We are always happy to accept guest posts on FY. Delighted to see that #FPL superfan Walt aka @EPLFanForLife has submitted this article on his transfer journey through the 2012-13 Fantasy campaign.

Check out @EPLFanForLife on twitter. Always open to chat and discuss all things FPL.

If you would like to submit a guest post please contact Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com

2012-13 Fantasy Premier League Transfer Analysis

I’ve gotta level with you guys.  I just can’t get the recent FPL season out of my mind.  It was a year of growth for me; a year where finding an outlet to talk about the sport (EPL) and the game (FPL) on Twitter raised my appreciation and enjoyment of the FPL game to levels I had never anticipated.

I’ve learned so much just from reading what knowledgeable fans have said to one another and asked one another about, let alone the actual conversations I’ve had with people that have helped me understand and enjoy the game with a new awareness.  

I’ve said before that the season ended too early for me.  I didn’t want the momentum to stop.  Having improved from 352,257th place in 2011-2012 to 33,058th place in 2012-2013, part of me was afraid that the momentum I carried through the end of the season and all that I learned this year would fade with the two-month gap; that I might forget what I had learned and would essentially be starting the new upcoming season from scratch again.

So without being able to keep playing the FPL game, I wanted to do the next best thing.  I wanted to analyze my performance and delve further into how the knowledge I gained from talking and “listening to” so many respectable friends and fans helped me reach levels that surprised me.  The logical place for me to start was to analyze my transfer activity; specifically the transfers I made throughout the season that resulted in point hits.

If you’ve played FPL for any length of time and are active on Twitter, you’ve inevitably fretted over the prospect of “paying” or “spending” 4 extra points to make a transfer that you can’t make for free.  The concept is an integral part of the game, and one that often can make or break an individual gameweek and ultimately how you perform in your mini-league and overall ranking.

Respected FPL players talk about “the 4-point hit” just about every week.  Is it worth it?  What has to happen to make it pay off?  For which positions is it worth considering and for which positions is it a guaranteed no-no?  What are the odds that it will pay off?

I read and listened to many people.  One of the things I remember hearing most from people that I respected highly was “Don’t take a hit if you don’t have to; they don’t pay off 80% of the time.”  That scared me and had me thinking carefully about all of the things that would need to happen for a 4-point hit to pay off.  Not only would the person I transferred in need to do well, but they would need to score at least 4 more points than the person I transferred out.  In FPL, where every point is valuable, a 4-point hit needed to be weighed carefully.

Partly because of the fear instilled in me with the prospect of a 4-point hit, and partly because I was in a position in my mini-league towards the end of the season where every point would end up being important, I always found myself thinking long and hard about the prospect of giving up 4 points to make a transfer that I thought would pay off.

With three weeks left in the season, and hearing the old mantra of “4-point hits don’t pay off 80% of the time” from respected FPL players in the back of my mind, my mini-league rival made the surprising decision of making 5 transfers during double game week 36; a 16 point hit!  I was freaking out.  I had taken point hits in the 2-3 weeks leading up to double gameweek 36 to prepare and set myself up for it, but was surprised that my rival took such a risk; especially when things were so tight in our mini-league.  

One of my good friends in the FPL Twitter community, knowing my mini-league was tight and probably trying to make me feel better, said “Don’t worry dude, there’s no way they’ll all pay off for him”.  Well guess what; 4 of his 5 transfers DID pay off for him, and it left me questioning the “4-point hits don’t pay off 80% of the time” adage that had been ingrained in my head.

So, after the season ended, I thought I’d take a look and see just how I fared when making the decision to take transfer hits.  The results actually surprised me very much.

Note: Because almost all of the transfers I made that resulted in 4-point hits were transfers that required swapping more than 1 player, I’ve analyzed my transfer hits based on each gameweek as opposed to each transfer.  It was very rare that I took a 4-point hit specifically to swap one player for another; it more often required a double move to “downgrade” a player in one position to be able to “upgrade” a player in another.

Here are my 2012-2013 season statistics/details with regard to point hits and transfers:

Well there you have it.  All told, I spent 92 points on 23 transfers during the 2012-2013 FPL season.  Of the 14 gameweeks in which I took hits, I achieved net gains on 11 of them (78.5%) and had net losses on 3 of them (21.5%).

In summary, I gave up 91 points scored by the players I transferred out, spent 92 points to transfer in other players, and those players that I transferred in earned 276 points in the week I brought them in; for a net overall season gain of 93 points.

Here is something that I found fascinating… check this out:

• The points scored by the players I transferred out  = 91

• The number of points I spent on the 23 extra transfers = 92

• The NET OVERALL GAIN I made through these transfers during the season = 93

Pretty crazy, huh!?!

I am so glad I took the time to put this information together and look back on my transfer dealings throughout the course of the season.  It taught me that depending on the situation, taking hits on additional transfers can work out rather well if done carefully.  

As a fairly conservative FPL player, after the initial and necessary early season adjustments accounting for players who no longer started, fell out of form, were injured, etc., the majority of my point hits were taken to offload players who were either suspended, injured, had blank game weeks, etc.; or to bring in players with upcoming double game weeks.  

In hindsight, this is perfectly normal and to be expected.  What I was surprised about was the percentage of times that point hits actually worked out for me.  Had you asked me that question throughout the season I would have said that it seemed like point hits worked out for me roughly half of the time.  

