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Premier League: January Transfer Window on its hinges…
The team behind @FourFourTweet are not a bad lot at all!!
Many thanks to @jonnywarburton for submitting this post on the January Transfer Window. Great article. Drop a comment below for your thoughts on the current window- who do you want your team to sign… and who do you think they actually will ?? (If any!)
January transfer window takes shape as clubs start to splash the cash.
Premier League sides scour the market in an attempt to bolster squads ahead of the deadline day.
With less than a week to go until the January transfer window slams shut, Premier League sides are scrambling around in hope of acquiring some of the hottest properties on the continent. Often transfer values vary from the abnormal to the crazy however some managers have found value for money in the hope of becoming more competitive.
The first significant piece of business involved Daniel Sturridge, a highly rated forward whose career had stagnated at Chelsea. The £12millon transfer to Liverpool has proven to be the most expensive transfer fee up to now. The highly rated star has seen valuable playing time early on in his Liverpool career to help relinquish the pressures on Luis Suarez in providing an attacking threat.
Outgoing from Liverpool has seen Joe Cole return home to West Ham United on a free transfer. After a stint in Ligue 1 last season, Cole had failed to make a real positive impact at Anfield which led to Cole becoming available for transfer. The second spell at West Ham has seemed to reignite his play with two clever assists against Manachester United in the F.A Cup Third Round.
With the transfer of Sturridge to Liverpool, Chelsea were in the market for a striker to compete with out of sorts Fernando Torres. Demba Ba was the chosen man seemingly inevitable that he would leave during the window from Newcastle United due to the £7.5million release clause lying in his contract. The strong forward joined the European champions early in the window and seems to be enjoying his time there by providing two goals on his debut.
The most active club so far in the transfer window has been Newcastle United who have brought in four French players to add to their current crop of stars. Mathieu Debuchy, Yoan Gouffran, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa and Massadio Haidara have been added to the squad for a little over £15million. The quartet are joining the side hovering above the relegation zone and the Tynesiders will be hoping the signings will help boost the clubs fortunes.
Bottom of the pile QPR added Marseille forward Loic Remy for £8million in an attempt to fire them away from the relegation zone come may. The striker destined for St James Park opted to move to London after significant talks with Tony Fernandes and Harry Redknapp. The player showed his eye for goal through a debut strike away at West Ham United. QPR will be hoping to find more success in the market over the next couple of days.
Manchester United announced the £15million signing of England international Wilfried Zaha from promotion hopefuls Crystal Palace. The winger will return to the London side for the rest of the campaign in a bid to promote his current side. The promising attacker will provide stiff competition with the current crop of wingers at Old Trafford as he makes the step up to the Premier League at the start of next season.
Expect plenty of deadline day deals as this January transfer window finally takes shape. Who will overspend and who won’t spend at all, are the questions many football fans are asking as they hope their club make the signings necessary to improve their fortunes.
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Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 1)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
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How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? Stats Analysis
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data.
In this article I want to show how important the analysis of data is but at the same time I am hoping to push the boundaries in terms of stimulating interest in raw football data by looking at data from the 2008-2009 onwards including the current season to find out if there is a correlation between conceding and the strength of a team.
If we look at teams that regularly occupy the Championship League spots and the Europa League places we see a level of consistency that the other teams cannot produce. But are there any variables that preclude established sides such as Spurs from considering winning the EPL?
The Top 6 Sides “FightBack” Analysis
We can see that Arsenal and Manchester City have both conceded first 59 times in the sample and Man City have been the team that have consolidated their position as a Top 2 team while Arsenal have declined in status but have maintained their levels in terms of being consistent regarding the the number of games a season where they concede first. We can also see that although Manchester City have drawn a higher % when conceding first (27%) , it is Arsenal who have only lost 49% of games when conceding first, which is much better than Manchester City as they have lost 57% of the games.
Manchester United have conceded the first goal of the game, the least amount of times (45) and Everton the most (76). There are some key issues to discuss.
- Why have Manchester United conceded the first goal so many times this season (11 at just over the half-way point) compared to 8, 8 ,12 and 6 in the previous seasons in the sample?
I could discuss that the Manchester United midfield is not good enough to protect the defence or that this is a random event that I cannot explain but I will leave that to other football bloggers because as long as Manchester United win their games when they concede first, the relevance of this new trend is weakened. It means that in the EPL when Manchester United concede then there is still expectation that they will win but this is dependent on so many factors so we cannot just put a value on Man United beating Fulham when Fulham scored on 3 minutes to lead 1-0.
