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Guest Post: Finding End of Season Value and Differentials
Many thanks to Jonathan from @SportinglyBet for supplying this guest post.
Finding End of Season Value and Differentials
With just nine games remaining, fantasy managers up and down the country will be looking to put their below par points return from Gameweek 29 to bed and make a final end of season push.
On paper Arsenal have the best run of fixtures including a double gameweek against Norwich and Everton in Gameweek 33.
Midfielders Theo Walcott and Santi Cazorla can both be expected to be drafted in by an influx of managers, especially before Gameweek 33, but it is England international Walcott (£9.0m) who offers the best value given his more advanced role for Arsenal this season.
Centre half Per Mertesacker remains the cheapest way to get into Arsenal’s backline, with the Gunners keeping clean sheets in three of their last four games in the Premier League.
By Ronnie Macdonald from Chelmsford, United Kingdom
Oliver Giroud (£7.6m) is a somewhat divisive mid-price option in attack, but after scoring nine goals in his debut season the France international could still flip opinion between now and the end of the season. Selected by just 2.6% of fantasy managers, the France international could prove a significant differential given Arsenal’s remaining fixtures in the Premier League.
Brendan Rodgers’ LIVERPOOL side also end the season well with a favourable run of fixtures, fuelling hope that the Merseyside club could make the Champions League.
Uruguay striker Luis Suarez has again been the Reds leading light this season, with over 40% of fantasy managers currently boasting the Premier League top scorer in their ranks.
Fabio Borini’s injury and Raheem Sterling’s fatigue could see January signing Daniel Sturridge (£7.5m) feature more heavily for Liverpool this season. Sturridge has scored five goals in the league since making the move from Chelsea and the English striker has often been played in the more advanced role alongside Suarez.
Phillipe Coutinho has also impressed since his January move, but the Brazilian midfielder will be subject to a gradual introduction of Premier League football by Brendan Rodgers. Stewart Downing offers a more in-form selection, with two goals, one assist and three bonus points in the last three gameweeks and despite a budget price of £5.7m, only 1.3% of managers have the England international in their squad.
![By Dean Jones (Flickr: Coutinho Goal) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons](https://fantasyyirma.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/coutinho_v_swansea.jpg?w=604)
By Dean Jones (Flickr: Coutinho Goal) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons
Three goals in four starts has been the return of the former Marseille striker and a price tag of just £5.9m will see Remy quickly become the third choice striker for many fantasy sides.
Harry Redknapp’s team remains full of fantasy worth, epitomised none more so than on loan midfielder Andros Townsend at £4.4m who produced a man of the match performance with a goal, two assists and three bonus points against Sunderland last time out.
Christopher Samba is another to add to the watchlist, after scoring over 100 points in three successive seasons for Blackburn during 2008-2011. Samba is still short of the pace of the Premier League, but the Congo international has always carried a substantial threat from corners and set-pieces..
Elsewhere suitors of NORWICH could come back into fashion, with Javier Garrido, Russell Martin and Sebastian Bassong high on the agenda given the Canaries run of nine clean sheets already this season.
NEWCASTLE’s Moussa Sissoko and Yohan Cabaye look encouraging in the centre of the Magpies midfield, with fixtures against Wigan, Fulham Sunderland and West Brom on the horizon.
Over the next few gameweeks managers will be eagerly reshaping their squads and the quest to find differentials with favourable fixture runs look never-ending, as we approach the final part of the season.
By Jonathan Day
About the Author:
Fantasy Premier League: GW27 Review
#FPL GW27 Review
Many thanks as always to @shots_on_target for his weekly wrap up of the Premier League games.
Check out his website at www.shotsontarget.com for some great #FPL insight!
What a performance by Gareth Bale in a very buoyant encounter at Upton Park. There’s not more much to say about Bale so I’ll move right on and mention Andy Carroll and Joe Cole. Nolan’s injury could prove a blow for the Hammers if it’s serious but this may afford Cole a more prominent role. He’s not £0.0m by the way, he’s £5.6m.
These two teams have both been great sources of fantasy players this season, and should continue to be so. With Ba gone, Sissoko and Cisse are providing the goals and Gouffran is one to watch too. Cabaye, on pens and free-kicks, will pick up points although Sissoko’s (rapidly rising) price tag and advanced role behind the striker make him this team’s highlight. In a FPL season dominated by midfielders Ritchie Lambert is this season’s third highest scoring forward, behind only RVP and Suarez. Not bad. Puncheon’s 2nd benching in the last 4 games throws a spanner in the works for a fair few managers; both were away games though so perhaps a tactical move and ,if so, maybe not too worrying ahead of 4 home games in the next 6 for. Maybe.
Berbatov was a dim glimmer of light in this match, Fulham unable to really threaten much against a Stoke side willing to let them try. Riise and Riether took advantage of the space to push up down the flanks and get involved in the attack, the latter getting the assist. Let’s move on.
A tight game without any real top draw attacking play to shout about – perhaps the highlight was Moyes’ fury at the final whistle. Norwich have been a legitimate threat from set-pieces all season which makes Snodgrass a very sound option for your FPL team, with Bassong and Holt the two players who tend to get on the end of things. Everton really didn’t get much going, too often failing to find players in the box. They need a good win against Oldham in the Cup and then Reading to keep up momentum into the run-in.
Top notch performance from Wigan, excelling not only in attack but defensively too, with the return of Boyce from injury and late introduction of season-long absentee Alcarez. Kone scored his 8th goal of the season in which he has missed about a fifth of. I would not be surprised to see him score another 5 or 6 before the end of the season with some nice fixtures over the horizon.
The early withdrawal of Van Persie will be a keen talking point for fantasy managers through this week ahead of a plum home game against Norwich which comes a few days before the Real Madrid game. In RVP’s absence it could well be Nani who fills the gap. Recently urged in the press by Sir Alex to show consistency this might be just the type of “media-message” Nani needs to prove his worth at a top club. QPR hardly troubled United at all but they will be pleased to get Remy back in action.
