Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 1)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
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#FY
How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? Stats Analysis
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data.
In this article I want to show how important the analysis of data is but at the same time I am hoping to push the boundaries in terms of stimulating interest in raw football data by looking at data from the 2008-2009 onwards including the current season to find out if there is a correlation between conceding and the strength of a team.
If we look at teams that regularly occupy the Championship League spots and the Europa League places we see a level of consistency that the other teams cannot produce. But are there any variables that preclude established sides such as Spurs from considering winning the EPL?
The Top 6 Sides “FightBack” Analysis
We can see that Arsenal and Manchester City have both conceded first 59 times in the sample and Man City have been the team that have consolidated their position as a Top 2 team while Arsenal have declined in status but have maintained their levels in terms of being consistent regarding the the number of games a season where they concede first. We can also see that although Manchester City have drawn a higher % when conceding first (27%) , it is Arsenal who have only lost 49% of games when conceding first, which is much better than Manchester City as they have lost 57% of the games.
Manchester United have conceded the first goal of the game, the least amount of times (45) and Everton the most (76). There are some key issues to discuss.
- Why have Manchester United conceded the first goal so many times this season (11 at just over the half-way point) compared to 8, 8 ,12 and 6 in the previous seasons in the sample?
I could discuss that the Manchester United midfield is not good enough to protect the defence or that this is a random event that I cannot explain but I will leave that to other football bloggers because as long as Manchester United win their games when they concede first, the relevance of this new trend is weakened. It means that in the EPL when Manchester United concede then there is still expectation that they will win but this is dependent on so many factors so we cannot just put a value on Man United beating Fulham when Fulham scored on 3 minutes to lead 1-0.
– What is the expectation of further goals given that Fulham have scored the first goal on 3 minutes and are the away team?
– Will the expectation of goals increase (greater then calculated before the game started) or impede for both the teams or will the early away goal have an effect on just one team?
What value do we put on Carrick having to play as the emergency centre-half in that game or the laughable own goal by Vidic in the game or the fact that Rooney started on the bench due to lack of form and Nani did not even make the bench for the game?
It is easy to put a figure on the expectation of Man United winning at 1-0 down but much harder to justify that figure without the inclusion of several other variables such as the pitch conditions, the strength of the shots, the accuracy prevention of both teams, the weather conditions, the motivation of both teams and the possible under performance of players on the day plus the fact that Carrick had to play in a position that I do not think he is best suited to. But when Carrick has played centre-back what % of games have Manchester United lost compared to the average which also is irrelevant unless you look at the strength of the team that they play each time Carrick has played in the role.
I remember reading in the paper on the last game of the season(2010-2011) to be advised that Manchester United do not score many goals during the last game of the season. The final score was Manchester United 4 Wolves 2 . The flaw of the argument is that the strength and motivation of both teams and the time of the first goal and the goal expectation and any rain or beach balls or referee blunders or freak goals or Red cards could alter the course of the game.
As Man United are winning 72% of their games when conceding first this season then I do not believe Sir Alex will be losing too much sleep. A problem may occur if they are losing 1-0 to a team like Dortmund or Bayern Munich as they will find it rather tougher to get back in the game than they did against teams at the level of Fulham.
Sir Alex Ferguson has acknowledged that the biggest mistake he made was letting Stam go who I would consider to be one of the best defenders in the History of Manchester United.
Do we believe the story that Sir Alex was advised that Stam was tackling less in games and as a result a perceived view that his best days were behind him or was it as Stam has publicly said that Man United were in financial difficulty and needed the cash flow urgently.
At the petrol station he parked his car and got in with me. He told me that I had to be transferred. Then he said: “Will you please move to Lazio quickly?”
If we look at Everton they have consolidated their position as a top 6 side as far as I am concerned, but recently I was listening to the radio to be advised that “Everton have over achieved this season” and that this is a blip and their levels of performance will drop.
They did not offer any data to back up their prediction and I offer the following in the case for the defence of Everton
- Everton have in Baines and Fellani – two of the best players in the EPL in their positions and I would argue the case for Fellani to be player of the season with the qualities that he brings to the game. If Fellani and Baines were sold then I would re evaluate my thoughts on this by waiting to see who Everton Purchased as replacements. Players such as Howard, Neville and Distan have years of experience but I appreciate that the squad does not have youth on its side.
