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Premier League: Fightback Statistics (Part 3)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
Part 1 of this series is available here
Part 2 of this series is available here
Relegation Threatened Teams “FightBack” Analysis
Looking at the relegation battle we see that Norwich have had an excellent season as they have consolidated on last season. I wonder if they will consolidate further next season or will they be seen to have over achieved this season.
The limitation of football models is that last season predictive models around the country gave Wigan a 81% probability of going down but they stayed up. I have not read any explanation of how they raised their game for the last few months against tough and motivated teams.
I believe that Reading (1.2) and QPR(1.58) will be relegated but the third relegation spot will be contested between Wigan (2.92), Southampton (2.3) and Aston Villa (2.90) and it could be a battle till the final whistle of the last game of the season. I personally would have Wigan as my choice as I cannot explain how they avoided relegation last season and nothing to indicate that they can avoid the trap door again.
In conclusion I leave with the thought that apart from shot strength, all the other data is available, but the problem is interpretation of the data as Newcastle season ticket holders may find they will be looking up road maps of Blackpool in the not too distant future. As a a writer of football articles I now realise that quoting figures that people cannot quantify does not help to broaden the appeal of raw data so in this article I have attempted a more user friendly approach and I hope it has worked.
Lastly here are a few graphs to show how consistently teams have faired in terms of their positions in the Premier League since 2008/09:
by @JonnyGrossmark
Stoke City: Maintaining the status quo
If you weren’t aware of just who was where in the Premier League table ahead of the midweek matches, it wouldn’t really surprise you to know that Stoke City are 10th.
They’ve pretty much always been there ever since their promotion from the Championship in 2008, bar a 3-1 defeat at Bolton in their first ever Premier League match which saw one attention-seeking bookmaker immediately pay out on the team to be relegated.
In the following years, such a move has been shown to be even more ridiculous than it looked back then.
Under manager Tony Pulis, Stoke have never been in relegation trouble at the end of any of their four completed Premier League seasons – instead focusing on an FA Cup final at the end of one of them and always proving to be one of the least appealing fixtures for any top flight team.
A lot of the attention is of course focused on the direct way that Stoke play, but Pulis, his players and the club’s fans won’t apologise for that. It is overblown anyway, and quite frankly why should they say sorry?
All teams should look to play to their strengths, and whilst the majority see their strengths change over time with the appointments of different managers and the signings of new players, Stoke’s style remains the same. Their strength is their strength.
They’ve been in the top flight for long enough now for people to look to combat it too, but with players such as Robert Huth, Ryan Shawcross, Steven Nzonzi and recently Kenwyne Jones all impressing this season, once again they’ll be nowhere near the drop zone come the end of the campaign. Flying in their face of their reputation, tidy, technical players such as Matthew Etherington and Michael Kightly have done well too.
Pulis has got all of his men to give every ounce of sweat for the club’s cause.
It may be the status quo that Stoke are where they are in the league, but where they are is surely the best position that a club of their size, infrastructure and value can be in. If that doesn’t deserve praise then what does?
It is easy for the neutrals to love Swansea – the opponents who beat Stoke 3-1 in their last Premier League match – and indeed to appreciate the football often played by Wigan – who the Potters face at the Britannia Stadium on Tuesday night – but whilst those two have survived in the top division by doing things their own way, Stoke’s similar story has been overlooked somewhat, with the focus instead on just how they’ve gone about their stay in the division.
Maybe they are victims of their own success.
Stoke have never really been in relegation trouble and so as such it is not seen as a great achievement when they do survive in the division, as they will do this season and in all likelihood for seasons to come.
They have become one of the constants of the Premier League, with their name now known continent-wide thanks to a run in the Europa League last season, another curiously under-celebrated feat that perhaps deserved a little more attention. Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle line up in the knockout stages of the tournament next month, and you can bet that more people will be talking about them.
They and you might not like Stoke’s approach to the game but surely it should be respected?
They haven’t become top division mainstays by accident. It has taken a lot of hard work to get them where they are.
And that is right in the middle of the Premier League, where they are likely to stick around for quite a while yet.
Fantasy Premier League: GW24 Insight from @RotoZdroik
The guest posts have been coming through thick and fast of late and here at FantasyYIRMA we always welcome good content!
Adam is a staff writer from www.RotoExperts.com – an extremely well respected Fantasy sports site based in the USA. Delighted to feature his thoughts on the upcoming fixtures in GW24.
As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.