All hail Lukaku, right? Although Sunderland have earnt a tag as a defensive team over the last few seasons they don’t travel well at all so it’s no surprise that West Brom created plenty of chances, and even less of a surprise that these chances mostly fell and were put away by Lukaku, who just seems to be getting better through the season. Sessegnon had one of his best games yet this campaign and Sunderland’s attacking form has been gradually improving.
If United weren’t so far ahead in the league this dominant performance could have been regarded as City reaffirming their title challenge. Mancini has had a strange strategy this season of starting matches with a block of 5 in a deep midfield line, with the 2 fullbacks lining up with 3 center mids, this week in Milner, Rodwell and Garcia. Only when Tevez emerged did City have enough creative force to break Chelsea down, Silva and Toure showing their class. Check out Talk of the Crowd’s awesome tactical analysis of how the introduction of Tevez changed the game.
A lot was expected of Arsenal ahead of this one after their now almost customary March cup exits. Though they got the win and had a host of chances they left it late. Santi Cazorla has gone slightly under the radar but has now scored 11 goals this season, the same as Walcott although in significantly more minutes. Walcott and Giroud had their fair share of chances too. Villa, unsurprisingly, did not create much although N’Zogbia is ever so slightly blinking on the fantasy radar.
Fantasy Premier League: GW26 Review
Gameweek 26 still has one fixture remaining with Liverpool playing Swansea this weekend, but here is the round up of the 10 other games so far. Many thanks as always to @shots_on_target for his review, check out his site at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic #FPL resource!
A much needed win for Aston Villa although overall they performed below average for a home
team up against a travelling West Ham, Villa’s red arrows indicating below average totals in
all shot categories. Their limited attack is all through Benteke though, which makes him
always in with a chance of a goal. The Nolan-Carroll partnership combined well again
producing plenty of chances in the box but none of real gilt-edge quality.
Torres had a rare performance here where he is the Chelsea player with the most shots on
target, usually he’s second behind one of the midfielders. There were a lot of efforts to
share out here though, and with many at range from Lampard and Luiz. Both players can hit ’em though. Hazard’s goal and assist flatter his underlying numbers.
A rather muted, some might say controlled, performance from United against Everton.
Ferguson did not need to take any risks with this game, especially after City’s loss, and
this kind of performance was always on the cards. United’s attack, and Van Persie in
particular, are just so clinical this season they continue to score goals from
limited chances. Evans, when he gets a start, probably warrants his new found goal scoring tag this season. Rooney’s lack of threat up-front will have those managers who signed him up recently reverting back to worries of a few months back, will he play too deep too often? Everton were well contained here. The talismanic Fellaini was marked out of the game by Jones and Anichebe was no match for Vidic, leaving the best chances falling for Osman from midfield.
If any game was going to be 0-0 this week it was this one. Fulham have just lost it whilst
Norwich have learnt how to defend. New signing Becchio looked to be a useful focus for
Norwich’s attack with Snodgrass maintaining his position as my favourite fantasy option in the
Canary’s attack. I’ll try not to mention Berbatov anymore than is necessary.
The report’s after this game centred on City’s shocker but I’d like to draw some attention to
Southampton’s performances of late since their Argentine coach came on board. This was not a result in which they earned a plucky result against defending champions. They dominated
City at both ends of the pitch, deserving of a dominant victory. Puncheon continues to present an excellent cut-priced option. As for City.., who can tell? Aguero and Silva are not paying
back their price tags yet and rotation risk continues to hang over Dzeko, although he’s
maybe worth that kind of risk with his career goal scoring record.
Stoke managed a lofty number of shots here, hauling themselves all the way up to an average level performance against Reading, thanks in part to Walters bluster up behind Crouch and plenty of set pieces. There was no miracle comeback for Reading this time but Stoke really should’ve kept a clean sheet.
This was a game with a lot more chances than the score line suggests. Despite Giroud being restored to the central strikers berth it’s young Theo once again who posed the most threat in
Sunderland’s penalty box, followed by Cazorla who looks to be finding his spark again. For
Sunderland, Fletcher will feel unfortunate not to have been on the score sheet.
This was another terrific display from Swansea, led up front again by their main man in Michu. The Spaniard’s brace and assist will have overshadowed team-mate Hernandez who was rewarded here after some great performances recently. QPR look doomed already but if they do get anything it’s usually from a Taarabt pass.
What can I say about Gareth Bale that you don’t already know? With Defoe out and Adebayor
rested after his duties with Togo there’s was plenty of room up front for Bale to exploit, although it was Dempsey who started up front. Holtby‘s performance will have caught the eye too, with 4 shots, all in the box, showing a potential knack for getting into scoring positions. Gouffran’s was looking good for the visitors until his injury and that’s blow for Newcastle. Sissoko‘s lack of shots here is a downer on his virtuoso display last week but an away game at White Harte Lane should not dampen expectations too much, unlike Cisse though who has failed to step it up since Ba’s Chelsea exit.
West Brom’s gameplan worked a treat here. They had to ride their luck at times with Foster in fine form, especially saving Gerrard’s penalty. But with 70 minutes of pressure successfully soaked, Clarke threw on Lukaku and his enviable strength and pace was enough to hit Liverpool with the sucker-punch.. With Sturridge out injured Suarez was up front but his shooting was off today, failing to hit the target with any of his 7 shots. Gerrard continued to put in the kind of shift that has seen him amass so many FPL points recently. If he had scored his penalty, which was won by Suarez, this gameweek would have told a whole different story, and it still may with the final fixture, LIV vs SWA, to come this Saturday.
Enrique stole the crown for top points with a goal, assist and clean sheet, plus full bonus points.. Suarez and Sturridge were next best and despite Suarez outscoring Sturridge by 5 pts it was very close between the two of them again. Suarez won a perhaps fortunate penalty for his assist. Sturridge was generously handed his penalty by Gerrard, but could have easily scored one or two more from open play. Couthino’s full debut also showed he’s one to watch.
Liverpool’s victory was emphatic. They had 35 shots in total, the most from any team this season, and this has prompted me to take a look back through this season’s results for other dominant performances from a shot data perspective. As can be seen from the number of goals scored in these games it’s still shots on target that is the important stats. Sure, lots of shots are good, but if they don’t hit the target it doesn’t count for much.
