland
10 Nov 15:00 Reading Reading 0 – 0 Norwich Norwich
Bonus
Morrison
McCleary (2)
Bonus
Garrido (3)
10 Nov 15:00 Southampton Southampton 1 – 1 Swansea Swansea
Bonus
Schneiderlin (2)
Bonus
Monk (2)
Dyer (3)
10 Nov 15:00 Stoke City Stoke City 1 – 0 QPR QPR
Bonus
Shawcross (3)
Adam (2)
Bonus
Ferdinand
10 Nov 15:00 Wigan Wigan 1 – 2 West Brom West Brom
10 Nov 17:30 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2 – 3 Man Utd Man Utd
Bonus
Weimann (2)
Bonus
Carrick
Hernandez (3)
11 Nov 13:30 Man City Man City 2 – 1 Tottenham Tottenham
Bonus
Silva (2)
Aguero (3)
Bonus
Caulker
11 Nov 15:00 Newcastle Newcastle 0 – 1 West Ham West Ham
11 Nov 16:00 Chelsea Chelsea 1 – 1 Liverpool Liverpool
Bonus
Terry (2)
Bonus
Jose Enrique
Suarez (3)