The Return of Steven Gerrard
FIVE FOR FIGHTING
Maybe Demba Ba isn’t worth it.
Wait, what?! Am I saying that the 500,000 people that grabbed Ba last week made a mistake? Yes, sort of.
Ba basically started in every match at Newcastle because he was their best chance at scoring. Chelsea plays more games (FA Cup, Capital One Cup, Europa League) and has a deeper roster. Ba will not be starting every match, which is what we saw this past weekend. Fernando Torres was rested for a few games, but got the start against Arsenal. Ba will definitely get his chances to score, but at 8.9m do 37 percent of owners need him on their roster? No. Forwards like Rickie Lambert, Christian Benteke and Dimitar Berbatov will get more playing time and score plenty at a cheaper value.
Don’t spend on defence.
This wasn’t really something we just found out, but it’s still important and something you need to know. Look at these numbers at each position.
No. 5 Goalkeeper: Jussi Jaaskelainen, 83 Fantasy Points
No. 15 Goalkeeper: Ben Foster, 54 FP (29-point difference)
No. 5 Defender: Daniel Agger, 84 FP
No. 30 Defender: Ashley Williams, 62 FP (22-point difference)
No. 5 Midfielder: Eden Hazard, 122 FP
No. 30 Midfielder: Damien Duff, 72 FP (50-point difference)
No. 5 Forward: Steven Fletcher, 112 FP
No. 20 Forward: Peter Crouch, 74 FP (38-point difference)
I used different numbers at GK and FOR because obviously, there are fewer players at those positions. It’s pretty evident where you want to spend your money and it’s not either defensive position. Going even further for goalkeepers, Joe Hart costs between 1-2m more than every other GK in the game and he’s still only the third best.
Why is Leighton Baines the third most owned defender when he’s also the most expensive? He’s not RVP. Everton actually had a streak of 16 straight games without a clean sheet which makes that even more questionable. Save a couple million and buy someone like Joey O’Brien who only has 16 less FP. That price is the difference between having Suarez or Nikica Jelavic on your squad. That’s a big difference.
Steven Gerrard looks to be back to his golden days. Photo Credit: Ruaraidh Gillies
Midfield is the way to go.
Van Persie and Luis Suarez are the top strikers in the Fantasy game, far and away. Those two have a chance at scoring in every single match no matter where or who they play.
I mentioned Ba earlier, who’s the second most owned forward. Carlos Tevez, Jermaine Defoe and Fernando Torres are next in line in ownership percentages. Tevez has fallen off lately and is getting outscored by Edin Dzeko as of late, not to mention Sergio Aguero just returned from injury. Defoe has one goal in his last eight starts, which isn’t going to cut it. Torres is Torres.
Why not focus on the top echelon of midfielders who have been dominant this season? Mata leads the way along with teammate Eden Hazard. Gareth Bale is always a threat and Theo Walcott is playing in a new role and is scoring for fun. The latest Spaniards to have taken the Premier League by storm are Michu and Santi Cazorla.
I can keep going with this list too. David Silva. Marouane Fellaini has been great this year. Aaron Lennon is having one of his best years in the BPL. Adel Taarabt has bonus points in five of his last seven matches.
The return of Leiva Lucas has given Steven Gerrard a more attacking role and he’s relishing it, looking like the Gerrard from his 2008-09 days. This current scoring version of Gerrard, we have not seen in a long, long time. All of a sudden, Stevie G has four goals and eight assists in his last 10 games. He had just two goals and three assists in the first 13 games. In the two previous campaigns, he had combined for only nine goals and seven assists. We are now in the days of Gerrard.
There are so many midfielder options right now that you should be starting four or five every week and if you aren’t, you’ll be left in the dust.