You can read more on the Liverpool v Swansea game at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2013/02/liv-5-0-swa-and-other-emphatic-wins.html
Fantasy Premier League: Bonus Point Review
GW26 Bonus Points
So after all 11 fixtures scheduled for GW26 the completed batch of bonus points have been released.
Bale and Michu will be popular choices for 3 bonus points this week. RVP gets the 3 point award for today’s game against Everton also and this will no doubt be good news to the huge 40% + ownership who own the Dutchman. After consecutive gameweeks without a goal RVP returned to normality this afternoon with a goal and an assist.
Benteke with a goal and 2 BP’s is certainly building on his growing reputation and for Chelsea, Eden Hazard returned from suspension with a Goal, assist and 3 bonus points to round off a great performance.
Davis and Lambert both benefited from Southampton’s fantastic victory against City yesterday also.
As per usual, we would like to hear from you… Who got bonus points that shouldn’t have??
Already there have been grumbles heard about how Ramsey ended up with 3BP’s and Cazorla ?? Do you agree/Disagree.
Drop a comment below and let us know your thoughts.
With Liverpool still to play twice and West Brom and Swansea in action also, GW26 is shaping up to provide some big #FPL scores. How is your team doing so far – tweet us your scores @FantasyYIRMA
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FantasyYIRMA.com established in 2012, is a niche Fantasy Football site focused on providing news, views and insight for the English Premier League. Solid gameweek articles and Club features in addition to a top ranked free to play mini-league makes #FY a must read Fantasy source! Find us on twitter @FantasyYIRMA
Tottenham 2-1 Newcastle
Bonus:
3 BALE
2 DAWSON
1 PARKER
Chelsea 4-1 Wigan
Bonus:
3 Hazard
2 Apilicueta
1 Ramires
Norwich 0-0 Fulham
Bonus
3 Sidwell
2 Hangeland
2 Garrido
2 Turner
Stoke 2-1 Reading
Bonus:
3 Whelan
2 Huth
1 Mariappa
Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal
Bonus:
3 Ramsey
2 Walcott
1 Arteta
Swansea 4-1 QPR
Bonus:
3 Michu
2 Hernandez
1 Rangel
Southampton 3-1 Manchester City
Bonus:
3 Davis
2 Lambert
1 Dzeko
Aston Villa 2-1 West Ham
Bonus:
3 N’Zogbia
2 Benteke
1 Westwood
Manchester United 2-0 Everton
Bonus:
3 Van Persie
2 Cleverley
2 Giggs
Liverpool 0-2 West Brom
Bonus:
3 McAuley
2 Mulumbu
1 Foster
Liverpool 5-0 Swansea
Bonus:
3 Enrique
2 Suarez
1 Sturridge
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Follow @fantasyyirmaGW25: Wayne Rooney keeps Manchester United clear!
The GameWeek 25 Review is brought to you by the team behind www.shotsontarget.co.uk
Check out their site and you can also follow them on twitter @shots_on_target . Consistently strong analytical content, www.shotsontarget.co.uk provides a must read resource for all FPL fans!
Both these teams have a weakness that is all too often exploited. Villa can’t defend set pieces and Everton’s defence is as shaky as the come when they are attacked with verve. Result…? Six goals. With Baines’s deliveries and Fellaini aerial threat and with the pace and power on show from Villa’s front line it’s not too surprising. Doubts over Fellaini’s role should be allayed now with Gibson back giving the Belgian license to menace alongside the hulking frame of Anichebe, in the team on merit ahead of Jelavic.
Rooney and Van Persie played very closely together as a front two in this one. Despite a lack of attacking drive from central midfield pair of Carrick and Cleverley, Rooney was not tempted to drop deeper and try and play from there. Fulham’s put up a good fight although without Berbatov they are lack the kind of class that Rooney showed with his precision finish. Surprising to see so little creativity from United’ wingers though.
Arsenal can be a frustrating side and do blow hot and cold. They did pretty well here when you look at the stats and Stoke as unambitious as ever away at a top club at least returned to something of their old resolute self. Wegner’s tactics here perhaps explain the lack of real cutting edge with Cazorla being dropped to accommodate the more combative Diaby. Walcott won the free-kick for the goal and bagged an assist and new boy Monreal was very impressive on his debut at left back.
Sunday’s 4pm kick-off served up yet another pulsating Premier League encounter, although one that took a while to get going. Manicni’s lineup with three holders in the middle in Barry, Milner and Garcia. This really limits the extent to which Silva and Aguero can create anything, as can be seen in the lacklustre attacking stats of their front three – although the strikers did of course both score. This was much in contrast to Liverpool who were the better team in my opinion, creating far more chances and will rue another missed opportunity. I really don’t think there’s much to separate Sturridge and Suarez in this team from a fantasy perspective.
With Carroll back at the point of their attack West Ham were able to get to something like their early season attacking numbers, and the Nolan-Carroll partnership promises to be very fruitful for both parties. Mark Noble too, beneficiary of an assist here, should see some joy from his set-pieces with Carroll to aim for. I’m not all that sure Swansea are equipped for a visit to Allardyce’s Upton Park, and I imagine too that this is a point Laudrup will concede – you can’t win them all. Pablo Hernandez and Michu had the best chances for the Swans ahead of their DGW 26.
Fantasy Premier League: Nothing but BONUS POINTS!!
#FPL GAMEWEEK25..
Do you agree with the bonus points this week? Who missed out??
who are you looking at and wondering…HOW???
Drop a comment below!
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| 02 Feb 15:00 | Arsenal |  |
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3 – 3 |  |
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3 – 2 |  |
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| 02 Feb 15:00 | Reading |  |
2 – 1 |  |
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| 02 Feb 15:00 | Wigan |  |
2 – 2 |  |
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| 02 Feb 17:30 | Fulham |  |
0 – 1 |  |
Man Utd |
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| 03 Feb 13:30 | West Brom |  |
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| 03 Feb 16:00 | Man City |  |
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Liverpool |
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Still time to join the FantasyYirma mini-league!!