My decisions look better in hindsight than they felt at the time, although obviously what’s not accounted for here are the players I DIDN’T pick who went nuts on certain gameweeks, like giving up Benteke to see him nail a hat trick a few weeks later.  But that’s FPL for ya.

If you would like to put together analysis like this for yourself based on last season’s statistics, PLEASE PRINT OUT YOUR GAMEWEEK DETAIL TODAY!  Next year’s EPL fixtures have already been released so it will only be a matter of time before the site is reset.  They do not store gameweek detail from prior seasons so once they reset the site it’s gone for good.

Sorry for being so long winded, but I hope you enjoyed seeing the stats of my transfers and how those transfer dealings affected the overall season points as a whole.  I improved my overall ranking considerably this year compared to last, and looking back now, these 93 extra points played a very large factor in that.

Cheers guys!

Walt

Please follow me on Twitter:  @EPLFanForLife

About Walt

An American who would not be able to enjoy the EPL and FPL scene without the connection afforded by Twitter and great accounts like @FantasyYIRMA.  I’ve learned a lot through the FPL connection and the discussions that continue 24/7 throughout the season and look forward to continuing to learn as I’m getting ready for my third season in FPL.

I am an avid football (soccer) fan who enjoys talking football and connecting with others for discussion, banter, news, and anything that increases our enjoyment and appreciation for the sport that we love.

I’ve just started a blog that I welcome you to check out if you get a chance: http://whatiwantmykidstoknowaboutfootball.blogspot.com/

Please also follow me on Twitter: @EPLFanForLife 

With the football season over, the FY team has resigned themselves to building a scoring model for Fantasy Lawn Bowls – the up side to this is that the Premier League starts back in 78 days.

We have run multiple competitions this season and gave away some great prizes already. The inaugural FantasyYIRMA.com Cup was a great success and many thanks to those who got involved

256 players signed up to take part in  a Knock Out style tournament. The tournament itself filled up within a matter of hours and if you missed out on playing this time there will be more opportunities next season.

Special thanks go to Cup sponsors @StanJames and @AdvertisingWeek

Incredible support from both this season

Huge Congratulations to Glenn Quilter who wins the first place prize of £100 in Free Bets from @StanJames in addition to £25 from @AdvertisingWeek

An excellent cup run from @evertoniandy sees him pick up £50 in Free Bets from Big Stan and the bonus prize of £50 in free bets goes to @Strooger with his excellent individual gameweek score of 109 enough to beat off the rest of the competition.

Unbelievably – We have yet to hear from Glenn Quilter to claim his prize!!! Get in touch Glenn!

Roll on next season….

*R

For the last time this season… here are the bonus point allocations!!

Torres scored in a fitting tribute for Rafa in his last game in charge yet it was the Spanish marvel Mata who take home the 3pt maximum.

Liverpool’s Coutinho continues to look a real #FPL prospect for next season with a goal and 2 Bonus points with Enrique picking up the top marks.

Grant Holt signed off for Norwich with a goal however it was Rodwell with a well taken brace who nabs the top bonus marks.

Koscielny‘s goal was enough to guarantee Arsenal the chance to compete in the Champions league next season, it gained him 3 Bonus points also!

Crouch took the maximum for Stoke in their 1-1 draw at Southampton while Kacaniklic gained top marks for Fulham as they romped to a 3-0 away win over Swansea who looked as though they were already on a week all inclusive holiday in Benidorm.

An Finally in a quite unbelievable game, West Brom came from 5-2 down against Manchester United to finish 5-5 with a Lukaku Hat-trick in the mix also!!

Gareth Bale played, Gareth Bale scored, Gareth Bale got the maximum bonus points…. #Ronseal

Kevin Nolan managed a superb Hat-trick for West Ham and rightly takes the bonus also.

Forgotten man Bent managed a goal and 2 bonus points with Vlaar gaining the maximum in Villa’s 2-2 draw at Wigan.

Let us know what you think of the Bonus points… Right?? Wrong??

Ryan

19 May 16:00	Chelsea		2 – 1		Everton
Bonus Cech Mata (3) Torres (2)
19 May 16:00	Liverpool		1 – 0		QPR
Bonus Skrtel Jose Enrique (3) Coutinho (2)
19 May 16:00	Man City		2 – 3		Norwich
Bonus Rodwell (3) Bonus Howson Holt (2)
19 May 16:00	Newcastle		0 – 1		Arsenal
Bonus Koscielny (3) Sagna (2) Mertesacker (2)
19 May 16:00	Southampton		1 – 1		Stoke City
Bonus Davis (2) Lambert Bonus Crouch (3)
19 May 16:00	Swansea		0 – 3		Fulham
Bonus Schwarzer Kacaniklic (3) Berbatov (2)
19 May 16:00	Tottenham		1 – 0		Sunderland
Bonus Walker (2) Vertonghen (2) Bale (3)
19 May 16:00	West Brom		5 – 5		Man Utd
Bonus Morrison Mulumbu (2) Lukaku (3)
19 May 16:00	West Ham		4 – 2		Reading
Bonus Noble (2) Nolan (3) Diame
19 May 16:00	Wigan		2 – 2		Aston Villa
Bonus Espinoza Bonus Vlaar (3) Bent (2)