- Historically Everton have been very consistent finishing no lower then seventh since the 2008-2009 season and Moyes is a fantastic motivator of his squad and I can see him in charge at Old Trafford one day.
- If we look at Everton conceding first which is an excellent indicator of the strength of the team. I am not personally concerned by how many times a team concede but by how they react to the event.
Everton have conceded the first goal in 76 games during the sample but the levels remain very consistent and it has not impeded them from a high finish as they have only lost this season 9% of games when conceding first and in the sample overall they have drawn 34.66% and avoided losing 53.94% of the time. Only Manchester United in the sample of games can boast a better % which is 60.
By Jonny Grossmark
Follow Jonny on twitter
@JonnyGrossmark
Premier League: Mid-Season Review (Part 1)
Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!
FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Midseason Review and will be updating the site throughout the week as part of an ongoing mini-series.
Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk
If you would like to submit a guest post for the site, contact Ryan at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com
Mid-Season Team Analysis – THE TOP SIX
SuperGrover has worked his socks off to bring you a comprehensive review of each and every team in the Premier League, providing his rating and insightful analysis on each team’s performances and how they have turned these into results. A truly great read, this first part covers the current top six teams.
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The festive holiday period presented games thick and fast, with numerous exciting and interesting results. Rather than a week-by-week review, I have decided to use this time to present a mid-season team summary for each Premier League squad. The summary consists of shot data (both for and against), expected goals (scored and allowed), and team ratings both for the full season and over the past six game weeks. In addition, I offer a bit of my own analysis.
Note: Percentages represent difference with league average. Defensive percentages have been reversed meaning a negative percentage actually represents defensive performance below league average. The statistics for this article cover Gameweek’s 1-22 with the exclusion of the Chelsea-Southampton match from GW22.
Starting at the head of the table we have the attacking juggernaut that is Manchester United. The Red Devils have dominated all-comers offensively, scoring seemingly at will whenever they threaten. While the underlying numbers suggest Man United. have been a bit lucky offensively (2.5 goals per game is probably not sustainable – it was last season, SoT!), they are, and most certainly will continue to be, the best attacking team in the league (along with their cross-town rivals, of course).
Defensively, Man United have been better in seasons past, although they have allowed a few more goals than one would have expected given their shot and chance numbers. Anecdotally, it seems opposition teams have a renewed belief in a questionable backline (the Reading game a prime example). Up till now however the typical United response has been to..score more and is responsible for the higher than expected goals on both sides of the pitch.
Fun Fact: United have converted just 2 of 5 (40%) penalties this season. The rest of the league has converted 34 of 43 (79%).
Prediction: Normality returns offensively somewhat and the backline stiffens a bit. Expect a slight reduction in goals on both sides the remainder of the season, but nothing that impacts their championship march.
The defending champions have had quite the first half. Sitting seven points off United, City need to step up in a hurry if a Championship Title defence is in the cards. Offensively, City have really struggled this season. Statistically, they look every bit as dominant as they did last year, but they simply haven’t converted. How much of this is due to Aguero’s fitness issues is unknown, but this team should be scoring more than they are.
Defensively, City are probably a bit better than they were last season, at least in the EPL. They are very clearly the best defensive team in the league. I don’t expect that to change over the remainder of the year.
Fun Fact: City have had at least 5 more shots in the box than their opponents in all but 4 games with only one opponent (Liverpool) able to equal their shots in the box total.
Prediction: Aguero finally gets healthy and the attack starts getting on track by the end of the month. City make a run at United, but the 7 points are too much to overcome. Second place and a new manager are on the horizon.
Two different managers and nothing much has really changed for the Blues. They still remain a superb attack, focused around sensational midfield play by Mata and Hazard. They have scored quite a few more goals than expected, possibly due to the 6 penalties scored, 2 more than anyone else and about 4.5 more than average. Defensively, they’ve been more porous than the goals allowed suggest, with Cech leading the league in save percentage among regular goalies. A top 4 spot looks almost assured with a game in hand and a 4 point lead over 5th. Beyond that, the Blues will be playing for lesser cups both in Europe and domestically.