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January Transfer Window: SLAMMED SHUT!!
Many thanks to the team from @FourFourTweet for submitting this great review of the January Transfer Window
Guest Post by @jonnywarburton
Premier League clubs contemplate future as January Transfer Window concludes.
Deadline day has been and gone with plenty of deals that will impact clubs seasons across the Premier League.
The toughest time to chop and change your squad is in January but many Premier League mangers use this window to bring in extra depth to depleted squads and to find that hidden bargain that can change a season’s fortune. Plenty of teams have been busy over the last couple of weeks and here is the summary of the key ins and outs at every Premier League side.
Arsenal
Current League Position 6th
Arsenal failed to bring in more than one senior player despite persistent links with Barcelona striker David Villa. Nacho Monreal was added late on in the window to provide significant quality at the LB position. Arsenal fans have been crying out for several new signings that will help lift the gunners into the champions league places. Arsene Wenger’s reluctance to spend significantly signals a very frustrating end to the January transfer window.
Verdict
They needed a couple of quality players and to ship out the dead wood from years ago, Monreal is a nice pick up and should adapt to the Premier League well.
5/10
Players IN: Nacho Monreal (10m)
Players OUT: Johan Djourou (Loan), Marouane Chamakh (Loan), Chuks Aneke (Loan), Emmanuel Frimpong (Loan)
Aston Villa
Current League Position 19th
Villa failed to strengthen an inexperienced squad with only one senior signing through Ligue 2 forward Sylla. It is tough to see the Villa staying up with such little experience throughout the spine of the squad. Premier League experience was a must as other relegation candidates spend the cash in a bid to stay up
Verdict
Failed to address the need for experienced players which could cost them their place in the Premier League. Defensive and Midfield quality was a must but instead an unproven Frenchman fits the bill.
1/10
Players IN: Yacouba Sylla (2m) Simon Dawkins (Loan)
Players OUT: Stephen Warnock
Chelsea
Current League Position 3rd
The signing of Demba Ba from Newcastle United was the main signing for the European champions who replace outgoing Daniel Sturridge. Ba proved to be a hit on Tyneside and the talented Senegalese international will be looking to compete with out of sorts Fernando Torres for a regular spot in the Chelsea line up.
Verdict
With Benitez only seen as ‘Interim’ manager, there wasn’t much surprise that the blues didn’t bring in more players to complement their squad.
5/10
Players IN: Demba Ba (7m)
Players OUT: Lucas Piazon (Loan), Sam Walker (Loan) Billy Clifford (Loan) Todd Kane (Loan) Daniel Sturridge 12m, Patrick Bamford (Loan)
Everton
Current League Position 5th
The toffees took the approach of if it’s not broke don’t fix it. They managed to keep hold of key players Baines and Fellaini which will be vital in their push for a European campaign next season. There only addition of the window was young Barnsley defender Stones, who they pipped Wigan Athletic for his signature – one for the future.
Verdict
Quiet window for Everton, which will suit David Moyes down to the ground by keeping his core together.
5/10
Players IN: John Stones (£3m)
Players OUT: Ross Barkley (Loan) Anton Forrester, Magaye Gueye (Loan)
Fulham
Current League Position 12th
The oldest average aged squad in the league have added younger talents to their side through Frimpong and Emanuelson both on loan. The former Ajax prodigy adds significant experience alongside the midfield powerhouse that is Frimpong. Emanuelson had a OK time in Milan and will be hoping this loan move reignites his career with Fulham. Manolev will offer international experience and is a solid pick up from Holland.
Verdict
Like there two midfield signings in particular and will help bolster the ageing midfield.
6/10
Players IN: Chris David , Emmanuel Frimpong (Loan) , Urby Emanuelson (Loan) , Stanislav Manolev (Loan) , Eyong Enoh [loan from Ajax]
Players OUT: David Stockdale (Loan) Stephen Kelly (Loan), Richard Peniket [loan to AFC Telford]
Liverpool
Current League Position 7th
Liverpool splashed the cash for another transfer window with a double swoop of Sturridge and Coutinho. Two quality signings with real technical skill that will be on show for years to come at Anfield. The two young players are the only real business the Reds side have completed despite reported links that Tom Ince was due a return to the club.
Verdict
Spent a lot of money again so it will be interesting to see if it is money well spent, face value looks good.
7/10
Players IN: Daniel Sturridge (£12m), Philippe Coutinho (£8m)
Players OUT: Danny Wilson (Loan), Nuri Sahin , Joe Cole , Adam Morgan (Loan) , Alexander Doni, Michael Ngoo (Loan)
Manchester City
Current League Position 2nd
With no real additions to the Man City squad it is difficult to see City really giving Man Utd something to think about in the final few months of the season. The sale of Mario Balotelli to AC Milan has been met with split views as the hot headed Italian has undeniable talent but an attitude that offers anything from bizarre to crazy just wouldn’t cut it any longer.
Verdict
Relatively quiet month for the club, splashing the cash on a new striker should have been the main focus for the champions to provide significant competition for Tevez, Aguero and Dzeko.
4/10
Players IN: Godsway Donyoh
Players OUT: Mario Balotelli (19m) Alex Nimely (Loan) Godsway Donyoh (Loan) Jeremy Helan (Loan) Reece Wabara (Loan)
Manchester United
Current League Position 1st
The Red Devils sign and loan back Wilfried Zaha to Crystal Palace after beating many top flight clubs for the England internationals signature. The technical winger will become an instant hit at Old Trafford next season with the basis to learn from one of the best managers in the game, the potential is there for Zaha to become a real hit in the North West.
Verdict
Would of liked to of seen a centre midfielder come in to strengthen the squad however the signing of Zaha will prove to be a gamble worth taking.
6/10
Players IN: Wilfried Zaha (£15m)
Players OUT: Davide Petrucci (Loan) Scott Wootton (Loan) Robbie Brady, Angelo Henriquez (Loan) Josh King , Luke McCullough (Loan) Wilfried Zaha (Loan) Federico Macheda (Loan)
Newcastle
Current League Position 15th
Alan Pardew brought in five senior signings from Ligue 1 which has prompted the call of a French revolution. The signings of Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa and Moussa Sissoko will be key as both have international pedigree that will emulate the North East club in the coming months. The first French signing of the window was Debuchy from Lille who is well known to be good friends with Yohan Cabaye. A successful window for the magpies as they conclude their business early on.