WEEKLY RANKINGS
Goalkeepers
- David de Gea, Man United, 5.5m, vs. Southampton
- Joe Hart, Man City, 6.9m, at QPR
- Asmir Begovic, Stoke City, 5.8m, vs. Wigan
- Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, 5.9m, at Norwich
- Petr Cech, Chelsea, 6.4m, at Reading
Defenders
- Patrice Evra, Man United, 7.1m, vs. Southampton
- Gael Clichy, Man City, 5.6m, at QPR
- Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea, 7.1m, at Reading
- Phil Jones, Man United, 5.6m, vs. Southampton
- Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.5m, vs. West Brom
- Kyle Walker, Tottenham, 6.1m, at Norwich
- Glen Johnson, Liverpool, 6.4m, at Arsenal
- Bacary Sagna, Arsenal, 5.2m, vs. Liverpool
- Sascha Riether, Fulham, 5.0m, vs. West Ham
- Ben Davies, Swansea, 4.3m, at Sunderland
Midfielders
- Juan Mata, Chelsea, 10.0m, at Reading
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal, 9.4m, vs. Liverpool
- David Silva, Man City, 9.4m, at QPR
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.8m, at Norwich
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, 9.4m, at Arsenal
- Michu, Swansea, 8.3m, at Sunderland
- Marouane Fellaini, Everton, 7.6m, vs. West Brom
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
- Aaron Lennon, Tottenham, 7.2m, at Norwich
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
Forwards
- Robin van Persie, Man United, 14.1m, vs. Southampton
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.5m, at Arsenal
- Edin Dzeko, Man City, 7.5m, at QPR
- Carlos Tevez, Man City, 8.9m, at QPR
- Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, 6.5m, vs. Newcastle
- Wayne Rooney, Man United, 11.8m, vs. Southampton
- Demba Ba, Chelsea, 8.9m, at Reading
- Fernando Torres, Chelsea, 9.5m, at Reading
- Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.3m, vs. Liverpool
- Nikica Jelavic, Everton, 8.0m, vs. West Brom
YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN
- Robin van Persie, Man United
- Juan Mata, Chelsea
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal
- David Silva, Man City
Robin van Persie will be playing at home against a club that has allowed the second most goals on the road this season. It doesn’t get any better than that. RVP has 10 goals in his last 10 league matches to go with four assists. He leads the Premier League in goals and has the second most assists for a forward.
While there are some nice matchups this week, it might be harder than you’d think for choosing your captain outside of RVP. Man City has a tricky road battle against a QPR side that has been playing well. Arsenal and Liverpool face each other at the Emirates. Tottenham travel to Norwich, a team that’s struggling, but has also only allowed 13 goals in 11 home matches. Chelsea have what looks to be an easy match at Reading, but the Royals have been playing well as of late, winning three straight matches in all competitions.
Reading may be playing better, but I’m still going with Mata as the second best captain this week. He’s been extremely consistent as of late with four goals and five assists in his past nine matches. That includes a goal or assist in five straight road games.
This next choice is the toughest. I’m going with Luis Suarez because I think there will be goals in that game and he and Daniel Sturridge will cause problems all day for the Gunners back line. Not to mention Suarez is on fire with six goals and two assists in his last six games.
Walcott is in that same conversation with Suarez. He’s playing a more central role which has opened up opportunities for him. He’s scored at least six Fantasy Points in six of his last seven matches and one of those was a 26-point outburst. Liverpool has been better defensively in recent weeks, but this road test could bring trouble.
My last choice goes to David Silva. He deserves it after last week’s two-goal performance against Fulham. The absence of Yaya Toure allowed him more range in front of the net. Even though QPR will be a tough task, City should be able to score at least once and Silva will be around it.
*Stats up-to-date as of Jan. 28
By @RotoZdroik
About the Author
Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world.
Premier League: Mid-Season Review (Part 2)
Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!
FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Midseason Review PART 2 and will be updating the site throughout the week as part of an ongoing mini-series.
Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk
If you would like to submit a guest post for the site, contact Ryan at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com
Midseason Team Analysis – MIDTABLE
SuperGrover is back with the 2nd part of his midseason review and verdict of the Premier League teams, this time the six teams that currently reside midtable. If you missed it earlier in the week do check out his review of the the TOP SIX here. Enjoy!
A fortunate club perhaps, as the underlying statistics and goal differential do not support their point total. In attack, the Baggies are below average across the board statistically, with fewer shots and shots on target than most. Defensively, it’s much the same story. More disconcerting is the recent form which has provided West Brom with just 7 points over 9 fixtures, with the underlying numbers substantiating that record.
Fun Fact: Romelu Lukaku averages a goal about every 112 minutes, just 2 minutes off Robin Van Persie’s pace. The on loan Belgian has scored 7 goals in his last 8 starts.
Prediction: West Brom continue to slide down the league, eventually landing firmly mid-table. Romelu Lukaku remains an enigma, producing splendidly when on the pitch. Fantasy managers everywhere look on in disdain.
Former kings and current reality show darlings, Liverpool have experienced an up-and-down first season under Brendan Rodgers. Statistically, the club looks elite, every bit worthy of challenging for a UCL position. On the pitch this excellence has manifested itself at times. For example, for the majority of the home game against United Liverpool were superb, especially considering Shelvey was sent off very early in the game.