Fun Fact: Chelsea have scored 6 penalties and has only hit the woodwork twice all season. Both numbers are easily the best among the top 10 teams.
Prediction: Chelsea keep on keeping on. They firmly establish themselves as the 3rd best team in the league, albeit a substantial bit behind the top 2.
Spurs are an interesting club. A mishmash of parts with world class talents sprinkled in (Bale, Vertonghen). Adebayor, in particular, seems a bit out of place at times and one might wonder if his trip to ACON may allow AVB to find a better fit up front. Statistically, Spurs rely on shots outside the box more than most elite attacks, primarily a result of Bale’s prolific ability from 18+ yards out. With that said, their shots on target are as expected and they neatly fit into the model for goals scored.
Defensively, Spurs are excellent at preventing shots but struggled with clear cut opportunities allowed. Should they improve down the stretch they will be one of the very best defensive units in the league, behind City.
Fun Fact: Gareth Bale has the 2nd highest rate of shots on target per minute among regular players in the league behind only Romelu Lukaku.
Prediction: Spurs continue to dominate weaker competition and sure up their backline. The attack comes and goes as quality up front is missing somewhat. Big games against Everton and Arsenal determine which European competition Tottenham play for next season.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the season so far. Everton were expected to be solid, but probably not legitimately compete for the top five. They are and I expect they will continue to do so presuming fitness.
Offensively, Everton have dominated statistically. Fellaini and Jelavic represent physically dominant players and they’ve been able to get into the box against even the best opposition. However, neither have exactly proven to be a clinical striker, Jelavic surprisingly but Fellaini not so, and the resulting conversion rates have been a major drag on goals scored.
Defensively, Everton are a bit underrated, mainly due to the lack of clean sheets. Personally I feel that this is primarily the result of a scheduling quirk which saw them face better attacking opponents at home and lesser opponents on the road. This is a recipe for a bunch of single goal conceded games, something Everton have done twelve times thus far.
Fun Fact: Nikica Jelavic has just 2 goals on his last 40 shots, 35 of which came from inside the box.
Prediction: Everton continue to be statistically elite, but lack the quality that and precision finishing necessary to challenge for a top 4 slot. Clean sheets come more regularly, but tough away fixtures doom Everton to a dog fight for a Europa slot.
Arsenal are definitely in a battle this season to continue their consecutive qualification for one the coveted Champions League spots. Given the entirety of the first half of the season, one would think qualification is unlikely. However, Arsenal has been better when Walcott has been fit (both as a winger and a central forward) so I do believe the chance remains.
To do so, Arsenal is going to need improvement on both ends of the pitch. Offensively, Arsenal generate fewer shots than any other elite side. While this has improved with Walcott, that improvement needs to continue. Defensively, Arsenal are still prone to gaffs, as evidenced by their 12 errors leading to goals conceded, the most in the league. This absolutely must stop or Arsenal may find themselves shut out of Europe altogether.
Fun Fact: The Gunners scored 23 goals in just 4 games (SOT, TOT, NEW, RDG). They have just 17 goals in the other 17 games.
Prediction: Fitness improves in the second half and the backline improves. Walcott finds his place, both as a winger and striker. Arsenal do just enough to edge Everton for 5th.
GW23: Nothing but FPL Bonus Points!
Here are the bonus points for GW23 so far with 1 fixture remaining.
We want to hear from you.
How many points are you on now?
What are your thoughts on the Bonus points this week and this season?
Who do you think should have got bonus points but didn’t?
Who got bonus points that you didn’t think would?
Drop a comment under the article and we will RT all responses on the @FantasyYirma twitter account.
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Liverpool |  |
5 – 0 |  |
Norwich |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Man City |  |
2 – 0 |  |
Fulham |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Newcastle |  |
1 – 2 |  |
Reading |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Swansea |  |
3 – 1 |  |
Stoke City |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | West Ham |  |
1 – 1 |  |
QPR |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Wigan |  |
2 – 3 |  |
Sunderland |
| 19 Jan 17:30 | West Brom |  |
2 – 2 |  |
Aston Villa |
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| 20 Jan 13:30 | Chelsea |  |
2 – 1 |  |
Arsenal |
| 20 Jan 16:00 | Tottenham |  |
1 – 1 |  |
Man Utd |
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| 21 Jan 20:00 | Southampton |  |
0 – 0 |  |
Everton |
| 23 Jan 19:45 | Arsenal |
Giroud 3 Podolski 2 Walcott 1 |
v |
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West Ham |
Chelsea v Arsenal : AFC Blog perspective!