Verdict
Strengthened squad with real quality players in key areas of the pitch. The bargain of Moussa Sissoko will be the January signing of the window for the Toon – great signing.
9/10
Players IN: Mathieu Debuchy (5m) Kevin Mbabu, Moussa Sissoko, Massadio Haidara, Yoan Gouffran , Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa (6.7m)
Players OUT: Demba Ba (7m) Conor Newton (Loan) Xisco, Mehdi Abeid (Loan) Bradden Inman (Loan)
Norwich
Current League Position 14th
Norwich head back to Leeds for another signing with Luciano Becchio the latest export from Elland Road. The Argentine scored a lot of goals in the championship and will prove to be a steady signing for the canaries in an effort to avoid the drop zone.
Verdict
Like the Becchio signing and will be interesting to see how he fairs against top class defenders. Steady Window
5/10
Players IN: Luciano Becchio, Kei Kamara (Loan)
Players OUT: Jacob Butterfield (Loan) Elliott Ward (Loan), Steve Morison, Declan Rudd (Loan), Tom Adeyemi (Loan)
QPR
Current League Position 20th
Rangers add defensive steel through the signing of Chris Samba from money bags Anzhi Makhachkala. The powerful Congo international will prove to be a fantastic purchase in QPR’s bid to avoid relegation. The signing of Samba was prompted due to the retirement of Ryan Nelsen who takes up management with MLS side Toronto FC. Loic Remy swapped the south of France for West London in an £8m move that will provide a genuine goal threat in firing the hoops to safety.
Verdict
Added much needed defensive help which was key to QPR’s transfer window and the experienced Samba will prove to be vital in both penalty areas as the London club attempt to stay up
7/10
Players IN: Loic Remy (8m) Tal Ben Haim, Christopher Samba (12.5) Yun Suk-young, Jermaine Jenas, Andros Townsend (Loan)
Players OUT: Djibril Cisse (Loan) Frankie Sutherland (Loan) Michael Harriman (Loan) Alejandro Faurlin [loan to Palermo], Michael Doughty (Loan) Anton Ferdinand (Loan) Jordan Gibbons (Loan) Rob Hulse (Loan)
Reading
Current League Position 17th
The Royals lie in a delicate position in the table and this has led the club to bring in four players to their first team squad. Reading looked to the lower leagues for the majority of their signings by securing Akpan and Blackman from Crawley and Sheff United respectively. Kelly will add great depth and experience throughout the Reading ranks.
Verdict
Some decent business in this window for the club, still remain to see whether it is will be enough come May.
5/10
Players IN: Daniel Carrico , Stephen Kelly . Hope Akpan , Nick Blackman
Players OUT: Gozie Ugwu (Loan) Dominic Samuel (Loan) Jordan Obita (Loan) Michael Hector (Loan)
Southampton
Current League Position 16th
The Saints brought in only one player to help strengthen the defence during the window. Vegard Forren was a man in high demand with Liverpool closely watching the former Molde man. After the departure of Nigel Adkins earlier in the window, it was expected that Pochettino would bring in some of his own players.
Verdict
Expected the new Saints manager to bring in a couple of players but failed dramatically. Will be interesting to see if they have enough in the second part of the season.
3/10
Players IN: Vegard Forren
Players OUT: Dan Seaborne (Loan) Ryan Dickson (Loan), Sam Hoskins (Loan) Jonathan Forte (Loan), Steve de Ridder (Loan) Ben Reeves (Loan)
Stoke
Current League Position 10th
The Potters didn’t have too much business to do during January, however the deadline day signing of Birmingham City’s goalkeeper Jack Butland will be a shrewd move. The England international has been in hot demand from the majority of Premier League sides and it was confirmed that he turned down Chelsea. USA international Shea will provide competition down the left hand side of the pitch as the MLS product will look to make his mark.
Verdict
Solid bit of business as Butland will become an International regular for years to come.
6/10
Players IN: Jack Butland (3.5m) Brek Shea (2.5m)
Players OUT: Michael Tonge, Danny Higginbotham, Rory Delap (Loan) Ryan Brunt, Jack Butland (Loan) Matthew Upson (Loan)
Sunderland
Current League Position 11th
The Black Cats had a three in three out policy this window with Danny Graham headlining the Sunderland imports. The goal scorer was desperate for a move back to the north east and the signing may highlight a need to help Steven Fletcher out in the goal scoring department.
Verdict
Graham will be a good signing and N’Diaye will provide a dominace in midfield that is much needed for the club.
6/10
Players IN: Kader Mangane (Loan) Alfred N’Diaye, Danny Graham (5m)
Players OUT: Blair Adams, David Meyler (1.5) Ahmed Elmohamady (Loan) Jonny Maddison (Loan) Fraizer Campbell (600k)
Swansea
Current League Position 8th
Swansea City did not bring any players in during the January window however they decided to sell Danny Graham to Sunderland for £5m. Michu still leads the line for the Swans and this was important for Swansea to keep hold of their talisman going into the final months of the season.
Verdict
They have allowed fringe players, to leave, so no major cause for concern. The Swans just need to keep Michu, injury free, however, the Home fans I am sure would have been hopeful to see an attacking addition to replace Graham and keep Michu company.
4/10
Players IN: N/A
Players OUT: Jamie Proctor, Danny Graham (5m) Curtis Obeng (Loan) Leroy Lita (Loan), Ashley Richards (Loan), Gwion Edwards (Loan)
Tottenham
Current League Position 4th
AVB beat off competition from many top clubs across the continent by signing German international Lewis Holtby from Schalke 04. English speaking Holtby will offer craft and guile which will provide an added dimension for a loaded squad of attacking talent. A quiet month for Spurs despite their persistent approach for Leandro Damiao that inevitably proved inconclusive in a bizarre transfer saga.