– What is the expectation of further goals given that Fulham have scored the first goal on 3 minutes and are the away team?
– Will the expectation of goals increase (greater then calculated before the game started) or impede for both the teams or will the early away goal have an effect on just one team?
What value do we put on Carrick having to play as the emergency centre-half in that game or the laughable own goal by Vidic in the game or the fact that Rooney started on the bench due to lack of form and Nani did not even make the bench for the game?
It is easy to put a figure on the expectation of Man United winning at 1-0 down but much harder to justify that figure without the inclusion of several other variables such as the pitch conditions, the strength of the shots, the accuracy prevention of both teams, the weather conditions, the motivation of both teams and the possible under performance of players on the day plus the fact that Carrick had to play in a position that I do not think he is best suited to. But when Carrick has played centre-back what % of games have Manchester United lost compared to the average which also is irrelevant unless you look at the strength of the team that they play each time Carrick has played in the role.
I remember reading in the paper on the last game of the season(2010-2011) to be advised that Manchester United do not score many goals during the last game of the season. The final score was Manchester United 4 Wolves 2 . The flaw of the argument is that the strength and motivation of both teams and the time of the first goal and the goal expectation and any rain or beach balls or referee blunders or freak goals or Red cards could alter the course of the game.
As Man United are winning 72% of their games when conceding first this season then I do not believe Sir Alex will be losing too much sleep. A problem may occur if they are losing 1-0 to a team like Dortmund or Bayern Munich as they will find it rather tougher to get back in the game than they did against teams at the level of Fulham.
Sir Alex Ferguson has acknowledged that the biggest mistake he made was letting Stam go who I would consider to be one of the best defenders in the History of Manchester United.
Do we believe the story that Sir Alex was advised that Stam was tackling less in games and as a result a perceived view that his best days were behind him or was it as Stam has publicly said that Man United were in financial difficulty and needed the cash flow urgently.
At the petrol station he parked his car and got in with me. He told me that I had to be transferred. Then he said: “Will you please move to Lazio quickly?”
If we look at Everton they have consolidated their position as a top 6 side as far as I am concerned, but recently I was listening to the radio to be advised that “Everton have over achieved this season” and that this is a blip and their levels of performance will drop.
They did not offer any data to back up their prediction and I offer the following in the case for the defence of Everton
- Everton have in Baines and Fellani – two of the best players in the EPL in their positions and I would argue the case for Fellani to be player of the season with the qualities that he brings to the game. If Fellani and Baines were sold then I would re evaluate my thoughts on this by waiting to see who Everton Purchased as replacements. Players such as Howard, Neville and Distan have years of experience but I appreciate that the squad does not have youth on its side.
- Historically Everton have been very consistent finishing no lower then seventh since the 2008-2009 season and Moyes is a fantastic motivator of his squad and I can see him in charge at Old Trafford one day.
- If we look at Everton conceding first which is an excellent indicator of the strength of the team. I am not personally concerned by how many times a team concede but by how they react to the event.
Everton have conceded the first goal in 76 games during the sample but the levels remain very consistent and it has not impeded them from a high finish as they have only lost this season 9% of games when conceding first and in the sample overall they have drawn 34.66% and avoided losing 53.94% of the time. Only Manchester United in the sample of games can boast a better % which is 60.
By Jonny Grossmark
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@JonnyGrossmark
Reading: Odd couple can still be a perfect pairing
There is an odd couple at the helm at Reading.
It’s not Russian owner Anton Zingarevich and his rather delightful wife Katsia – a Victoria’s Secret supermodel who, purely for the sake of adding colour to this article, I’ll let you go and do a quick Google Images search for now.
You’re welcome.
Anyway, the odd couple isn’t Zingarevich – an heir to a multi-billion fortune – and his lovely lady wife, but rather the Reading owner and his manager Brian McDermott. One doesn’t seem to quite fit with the other.
When Zingarevich formally purchased Reading from Sir John Madejski last May, the usual fallout from a foreign takeover could have been expected by many, yet there haven’t been behind the scenes rows, pleas for more money or angry fans demanding investment. The manager has even stayed the same.
McDermott impressively led Reading to the Championship title last season, and yet whilst the owners of the previous title winners Queens Park Rangers have dismissed two managers since they returned to the top flight, the Royals boss is still standing. He’s above QPR in the table too.
Admittedly that is the only Premier League club that McDermott and Reading find themselves above at the moment, but after three wins from their last six Premier League home games and the brilliant comeback to beat West Bromwich Albion last weekend they have at least got a decent platform to build on.