FantasyYIRMA are happy to feature club blogs from all SuperSunday fixtures – Still looking for a preview from Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United today. Tweet us at @fantasyYirma or email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com to submit your blog post!
The Arsenal Blog was supplied by @jamrockrover check out his Arsenal site at http://everarsenal.blogspot.ie/?m=0
Great follow and great site for all #AFC fans
Arsenal’s Premier League Trip To Chelsea Previewed
Arsenal make the trip to Chelsea in the early kick off today. It’s a game they really need to get something from after taking only one point in their last two league games. The fight for fourth spot is going to be a tough one this season and Arsenal need to pick up the pace to stay in it.
Currently they are six points behind Spurs with a game in hand and superior goal difference. A win could see them overtake Spurs with another win at home to West Ham on Wednesday in Arsenal’s game in hand if Spurs lose at home to United later today. It’s not an impossible scenario, but winning at Chelsea is the hardest part of it for Arsenal.
Chelsea have only managed one win in their last seven home league games, but that was the 8-0 thumping of Aston Villa. They have been far more effective away from home since Rafa Benitez took over as caretaker manager. Wins in both of those games for Arsenal would actually see them close the gap on third placed Chelsea to two points.
It looks like Arsenal will have the same players available to them that they had on Wednesday night in the FA Cup victory over Swansea. The temptation for Arsene Wenger will be to go with the same line up which performed so well in the second half of that game in particular. He certainly has to keep Jack Wilshere in the team after he gave a virtuoso display.
Laurent Koscielny will be available again after serving his one match ban in that game, but I think the partnership between Per Mertesacker and Thomas Vermaelen has to be allowed to continue. I think the best central defensive partnership for Arsenal is one containing Mertesacker and either Vermaelen or Koscielny. It’s up to the boss to find that perfect combination and I would be very surprised if Mertesacker didn’t play.
I have never been wholly convinced by Vermaelen and Koscielny together in the team and I think it would be a mistake to play them against Chelsea. The defence performed admirably against Swansea despite not having an awful lot to do and I think the same defence should play again. I thought Vermaelen looked like he might just be coming back into some good form too which could be very important for the team.
In midfield Wilshere has to play the same role that he did against Swansea with Abou Diaby behind him and probably Francis Coquelin too. I would hope to see Olivier Giroud play at centre forward too as I think his ability to act as a target man could be very important. It’s hard to look beyond Theo Walcott and Santi Cazorla in the wide roles which would see the same team start as on Wednesday night.
I’m sure there will be a temptation to play Lukas Podolski in particular and both Aaron Ramsey and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain too. There is no doubt that all three of those players could fit into the team, but I think the same team should play again after the way they played on Wednesday night. The way they pressurised the Swansea players into mistakes was something that will be needed against Chelsea for the full 90 minutes.
Arsenal have traveled quite well this season and only City have lost less games than them away from home. They have the best defensive record away from home in the league along with Swansea and they will need to show that against Chelsea. When Chelsea won 2-1 at he Emirates earlier this season they exploited Arsenal’s weakness from set pieces.
Arsenal were outplayed in that game but created enough chances to have got at least a draw from the game. If their defending from set pieces had been any better the result of that game might have been very different. Chelsea still pose a real threat from set pieces and Arsenal have to be aware of that today.
Chelsea have some very good players and the ability to cause problems for any team. To get a result today Arsenal will need to work very hard for every single minute of the game. I expect Chelsea to play their strongest team despite their upcoming Capital One Cup semi final second leg.
The Premier League is far more important and they need to consolidate their current third position. They are 13 points behind the leaders though with 16 games to play and have no realistic chance of winning the title. They would be quite happy to take all three points today and move 11 points clear of Arsenal.
Arsenal have been hard to figure out too often this season as their performances have varied so much from game to game. All too often they have been far too slow out of the blocks and done very little in the first half of matches. They need to be switched on from the first minute to the last if they are to get anything from this game.