Verdict
Love the Holtby signing but another striker to keep Defoe and Adebayor on their toes would have made it a fantastic window.
8/10
Players IN: Lewis Holtby (1.5m) Zeki Fryers (3m)
Players OUT: Heurelho Gomes (Loan) Alex Pritchard (Loan) Jermaine Jenas , Andros Townsend (Loan) , Tomislav Gomelt (Loan) Simon Dawkins (Loan) , Ryan Mason (Loan)
West Brom
Current League Position 9th
Very quiet window for West Brom as they held off late interest for want away striker Peter Odemwingie. Sitting steady in mid table, the baggies will look to bolster their squad in the summer.
Verdict
Sold Chris Wood to Leicester but there wasn’t much need to buy after a good start to the season.
4/10
Players IN: Roland Lamah (Loan)
Players OUT: Sam Mantom, Gonzalo Jara, Chris Wood (1m) Dawson (Loan)
West Ham
Current League Position 13th
The Hammers made a couple of signings throughout January and took to the loan market to bolster their squad. West Ham brought Joe Cole back to the club where he made his name. Cole has had a stellar career and the chance to return back to Upton Park proved too much to turn down. Big tackler Pogatetz on loan from Hannover will be a welcome addition to an injury hit defence.
Verdict
Steady if unspectacular business from West Ham, shouldn’t add too much quality to their squad. Cole will be a welcomed signing amongst fans.
4/10
Players IN: Wellington Paulista (Loan) Marouane Chamakh (Loan) Joe Cole, Sean Maguire
Players OUT: Alou Diarra (Loan) , Stephen Henderson (Loan)
Wigan Athletic
Current League Position 18th
A busy month for Wigan who brought back Paul Scharner on loan from German side Hamburg. The second spell at the DW stadium will prove to be an astute piece of business as they bring in defensive cover for an injury prone defence. The signing of Honduran winger Roger Espinoza from MLS side Sporting Kansas will be a very clever move as a need as he will provide an immediate impact for Roberto Martinez’s side.
Verdict
Small but important business for Wigan who only tinker with their squad over January, add defensive depth which is essential for staying in the division
7/10
Players IN: Angelo Henriquez (Loan), Roger Espinoza (Free), Joel Robles (Loan), Paul Scharner (Loan)
Players OUT: Mauro Boselli (Loan) Rob Kiernan (Loan)
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Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 1)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
#FY
How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? Stats Analysis
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data.
In this article I want to show how important the analysis of data is but at the same time I am hoping to push the boundaries in terms of stimulating interest in raw football data by looking at data from the 2008-2009 onwards including the current season to find out if there is a correlation between conceding and the strength of a team.
If we look at teams that regularly occupy the Championship League spots and the Europa League places we see a level of consistency that the other teams cannot produce. But are there any variables that preclude established sides such as Spurs from considering winning the EPL?
The Top 6 Sides “FightBack” Analysis
We can see that Arsenal and Manchester City have both conceded first 59 times in the sample and Man City have been the team that have consolidated their position as a Top 2 team while Arsenal have declined in status but have maintained their levels in terms of being consistent regarding the the number of games a season where they concede first. We can also see that although Manchester City have drawn a higher % when conceding first (27%) , it is Arsenal who have only lost 49% of games when conceding first, which is much better than Manchester City as they have lost 57% of the games.
Manchester United have conceded the first goal of the game, the least amount of times (45) and Everton the most (76). There are some key issues to discuss.
- Why have Manchester United conceded the first goal so many times this season (11 at just over the half-way point) compared to 8, 8 ,12 and 6 in the previous seasons in the sample?
I could discuss that the Manchester United midfield is not good enough to protect the defence or that this is a random event that I cannot explain but I will leave that to other football bloggers because as long as Manchester United win their games when they concede first, the relevance of this new trend is weakened. It means that in the EPL when Manchester United concede then there is still expectation that they will win but this is dependent on so many factors so we cannot just put a value on Man United beating Fulham when Fulham scored on 3 minutes to lead 1-0.
– What is the expectation of further goals given that Fulham have scored the first goal on 3 minutes and are the away team?
– Will the expectation of goals increase (greater then calculated before the game started) or impede for both the teams or will the early away goal have an effect on just one team?
What value do we put on Carrick having to play as the emergency centre-half in that game or the laughable own goal by Vidic in the game or the fact that Rooney started on the bench due to lack of form and Nani did not even make the bench for the game?
It is easy to put a figure on the expectation of Man United winning at 1-0 down but much harder to justify that figure without the inclusion of several other variables such as the pitch conditions, the strength of the shots, the accuracy prevention of both teams, the weather conditions, the motivation of both teams and the possible under performance of players on the day plus the fact that Carrick had to play in a position that I do not think he is best suited to. But when Carrick has played centre-back what % of games have Manchester United lost compared to the average which also is irrelevant unless you look at the strength of the team that they play each time Carrick has played in the role.
I remember reading in the paper on the last game of the season(2010-2011) to be advised that Manchester United do not score many goals during the last game of the season. The final score was Manchester United 4 Wolves 2 . The flaw of the argument is that the strength and motivation of both teams and the time of the first goal and the goal expectation and any rain or beach balls or referee blunders or freak goals or Red cards could alter the course of the game.
As Man United are winning 72% of their games when conceding first this season then I do not believe Sir Alex will be losing too much sleep. A problem may occur if they are losing 1-0 to a team like Dortmund or Bayern Munich as they will find it rather tougher to get back in the game than they did against teams at the level of Fulham.
Sir Alex Ferguson has acknowledged that the biggest mistake he made was letting Stam go who I would consider to be one of the best defenders in the History of Manchester United.
Do we believe the story that Sir Alex was advised that Stam was tackling less in games and as a result a perceived view that his best days were behind him or was it as Stam has publicly said that Man United were in financial difficulty and needed the cash flow urgently.
At the petrol station he parked his car and got in with me. He told me that I had to be transferred. Then he said: “Will you please move to Lazio quickly?”
If we look at Everton they have consolidated their position as a top 6 side as far as I am concerned, but recently I was listening to the radio to be advised that “Everton have over achieved this season” and that this is a blip and their levels of performance will drop.