Zingarevich has helped pay for some decent players too, but by and large McDermott has been allowed to approach the task of staying up with last year’s squad left intact.
In Pavel Pogrebnyak they have a forward who adds a dash of stardust to a group of players still largely drawn from the lower leagues – and a dash that certainly bears the influence and cash of Zingarevich – but arguably the most impressive striking performances for the Royals this season have come from the likes of Adam Le Fondre, Jason Roberts and Noel Hunt, all of whom were around when the club won promotion under their popular manager.
Signing the likes of Adrian Mariappa, Chris Gunter, Garath McCleary and Danny Guthrie might not have made the headlines in the same way that signings made by clubs in similar situations have, but all have fleshed out the squad and given it a fighting chance to stay in the top flight.
Admittedly there have been times when they have look out of their depth this season, but instead of that causing a mistrust of the ability of the manager or the capability of the owner instead it seems to have forged a closer bond within the club. The final eight minutes against West Brom last Saturday were amongst the most important of the season for anyone.
A match at a struggling Newcastle this weekend offers McDermott’s men the chance to both record a first away league victory of the season and to drag another team down towards the relegation mire with them, and you can be certain that Reading’s manager, owner and supporters will be desperate for a positive result – particularly as they are coming up against Alan Pardew, a man who once sat in the Madejski Stadium hotseat whilst McDermott worked in the background.
The same can be said of another high profile Premier League manager in the form of Liverpool’s Brendan Rodgers, and whilst McDermott will have one day called those men ‘boss’ he can now look them in the eye as a contemporary. That Zingarevich has allowed him to do so says a lot about the character of both.
It would have been easy for the Russian owner to dismiss with the manager and look to attract a big name boss – with Reading’s close proximity to London no doubt making it an attractive possibility – but he stuck to his guns and has given McDermott his shot at the top flight.
There is still an awful lot of work to do to ensure that such faith will be rewarded, but you get the sense that Zingarevich goes to bed at night knowing that he’s made the right choice.
And not just with who he married.
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Newcastle United: Third season syndrome?
Given their past experiences at the top end of the Premier League table in the mid to late 1990s – times they really, really loved – it is easy to forget that Newcastle United are still a recently promoted club.
Relegation in the 2008/09 season meant a season in the Championship for the Geordies and their devoted followers, who were able to watch a team including the likes of Andy Carroll, Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton bounce straight back to the big time at the first time of asking under manager Chris Hughton.
Just a glance at those names above and a consideration of the varying degrees of success they’ve had since they held aloft the Championship trophy in 2010 will tell you that two-and-half years can be an awful long time in football, and as today’s vastly different Newcastle staff face up to the realisation that they are in another tough relegation battle they are unable to call upon the experiences of too many of those who were involved in the last one.
A reasonably solid first season back in the Premier League in 2010/11 – albeit one which didn’t prevent the removal of Hughton – was suddenly transformed into a rapid change of personnel as the likes of Carroll, Nolan, Barton and Jose Enrique departed and Demba Ba, Yohan Cabaye, Hatem Ben Arfa and Davide Santon arrived. It could have gone one of two ways, but it went upwards.
Aided by last January’s arrival of Papiss Cisse the Magpies flew to a thoroughly deserved fifth place in the table, impressing all onlookers and embarrassing a number of teams below them who had spent a lot more money in the quest for success.
Given the relative newness of the team and breath of fresh air brought by many of the personnel in some ways it was the equivalent of a new team to the division impressing in their maiden campaign; an approach which would place the current problems experienced by Alan Pardew and his side squarely in the dreaded ‘second season syndrome’ territory.
Fifteenth in the table and only two points above the relegation zone, Newcastle go into Saturday’s trip to Norwich off the back of nine defeats in their last 11 league games and a demoralising FA Cup loss at Brighton & Hove Albion last Saturday.
Pardew has problems, that much is self-evident, and with Ba deciding to swap the north-east of England for west London – ensuring that the Senegalese top scorer is just another name to come and go during Tyneside’s whirlwind two-and-a-half years – the onus will fall upon Cisse to start finding the net again to lift his side up the table.
Given that matches against fellow strugglers Aston Villa and Reading follow the Norwich game it is not too far-fetched to claim that January is the most important month for Newcastle in quite some time, especially as February brings a fixture against Ba’s Chelsea and a trip to Tottenham as well as the distraction of a two-legged Europa League tie against the Ukrainians Metalist Kharkiv.