They were better than City at home but succumbed to a Skrtel error. They were the better team in the second halves against Chelsea, against Tottenham and in the return fixture with United but only after going down early in each. Alternatively, the Reds have suffered some ignominious defeats. West Bromwich beat them handily in the second half on opening day. Christian Benteke went crazy at Anfield and Stoke somehow scored three against what had been an elite defense. As I mentioned, it’s been up and down.
Fun Fact: Luis Suarez has been involved (scored or assisted) in 62.5% of goals scored while on the pitch, including assists for Baines’ own goal and the penalty won at Stoke.
Prediction: Liverpool continue to play well and establish themselves as a top 5 club heading into next season. Sturridge helps offensively and the Reds challenge Everton and Arsenal for a fifth up until the final few game weeks.
Miguel Perez Cuesta, a.k.a Michu, the transfer of the season. The lanky Spaniard has almost single-handedly rescued an attack that has been somewhat void of options without him. Defensively, the Swans started strong but seemed to succumb to injury and possibly fatigue, as the late fall saw a significant downturn in defensive performance. That has picked up a bit recently, perhaps due to a more pragmatic approach from Laudrup against equivalent or superior opponents, but Swansea remain a below average club defensively.
Fun Fact: Swansea have scored just twice off set plays, ranked last in the league. Not surprisingly, their single goal from a defender is also tied for last in the league.
Prediction: Michu and a solid midfield make Swansea a somewhat difficult match up, especially on the road. A solid top ten finish ends a great first year under Laudrup.
Bullies. Thugs. Rugby players. The Potters have heard this all before and don’t care, but they do do deserve their reputation as a big, physical group. Their underlying statistics tell the tale of a well formed, solid, damn near impenetrable backline with little offensive interest. That sums up Stoke under Pulis. Whatever the case, it’s good enough to keep them mid table.
Fun Fact: Stoke have blocked 32% of their opponents’ shots, highest in the league. Only one other team has blocked more than 29% (Sunderland). This illustrates how well they maintain order and numbers in their backline.
Prediction: Nothing sexy about Pulis’ style, but the results will continue to be there. A return of Marc Wilson could make Stoke’s defense even better through the remainder of the season.
The most successful of the promoted clubs thus far, the Hammers currently mark the beginning of the bottom of the table. West Ham have performed about as expected based upon their underlying statistics, getting a bit unlucky on shot accuracy but a bit lucky on shot conversion. In the end, you have a below average attack with about an average defense, combining to form a pretty mediocre club that should be good enough to stay well clear of relegation.
Fun Fact: Andy Carroll has scored 1 goal on 25 shots this season. Last season, he scored 4 goals on 88 shots. His 5 goals in 113 shots are 9 goals fewer than Daniel Sturridge has scored in his last 109 shots.
Prediction: The return of Andy Carroll does nothing to improve the Hammers attack. Home games remain winnable, but this is a perfectly cromulent football club.
It looked ugly early for Norwich City early on, but their underlying statistics were never as bad as the table indicated. Paul Lambert’s club have always shown some statistical upside, but finally shored up the defense to allow for the real improvement demonstrated on the pitch. Norwich remain a below average club on both sides of the ball, but are strong enough all round to be significantly better than bottom table teams such as Wigan and Reading.
Fun Fact: The Canaries have scored half of their goals from set plays with Bassong, Snodgrass and Martin all contributing on more than one occasion.
Prediction: The talent is there to maybe challenge for 10th. If not, expect status quo as the nightmares of late Summer are long forgotten.
Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 1)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
#FY
How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? Stats Analysis
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data.
In this article I want to show how important the analysis of data is but at the same time I am hoping to push the boundaries in terms of stimulating interest in raw football data by looking at data from the 2008-2009 onwards including the current season to find out if there is a correlation between conceding and the strength of a team.
If we look at teams that regularly occupy the Championship League spots and the Europa League places we see a level of consistency that the other teams cannot produce. But are there any variables that preclude established sides such as Spurs from considering winning the EPL?
The Top 6 Sides “FightBack” Analysis
We can see that Arsenal and Manchester City have both conceded first 59 times in the sample and Man City have been the team that have consolidated their position as a Top 2 team while Arsenal have declined in status but have maintained their levels in terms of being consistent regarding the the number of games a season where they concede first. We can also see that although Manchester City have drawn a higher % when conceding first (27%) , it is Arsenal who have only lost 49% of games when conceding first, which is much better than Manchester City as they have lost 57% of the games.