They did not offer any data to back up their prediction and I offer the following in the case for the defence of Everton
- Everton have in Baines and Fellani – two of the best players in the EPL in their positions and I would argue the case for Fellani to be player of the season with the qualities that he brings to the game. If Fellani and Baines were sold then I would re evaluate my thoughts on this by waiting to see who Everton Purchased as replacements. Players such as Howard, Neville and Distan have years of experience but I appreciate that the squad does not have youth on its side.
- Historically Everton have been very consistent finishing no lower then seventh since the 2008-2009 season and Moyes is a fantastic motivator of his squad and I can see him in charge at Old Trafford one day.
- If we look at Everton conceding first which is an excellent indicator of the strength of the team. I am not personally concerned by how many times a team concede but by how they react to the event.
Everton have conceded the first goal in 76 games during the sample but the levels remain very consistent and it has not impeded them from a high finish as they have only lost this season 9% of games when conceding first and in the sample overall they have drawn 34.66% and avoided losing 53.94% of the time. Only Manchester United in the sample of games can boast a better % which is 60.
By Jonny Grossmark
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@JonnyGrossmark
Premier League: Mid-Season Review (Part 1)
Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!
FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Midseason Review and will be updating the site throughout the week as part of an ongoing mini-series.
Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk
If you would like to submit a guest post for the site, contact Ryan at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com
Mid-Season Team Analysis – THE TOP SIX
SuperGrover has worked his socks off to bring you a comprehensive review of each and every team in the Premier League, providing his rating and insightful analysis on each team’s performances and how they have turned these into results. A truly great read, this first part covers the current top six teams.
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The festive holiday period presented games thick and fast, with numerous exciting and interesting results. Rather than a week-by-week review, I have decided to use this time to present a mid-season team summary for each Premier League squad. The summary consists of shot data (both for and against), expected goals (scored and allowed), and team ratings both for the full season and over the past six game weeks. In addition, I offer a bit of my own analysis.
Note: Percentages represent difference with league average. Defensive percentages have been reversed meaning a negative percentage actually represents defensive performance below league average. The statistics for this article cover Gameweek’s 1-22 with the exclusion of the Chelsea-Southampton match from GW22.
Starting at the head of the table we have the attacking juggernaut that is Manchester United. The Red Devils have dominated all-comers offensively, scoring seemingly at will whenever they threaten. While the underlying numbers suggest Man United. have been a bit lucky offensively (2.5 goals per game is probably not sustainable – it was last season, SoT!), they are, and most certainly will continue to be, the best attacking team in the league (along with their cross-town rivals, of course).
Defensively, Man United have been better in seasons past, although they have allowed a few more goals than one would have expected given their shot and chance numbers. Anecdotally, it seems opposition teams have a renewed belief in a questionable backline (the Reading game a prime example). Up till now however the typical United response has been to..score more and is responsible for the higher than expected goals on both sides of the pitch.
Fun Fact: United have converted just 2 of 5 (40%) penalties this season. The rest of the league has converted 34 of 43 (79%).
Prediction: Normality returns offensively somewhat and the backline stiffens a bit. Expect a slight reduction in goals on both sides the remainder of the season, but nothing that impacts their championship march.
The defending champions have had quite the first half. Sitting seven points off United, City need to step up in a hurry if a Championship Title defence is in the cards. Offensively, City have really struggled this season. Statistically, they look every bit as dominant as they did last year, but they simply haven’t converted. How much of this is due to Aguero’s fitness issues is unknown, but this team should be scoring more than they are.
Defensively, City are probably a bit better than they were last season, at least in the EPL. They are very clearly the best defensive team in the league. I don’t expect that to change over the remainder of the year.
Fun Fact: City have had at least 5 more shots in the box than their opponents in all but 4 games with only one opponent (Liverpool) able to equal their shots in the box total.
Prediction: Aguero finally gets healthy and the attack starts getting on track by the end of the month. City make a run at United, but the 7 points are too much to overcome. Second place and a new manager are on the horizon.
Two different managers and nothing much has really changed for the Blues. They still remain a superb attack, focused around sensational midfield play by Mata and Hazard. They have scored quite a few more goals than expected, possibly due to the 6 penalties scored, 2 more than anyone else and about 4.5 more than average. Defensively, they’ve been more porous than the goals allowed suggest, with Cech leading the league in save percentage among regular goalies. A top 4 spot looks almost assured with a game in hand and a 4 point lead over 5th. Beyond that, the Blues will be playing for lesser cups both in Europe and domestically.
Fun Fact: Chelsea have scored 6 penalties and has only hit the woodwork twice all season. Both numbers are easily the best among the top 10 teams.
Prediction: Chelsea keep on keeping on. They firmly establish themselves as the 3rd best team in the league, albeit a substantial bit behind the top 2.
Spurs are an interesting club. A mishmash of parts with world class talents sprinkled in (Bale, Vertonghen). Adebayor, in particular, seems a bit out of place at times and one might wonder if his trip to ACON may allow AVB to find a better fit up front. Statistically, Spurs rely on shots outside the box more than most elite attacks, primarily a result of Bale’s prolific ability from 18+ yards out. With that said, their shots on target are as expected and they neatly fit into the model for goals scored.
Defensively, Spurs are excellent at preventing shots but struggled with clear cut opportunities allowed. Should they improve down the stretch they will be one of the very best defensive units in the league, behind City.
Fun Fact: Gareth Bale has the 2nd highest rate of shots on target per minute among regular players in the league behind only Romelu Lukaku.
Prediction: Spurs continue to dominate weaker competition and sure up their backline. The attack comes and goes as quality up front is missing somewhat. Big games against Everton and Arsenal determine which European competition Tottenham play for next season.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the season so far. Everton were expected to be solid, but probably not legitimately compete for the top five. They are and I expect they will continue to do so presuming fitness.
Offensively, Everton have dominated statistically. Fellaini and Jelavic represent physically dominant players and they’ve been able to get into the box against even the best opposition. However, neither have exactly proven to be a clinical striker, Jelavic surprisingly but Fellaini not so, and the resulting conversion rates have been a major drag on goals scored.