European football appears to have come far too soon to a squad and a manager who have struggled to cope with the demands it brings, and these next few weeks before they head out onto the continent again offer a huge chance for Newcastle to pull away from those who – at the moment – appear more likely than them to remain near the foot of the table the longer the season goes on.
The Magpies dare not fail.
Their third season back in the big time has exhibited many of the characteristics of a team going through a second season of struggle after a first season of success, and with Pardew admitting that his team face a second period of the campaign in which they’ll be more concerned about the bottom places in the table than the ones at the top, the likes of Cabaye, Ben Arfa and Cisse simply can’t return to fitness and top form quick enough.
Time has a habit of flying just when you don’t want it to, after all.
FA Cup magic makes FPL points disappear!
With it being an FA Cup weekend there is excitement, supposed magic in the air and the potential for some major upsets and great fixtures. It does mean however that there are no Premier League fixtures this week so no Fantasy Premier League. There will be a full GW22 preview coming in time for next weekend and a club insight article from Fantasy Yirma ‘Pundit’ @Mark_Jones86.
For keen FPL managers all eyes will surely be watching out for the final score coming from St. Mary’s Stadium this weekend. Southampton take on Chelsea in the FA Cup on Saturday with both teams aware that they will play each other in the league in GW22 thanks to their rearranged fixture.
This match will only go ahead however if it is not a stalemate in the Cup game. In this scenario the FA Cup game would be replayed on January 16th instead of the rearranged league fixture.
Fingers are crossed that there will be a winner in the cup game between Southampton and Chelsea meaning that GW22 suddenly turns into a Double Gameweek!
Southampton are away to Aston Villa and Chelsea are away to Stoke in GW22 at the minute – throw in the potential for a Chelsea / Southampton game and suddenly we are faced with FPL questions like “Should I take a chance on Torres?” and “RAFA ROTATION….Which of his bucket-load of midfielders will get the gametime across a double gameweek??”
That is just the starting point.. Fonte , Puncheon and Lambert all have merit for consideration in the event of a DGW…
Combine this with the fact that GW23 sees Arsenal and West Ham with a DGW, the African Cup of Nations kicks off this month and the small matter that a January Wildcard is now available and to be perfectly honest – It’s probably a good thing there is no Premier League fixtures this weekend!!
There are difficult decisions ahead.
However while there may be a few challenges in the next few GWs for everyone, it is a proud day for the team at Fantasy Yirma. The FY mini-league has made it into the top 5 “best leagues” on the official fantasy.premierleague.com website.
FYI: Our mini- league is still open for anyone to join and have a go, but be warned…the standard is extremely high…
Completely FREE to PLAY with £50 for the winner. The official Fantasy Yirma mini-league is still available to join!!
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It is great to see so many people involved in our league doing so well. Looking at the players who make up the top 15 of the Fantasy Yirma mini-league and it is extemely impressive that all of them are in the top 1000 globally out of more than 2.5m players that is certainly an achievement! Leading the charge in our league is team Wallofame who is having a great season so far sitting on 1,314 points which is 28th in the entire game…
| # | Team | Manager | GW | TOT | |
| 1 | Wallofame | Sir Alex Jnr | 92 | 1,314 | |
| 2 | Ravel M FC | Saugaat Ranjan | 79 | 1,313 | |
| 3 | Rocky’s X1 | Rocky Ogle | 79 | 1,305 | |
| 4 | Fluorescent Lampards | Eli Lourie | 69 | 1,284 | |
| 5 | TerrorToon | joe p | 78 | 1,277 | |
| 6 | Colbert Nation | Tom Kingscott | 93 | 1,277 | |
| 7 | The Cucking Funts | Richard James | 64 | 1,265 | |
| 8 | Anthony’s Wingers | Didier Drogba | 94 | 1,264 | |
| 9 | juniors | Ray Harding | 81 | 1,263 | |
| 10 | Nortei Nortey | Chris Galloway | 85 | 1,262 | |
| 11 | Skycat | Richie Browne | 78 | 1,258 | |
| 12 | DreamKillers | Sarnab Das | 87 | 1,257 | |
| 13 | real kaka krakers | mell hyzam | 78 | 1,251 | |
| 14 | Grande Elias Team | Jorge Pacao | 78 | 1,249 | |
| 15 | [MUSVN] Tom | Nguyen Bui Huynh | 104 | 1,246 |
So enjoy the magic of the FA Cup this weekend because next week – FPL is back…and back with a potential DGW vengeance.