Manchester United have conceded the first goal of the game, the least amount of times (45) and Everton the most (76). There are some key issues to discuss.
- Why have Manchester United conceded the first goal so many times this season (11 at just over the half-way point) compared to 8, 8 ,12 and 6 in the previous seasons in the sample?
I could discuss that the Manchester United midfield is not good enough to protect the defence or that this is a random event that I cannot explain but I will leave that to other football bloggers because as long as Manchester United win their games when they concede first, the relevance of this new trend is weakened. It means that in the EPL when Manchester United concede then there is still expectation that they will win but this is dependent on so many factors so we cannot just put a value on Man United beating Fulham when Fulham scored on 3 minutes to lead 1-0.
– What is the expectation of further goals given that Fulham have scored the first goal on 3 minutes and are the away team?
– Will the expectation of goals increase (greater then calculated before the game started) or impede for both the teams or will the early away goal have an effect on just one team?
What value do we put on Carrick having to play as the emergency centre-half in that game or the laughable own goal by Vidic in the game or the fact that Rooney started on the bench due to lack of form and Nani did not even make the bench for the game?
It is easy to put a figure on the expectation of Man United winning at 1-0 down but much harder to justify that figure without the inclusion of several other variables such as the pitch conditions, the strength of the shots, the accuracy prevention of both teams, the weather conditions, the motivation of both teams and the possible under performance of players on the day plus the fact that Carrick had to play in a position that I do not think he is best suited to. But when Carrick has played centre-back what % of games have Manchester United lost compared to the average which also is irrelevant unless you look at the strength of the team that they play each time Carrick has played in the role.
I remember reading in the paper on the last game of the season(2010-2011) to be advised that Manchester United do not score many goals during the last game of the season. The final score was Manchester United 4 Wolves 2 . The flaw of the argument is that the strength and motivation of both teams and the time of the first goal and the goal expectation and any rain or beach balls or referee blunders or freak goals or Red cards could alter the course of the game.
As Man United are winning 72% of their games when conceding first this season then I do not believe Sir Alex will be losing too much sleep. A problem may occur if they are losing 1-0 to a team like Dortmund or Bayern Munich as they will find it rather tougher to get back in the game than they did against teams at the level of Fulham.
Sir Alex Ferguson has acknowledged that the biggest mistake he made was letting Stam go who I would consider to be one of the best defenders in the History of Manchester United.
Do we believe the story that Sir Alex was advised that Stam was tackling less in games and as a result a perceived view that his best days were behind him or was it as Stam has publicly said that Man United were in financial difficulty and needed the cash flow urgently.
At the petrol station he parked his car and got in with me. He told me that I had to be transferred. Then he said: “Will you please move to Lazio quickly?”
If we look at Everton they have consolidated their position as a top 6 side as far as I am concerned, but recently I was listening to the radio to be advised that “Everton have over achieved this season” and that this is a blip and their levels of performance will drop.
They did not offer any data to back up their prediction and I offer the following in the case for the defence of Everton
- Everton have in Baines and Fellani – two of the best players in the EPL in their positions and I would argue the case for Fellani to be player of the season with the qualities that he brings to the game. If Fellani and Baines were sold then I would re evaluate my thoughts on this by waiting to see who Everton Purchased as replacements. Players such as Howard, Neville and Distan have years of experience but I appreciate that the squad does not have youth on its side.
- Historically Everton have been very consistent finishing no lower then seventh since the 2008-2009 season and Moyes is a fantastic motivator of his squad and I can see him in charge at Old Trafford one day.
- If we look at Everton conceding first which is an excellent indicator of the strength of the team. I am not personally concerned by how many times a team concede but by how they react to the event.
Everton have conceded the first goal in 76 games during the sample but the levels remain very consistent and it has not impeded them from a high finish as they have only lost this season 9% of games when conceding first and in the sample overall they have drawn 34.66% and avoided losing 53.94% of the time. Only Manchester United in the sample of games can boast a better % which is 60.
By Jonny Grossmark
Follow Jonny on twitter
@JonnyGrossmark
Reading: Odd couple can still be a perfect pairing
There is an odd couple at the helm at Reading.
It’s not Russian owner Anton Zingarevich and his rather delightful wife Katsia – a Victoria’s Secret supermodel who, purely for the sake of adding colour to this article, I’ll let you go and do a quick Google Images search for now.