Defensively, Everton are a bit underrated, mainly due to the lack of clean sheets. Personally I feel that this is primarily the result of a scheduling quirk which saw them face better attacking opponents at home and lesser opponents on the road. This is a recipe for a bunch of single goal conceded games, something Everton have done twelve times thus far.
Fun Fact: Nikica Jelavic has just 2 goals on his last 40 shots, 35 of which came from inside the box.
Prediction: Everton continue to be statistically elite, but lack the quality that and precision finishing necessary to challenge for a top 4 slot. Clean sheets come more regularly, but tough away fixtures doom Everton to a dog fight for a Europa slot.
Arsenal are definitely in a battle this season to continue their consecutive qualification for one the coveted Champions League spots. Given the entirety of the first half of the season, one would think qualification is unlikely. However, Arsenal has been better when Walcott has been fit (both as a winger and a central forward) so I do believe the chance remains.
To do so, Arsenal is going to need improvement on both ends of the pitch. Offensively, Arsenal generate fewer shots than any other elite side. While this has improved with Walcott, that improvement needs to continue. Defensively, Arsenal are still prone to gaffs, as evidenced by their 12 errors leading to goals conceded, the most in the league. This absolutely must stop or Arsenal may find themselves shut out of Europe altogether.
Fun Fact: The Gunners scored 23 goals in just 4 games (SOT, TOT, NEW, RDG). They have just 17 goals in the other 17 games.
Prediction: Fitness improves in the second half and the backline improves. Walcott finds his place, both as a winger and striker. Arsenal do just enough to edge Everton for 5th.
GW22 : The FPL Review
GW22 The Review by @shots_on_target
Check out www.shotsontarget.co.uk for more great articles!
Those folks who played their wildcard for a Chelsea player or two were well rewarded here, particularly with 3 assists from Juan Mata. Two of his assists were for Walter’s own goals so don’t count as key passes in the data but there’s no denying his ability to produce. He’s made a habit all season long of playing the key pass or scoring from a limited number of chances. It’s a sign of real quality. Stoke managed to put in an average performance against Chelsea but all in all this was a performance of real quality from the Billionaire’s Club (no?).
So little adventure from a home side but they came away with a point. If this performance sums up QPR’s mentality against superior teams then some more clean sheets may be on the cards. Tottenham’s ratio of shots in the box to those outside tells the same story as the Chelsea-QPR game did last week – QPR can defend like their Premier League depends on it, and it probably does. Bale is at least the equal or perhaps more of a threat in this team than the more orthodox strikers Defoe and Adebayor which serves to underline his value as a truly elite fantasy player. First game in the Premier League this season too where I think a team has not made any substitutes.
A rather “average” in game in terms of the stats but there are a few important things to take away. First of all, breaking news…. Van Persie is sweet fantasy gold. The rest of United’s team is quite unusually well off the radar. If anyone one emerges from RVP’s shadow be sure to get a quick look in. And talking of shadows, this performance from Sturridge may serve to at least obscure Suarez’s flame as Liverpools prima donna attacking force. Equivalent shots and chance created, twice as many shots in the box and his team;s only goal promotes Sturridge up in my rankings to very interesting indeed.
Swansea’s performances in games like this really showcases the tactical subtleties of Premier League football. Not for the first time Laudrup’s team have shown that, when they want to, they can defend against the best attacking teams in the league. Everton too, and unfortunately for their supporters fans, also demonstrated that when it comes to breaking down a team they have not reached the dizzying heights of attacking, creative football, no matter how taller Fellaini’s hair gets. The Belgian remained amongst the Toffee’s chief threats though, as well as the off-target Jelavic and the overlooked Anichebe.
The highlight from this game (and yes there was one) was Cisse’s low overall share of the visitor’s opportunities. I expected that, in Ba’s absence, and given the role reversal between the two last season as Newcastle’s point striker, and his compatriot’s absence that Pappis Cisse would profit from a significantly increased share of shooting chances. Not so, at least from this game, albeit a tricky away game and not one from which to form firm conclusion.
It’s always difficult to assess a game where a player is sent off so early. Arsenal managed an average league performance against City, as indicated by the yellow arrows, which is not bad with ten men you’d have to say. However, I’m not convinced. Giroud has their most shots as a sub in the last third of the game when the game situation is different anyway, moreso with Kompany’s sending off. City only managing 3 SoT though raises a few eyebrows, although the overall stats do not suggest Arsenal were unfortunate not to concede two after they went a man down.
Sunderland score three goals, and probably just about deserved all three too. West Ham have made a habit this season of conceding shots but only conceding them outside their box, outside the danger area. Here, Sunderland got their chances in the box and it’s from these they had most of their chances. McClean may be set for a resurgence in form which see’s him register the kind of interest that he did this time last season. Maybe he likes his Mam’s Christmas dinners.
Puncheon is a constant threat for Southampton and has all but assured himself a place in the team with the unfortunate injury to Lallana. Lambert of course scored the goal and despite a decent price rise ahead of the Double GW still represents good value. If Villa are going to score then you’d think Benteke has to be involved.. but how many will they score?
Personal story – I was at home quietly congratulating myself on backing West Brom’s goalie Foster for a Clean Sheet in my team when #BOOM# from 0-2 to 3-2 in no time at all. Whereas Reading’s shots where spread incredibly uniformly amongst their players the Baggie’s played everything through the enigmatic Lukaku who’s now scored 9 goals in 947 minutes, that’s essentially a goal per game.
Several weeks ago I was of the opinion that Fulham were a decent attacking team, one that ultimately may struggle to pick the lock of an out and out defensive team, a la Stoke, but still a team that were prepared to take the game to the opposition, to create chances, and to score goals. Wigan are exactly the type of team against which I’d expect Fulham to flourish, not necessarily win, but create chances, and score goals. Even an early goal in this game could not give Fulham a platform to push on. Wigan’s form over the last 4 has seen them make an improvement on their early season performances and Di Santo built on a run of games back in the team with a top game, admittedly though in the absence of Arouna Kone.
Chelsea 2 – 2 Southampton – Report to follow.
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