Ryan
@FantasyYirma
Guest Post: JANUARY WILDCARD by @FPL_mentor
Many thanks to @FPL_Mentor for providing this guest post! You can view more of his work at http://fantasyfootballmentor.blogspot.co.uk
Excellent resource and well worth a follow.
If you would like to feature an article on Fantasy Yirma email Ryan at FantasyYirma@hotmail.com or contact us via the website/twitter
January is almost upon us (or already is depending where you are right now!). A time of new hope, new promises and new starts. I’m not talking about New Year resolutions, I’m talking about the January wildcard.
- Player values
- The double Gameweek (DGW) in GW23 for Arsenal and West Ham
- African Cup of Nations
- Transfers that Premier League clubs will make in January
|
GW17 Value
|
GW20 Value
|
Difference
|
|
|
Robin Van Persie
|
13.8
|
14.0
|
+0.2
|
|
Demba Ba
|
8.2
|
8.3
|
+0.1
|
|
Juan Mata
|
9.5
|
9.8
|
+0.3
|
|
Michu
|
8.0
|
8.3
|
+0.3
|
|
Totals
|
39.5
|
40.4
|
+0.9
|
WILDCARD! YEAH! FREE TRANSFERS BABY!
Don’t be one of those people and you’ll be fine 🙂
GW17 – The Review.. by @shots_on_target
As per usual another great roundup from our Stat-tastic regular @Shots_on_target . Check out his site at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk
No real surprises here. Rooney and Van Persie continue to dominate chances for the most attacking team in the league. Sunderland did very well actually, beating the league average in the shot categories (green arrows). Sessegnon looks back in the kind of form which saw him attract such attention last season.

Stoke are a tricky team to play against and took a large hammer to Everton’s recent form, limiting them to just one shot on target from Jelavic (not including Shawcross’s own goal). Everton did manage to get shots off in the box but this often suits Stoke’s physical defence.

Newcastle have really picked up through the season in an attacking sense, and have started generating lots of chances. This of course is good news for Demba Ba who was doing well before hand anyway and got a goal here this week. City are moving up the gears too and deserved their win, Aguero and Tevez forming the focal point of the attack with Silva back pulling the strings.

Liverpool were tactically outdone here. Villa defended deep and in numbers and in Benteke and Weimann they have the power, pace and skill to do well on the counter-attack. Suarez continues to be the beating heart of Liverpool’s attack but it’s not an attack which can simply walk over a team like Villa who are playing well for Lambert now.

No shots on target for Swansea, and only 3 all day, compared to a quite massive 29 for Spurs. I’m going to hazard a guess that Villas-Boas’s hugely successful tactical nous from his Porto’s days was not actually a fluke and all those nights playing Football Manager must have rubbed off. There are a lot of great options in this side – Defoe and Adebayor and of course the returning Gareth Bale. Vertonghen has been promising a good game (pointswise) for a while now too.
. 
Contrary to popular belief QPR’s home form defensively is not too dissimilar to most team’s in the division and Redknapp’s switch to playing Taarabt higher up the pitch has perhaps released the shackles from the Moroccan. He still chose to hit all 7 of his shots from outside the penalty area and perhaps could be tagged as the the poor man’s Luis Suarez in this respect. If so represents quite a FPL asset as a midfielder. For Fulham, ‘Shots on Target’ favourite Bulgarian failed again to register a single shot, and despite QPR’s buoyancy under Redknapp this was a pretty woeful display for Martin Jol’s men.

Norwich’s fine form continues in a game in which they showed some guile to go with their grit. Pilkington and Hoolahan, two players frequently flirted with in FPL last season, scored and assisted the goals. The all round performance of Snodgrass stands out too. Wigan’s chief hope of something was with Kone this week but nothing to get excited about.

Another resilient display can be chalked up on Sam Allardyce’s record as he grabbed a point for his team after a game devoid of a lot of creativity. Carlton Cole is doing his best to lead the line for the Hammers in support of Nolan and the absence of Andy Carroll. James Morrison’s return to the lineup for West Brom saw him back amongst the think of the action.

Monday night’s final match of the gameweek brought perhaps the most thrill and excitement and Arsenal, led by Santi Cazorla hat-trick put the sword into Reading. Walcott’s inclusion ahead of Giroud will raise plenty of eyebrows and he had plenty of chances to score, as did Podolski. Is this a case for Theo’s inclusion in the team as the main striker from now on, does he create space and openings for the other players to flourish that Giroud does not? Or are Reading just warming up from the Championship?