You’re welcome.
Anyway, the odd couple isn’t Zingarevich – an heir to a multi-billion fortune – and his lovely lady wife, but rather the Reading owner and his manager Brian McDermott. One doesn’t seem to quite fit with the other.
When Zingarevich formally purchased Reading from Sir John Madejski last May, the usual fallout from a foreign takeover could have been expected by many, yet there haven’t been behind the scenes rows, pleas for more money or angry fans demanding investment. The manager has even stayed the same.
McDermott impressively led Reading to the Championship title last season, and yet whilst the owners of the previous title winners Queens Park Rangers have dismissed two managers since they returned to the top flight, the Royals boss is still standing. He’s above QPR in the table too.
Admittedly that is the only Premier League club that McDermott and Reading find themselves above at the moment, but after three wins from their last six Premier League home games and the brilliant comeback to beat West Bromwich Albion last weekend they have at least got a decent platform to build on.
Zingarevich has helped pay for some decent players too, but by and large McDermott has been allowed to approach the task of staying up with last year’s squad left intact.
In Pavel Pogrebnyak they have a forward who adds a dash of stardust to a group of players still largely drawn from the lower leagues – and a dash that certainly bears the influence and cash of Zingarevich – but arguably the most impressive striking performances for the Royals this season have come from the likes of Adam Le Fondre, Jason Roberts and Noel Hunt, all of whom were around when the club won promotion under their popular manager.
Signing the likes of Adrian Mariappa, Chris Gunter, Garath McCleary and Danny Guthrie might not have made the headlines in the same way that signings made by clubs in similar situations have, but all have fleshed out the squad and given it a fighting chance to stay in the top flight.
Admittedly there have been times when they have look out of their depth this season, but instead of that causing a mistrust of the ability of the manager or the capability of the owner instead it seems to have forged a closer bond within the club. The final eight minutes against West Brom last Saturday were amongst the most important of the season for anyone.
A match at a struggling Newcastle this weekend offers McDermott’s men the chance to both record a first away league victory of the season and to drag another team down towards the relegation mire with them, and you can be certain that Reading’s manager, owner and supporters will be desperate for a positive result – particularly as they are coming up against Alan Pardew, a man who once sat in the Madejski Stadium hotseat whilst McDermott worked in the background.
The same can be said of another high profile Premier League manager in the form of Liverpool’s Brendan Rodgers, and whilst McDermott will have one day called those men ‘boss’ he can now look them in the eye as a contemporary. That Zingarevich has allowed him to do so says a lot about the character of both.
It would have been easy for the Russian owner to dismiss with the manager and look to attract a big name boss – with Reading’s close proximity to London no doubt making it an attractive possibility – but he stuck to his guns and has given McDermott his shot at the top flight.
There is still an awful lot of work to do to ensure that such faith will be rewarded, but you get the sense that Zingarevich goes to bed at night knowing that he’s made the right choice.
And not just with who he married.
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Where do you think Reading will finish? Drop a comment below…
#FPL GW22: NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!
| 12 Jan 12:45 | QPR |  |
0 – 0 |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Aston Villa |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Everton |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Fulham |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Norwich |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Reading |  |
3 – 2 |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Stoke City |  |
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| 12 Jan 15:00 | Sunderland |  |
3 – 0 |  |
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| 13 Jan 13:30 | Man Utd |  |
2 – 1 |  |
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| 13 Jan 16:00 | Arsenal |  |
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Gameweek 18 preview: Santi presents Wigan with a problem
Santi is coming to Wigan, and perhaps he should be coming into your team too.
We all know that this is a special time of year, a time to look forward to and dread in equal measure.
That’s right, the Fantasy Cup starts on Saturday, and including Arsenal’s Santi Cazorla (£9.7m) in your Fantasy team could see you gain the edge over your opponent and secure a spot in the next round quicker than reindeers move on Christmas Eve.
Of course it’s easy to react to a player’s stellar performance in a previous game – such as Cazorla’s hat-trick at Reading – and immediately put him in to your team in the hope that he will repeat such a world-beating display, but there is a genuine reason behind putting your money on Arsenal’s Spanish star succeeding at Wigan in Saturday’s early kick-off.
It’s called the Marouane Fellaini problem.
Everton’s Belgian ace was fortunate to only receive a three game ban for his headbutt on Stoke’s Ryan Shawcross last weekend, but nonetheless he has still presented the many Fantasy bosses who own him with a dilemma. Those who have the luxury of some extra money stashed away – and we all need that at this time of year – will probably be thinking that they could go one of five ways.
But Gareth Bale (£9.5m) still isn’t back from injury, Eden Hazard (£9.5m) has gone off the boil somewhat and David Silva (£9.4m) hasn’t found the net regularly enough. There is of course Juan Mata (£9.5m), but Chelsea face an Aston Villa side who have just brilliantly beaten Liverpool, whilst the ex-Valencia man played the vast majority of Wednesday’s Capital One Cup match against Leeds in midweek.
Bringing in Cazorla should of course come with the warning that Arsenal’s Boxing Day game against West Ham has been called off due to Tube strikes, but the club are reportedly looking to play that match in early January, raising the prospect of a double Gameweek in the near future for their Spanish star. Santi’s gifts should be well received.
Elsewhere this weekend the match between Newcastle and QPR brings together one team who have been on a steady decline in recent weeks and another one who have just experienced their campaign’s only high point.
Harry Redknapp’s Rangers will head for St James’s Park following the Adel Taarabt (£5.6m) inspired 2-1 win over Fulham last weekend, but Newcastle know that they simply have to win this match following their recent struggles, and they showed enough promise in last weekend’s loss to Manchester City to show that they will give their visitors problems.
Demba Ba (£8.2m) scored his 11th league goal of the season in that match, and he could be turned to again as Alan Pardew’s side look to puncture any QPR optimism immediately.
On Sunday Robin van Persie (£13.8m) and Wayne Rooney (£12.0m) will again team up as Manchester United face a tricky trip to Swansea, which they should be going in to only three points clear at the top of the table given that Manchester City face a home match with Reading on Saturday. Sergio Agüero (£11.0m) and Yaya Touré (£7.9m) look to be the players who’ll impress there, although Javi Garcia (£5.0m) is an intriguing cheap choice following his goal last weekend.
The Fellaini-less Everton go to West Ham where Nikica Jelavić (£8.2m) will be looked to for goals, whilst Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers has hinted that he could be ready to rest Raheem Sterling (£5.7m) for the home match against Fulham, meaning that even more onus could be put on Luis Suarez (£10.3m) – although the Uruguayan hasn’t scored in his last four games.
The popular Stoke duo of Asmir Begovic (£5.6m) and Shawcross (£5.8m) will face a tough task as they go to Tottenham, whilst Southampton’s Rickie Lambert (£6.1m) and Jason Puncheon (£4.8m) will be looked to to impress against struggling Sunderland.
West Brom’s fine form may have stuttered somewhat, but they can pick it up against Norwich at The Hawthorns, where James Morrison(£6.3m) can be counted on to provide a threat to the visitors.
GW17 – The Review.. by @shots_on_target
As per usual another great roundup from our Stat-tastic regular @Shots_on_target . Check out his site at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk
No real surprises here. Rooney and Van Persie continue to dominate chances for the most attacking team in the league. Sunderland did very well actually, beating the league average in the shot categories (green arrows). Sessegnon looks back in the kind of form which saw him attract such attention last season.
Stoke are a tricky team to play against and took a large hammer to Everton’s recent form, limiting them to just one shot on target from Jelavic (not including Shawcross’s own goal). Everton did manage to get shots off in the box but this often suits Stoke’s physical defence.
Newcastle have really picked up through the season in an attacking sense, and have started generating lots of chances. This of course is good news for Demba Ba who was doing well before hand anyway and got a goal here this week. City are moving up the gears too and deserved their win, Aguero and Tevez forming the focal point of the attack with Silva back pulling the strings.
Liverpool were tactically outdone here. Villa defended deep and in numbers and in Benteke and Weimann they have the power, pace and skill to do well on the counter-attack. Suarez continues to be the beating heart of Liverpool’s attack but it’s not an attack which can simply walk over a team like Villa who are playing well for Lambert now.
No shots on target for Swansea, and only 3 all day, compared to a quite massive 29 for Spurs. I’m going to hazard a guess that Villas-Boas’s hugely successful tactical nous from his Porto’s days was not actually a fluke and all those nights playing Football Manager must have rubbed off. There are a lot of great options in this side – Defoe and Adebayor and of course the returning Gareth Bale. Vertonghen has been promising a good game (pointswise) for a while now too.
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Contrary to popular belief QPR’s home form defensively is not too dissimilar to most team’s in the division and Redknapp’s switch to playing Taarabt higher up the pitch has perhaps released the shackles from the Moroccan. He still chose to hit all 7 of his shots from outside the penalty area and perhaps could be tagged as the the poor man’s Luis Suarez in this respect. If so represents quite a FPL asset as a midfielder. For Fulham, ‘Shots on Target’ favourite Bulgarian failed again to register a single shot, and despite QPR’s buoyancy under Redknapp this was a pretty woeful display for Martin Jol’s men.
Norwich’s fine form continues in a game in which they showed some guile to go with their grit. Pilkington and Hoolahan, two players frequently flirted with in FPL last season, scored and assisted the goals. The all round performance of Snodgrass stands out too. Wigan’s chief hope of something was with Kone this week but nothing to get excited about.
Another resilient display can be chalked up on Sam Allardyce’s record as he grabbed a point for his team after a game devoid of a lot of creativity. Carlton Cole is doing his best to lead the line for the Hammers in support of Nolan and the absence of Andy Carroll. James Morrison’s return to the lineup for West Brom saw him back amongst the think of the action.
Monday night’s final match of the gameweek brought perhaps the most thrill and excitement and Arsenal, led by Santi Cazorla hat-trick put the sword into Reading. Walcott’s inclusion ahead of Giroud will raise plenty of eyebrows and he had plenty of chances to score, as did Podolski. Is this a case for Theo’s inclusion in the team as the main striker from now on, does he create space and openings for the other players to flourish that Giroud does not? Or are Reading just warming up from the Championship?
Aston Villa: A light at the end of the tunnel?
Optimism has been in pretty short supply at Aston Villa over the past couple of years.
It seems so long ago now, but Villa actually finished sixth three seasons in a row between 2007/08 and 2009/10. Champions League football was even mentioned in dispatches back then but ultimately the club had to settle for ‘just’ Europa League qualification. The dates and times that these finishes took place do sound vaguely recent, but to Villa fans they must seem like decades ago – perhaps even alongside the club’s European Cup win in 1982. So, so much has changed.
Largely they have changed for the worse, as a season of mediocrity under Gerard Houllier was then followed by a campaign under the disliked Alex McLeish which made Houllier’s look good.
In the summer, Paul Lambert entered a club who had just finished two points and two places above the relegation zone. Had the bounce of a ball here or a shot off the post there been slightly different then the Premier League might now have only six clubs who have been ever-present during its 20 year history and not seven. Villa could have easily gone down.
They could easily go down this season if you believed what many pundits and observers were saying both back in the summer and when Lambert got off to a poor start with only one win in his first nine league games, but things were slowly starting to take a turn for the better before Saturday’s trip to Anfield where they suddenly hit fast forward.
Villa’s young side were excellent at the weekend.
It is no great achievement to soak up the pressure that Liverpool’s frequently toothless side put on you on their home ground, but to combine that with the attacking prowess that Villa showed in scoring three goals showed that things are beginning to come together for Lambert’s men.
Whilst a young back four of Matthew Lowton, Ciaran Clark, Eric Lichaj and Nathan Baker did excellently at one end to shackle Luis Suarez and company, it was left to Andreas Weimann and the brute force of Christian Benteke to flatten Liverpool at the other. This wasn’t a smash and grab, it was far more perfectly executed than that.
And the key thing about it was that it was achieved with such a young team. Take out the goalkeeper Brad Guzan and the average age of Villa’s outfield players was under 23. In a season when we have heard much about Liverpool’s youngsters here were Villa’s flattening the Reds on their own ground.
As with all young teams there will be the bad days as well as the good – with Sunday’s visit to Chelsea hardly one to look forward to – but Villa will take confidence and belief there following a run of five league matches unbeaten since they were hammered 5-0 by Manchester City last month. Throw in a 4-1 Capital One Cup win over an in-form Norwich and suddenly Lambert might be targeting a positive result at Stamford Bridge.
Wins like that can wait though, especially with such a young side, and whilst caution should be urged given that Villa are still just three points off the bottom three and facing Tottenham after they play Chelsea those first flickers of optimism should be returning to supporters’ faces.
This will still be a slow process no matter how many times they can pull off wins like Saturday’s, how many goals Benteke scores or how many blocks their fearless back four can make, but at least Villa fans can acknowledge that it is finally a process. After a couple of years of stagnation things appear to be moving again.
Whether Villa will get to the heights they used to reach remains to be seen, but it promises to be fun watching them try.
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