I think they have the ability to do just that and I’m predicting a very narrow victory for Arsenal as I always do. Hopefully a victory over Chelsea will give the team the boost it needs to go on and get the results they need to finish in the top our. A defeat wouldn’t make that impossible but the boost a victory would bring could be very important.
There are some more big games coming up for Arsenal before the end of the month, but every game is a big one right now really. They are playing twice a week at the moment and it’s not easy for a club with such a small squad. Hopefully some quality players can be added before the transfer window closes to give the boss some more real options.
At least Theo Walcott’s future has been decided and he won’t be leaving the club this summer after all. I genuinely thought he was on the way out the door and I’m pleasantly surprised that he signed his contract extension. I’m still not completely convinced by him as a player at the highest level though and most certainly not as a central striker.
It makes a change for a player to decide his future lies at Arsenal and for Walcott to buck the trend of recent seasons. I’m not sure he’s good enough to warrant being the top paid player at the club and what the consequences of his wage rise will be in wage negotiations with other players. The next big test for Arsenal will be the future of Bacary Sagna as he has only 18 months left on his contract and he looks like he could be the next player to choose to leave the club.
His displeasure with the sale of the clubs best players over the last few seasons has been reported before and I can’t believe the club haven’t tried to secure his future already. He is a very good full back and there would be plenty of clubs interested in buying him if he decided his future lay elsewhere. It’s another drama the club could do without and I really hope it doesn’t come to that.
Back to today’s game and Arsenal’s chances against Chelsea. I don’t think Arsenal’s season has really kicked off properly yet, but the right result against Chelsea could be just the catalyst they need. I may be more than a little over optimistic in my assessment but that’s just the way I am when it comes to my team.
Don’t forget to check out his Arsenal Blog at http://everarsenal.blogspot.ie/?m=0
TIPS OUT FOR YIRMA
Tips out for Yirma
Two of the Yirma tipsters love betting on corners at Anfield, and this season’s TOFY trophy has been designed with that in mind.
GAMEWEEK 23
Here within the Fantasy Yirma administration team, we like to pretend we have money. With that in mind we have devised a FY Tipster selection competition.
The loser from the Admin team at the end of the season will pay the £50 prize fund for the mini league!!
Here’s the current standings after Gameweek 22:
| FY Tipster | GW22 Spend | GW22 Return | Total Spend | Total Return | Difference |
| @pedro_lamb | £30 | £30 | £660 | £645.78 | – £14.22 |
| @mark_jones86 | £30 | £27 | £660 | £507.19 | – £152.81 |
| @ryano83 | £30 | £0 | £660 | £770.66 | + £110.66 |
Rules
Each player must place three £10 bets (Monopoly) per gameweek. (SINGLES ONLY/ PL Only)
The bet can be on any individual result/market/outcome with the only proviso being that you must stipulate the odds at time of selection submission and it must be from the same odds provider.
In practice this means your three £10 bets can be across three fixtures or three markets within one match.
Get your tips out for Yirma!!!
Gameweek 23 tips:
£10 Reading to beat Newcastle 15/4
£10 Man City (-2.0) to Draw v Fulham
£10 West Brom to beat Aston Villa 3-0 12/1
£10 Swansea v Stoke Draw 9/4
£10 Chelsea v Arsenal Over 3.5 goals 13/8
£10 Man Utd to beat Tottenham and 3 or 4 toal goals in the match 4/1
£10 Norwich to have more first half corners v Liverpool 5/1
£10 Thomas Vermaelen to score anytime v Chelsea 9/1
£10 Tottenham v Man Utd Draw 23/10
The official FantasyYIRMA GW23 Preview is online and available here
Gameweek 23 preview: Suarez to clip Canaries’ wings again?
Drop your bet selections in the comment box below!! 🙂
Guest Post: Weekend’s Football Value Bets
Big thanks to Leroy from Leroysbettingtips.co.uk for providing FantasyYirma with his own personal selections for this weekend’s Football. Delighted to feature him on the site. You can follow Leroy on Twitter also at @LeroyFootyTips
Weekend’s Football Value Bets
It’s a big weekend for me coming up and there is a fair amount of football that interests me through Europe.
I have selected two of my stand out bets to share with you.
The first comes from France in the game between Sochaux v Reims taking place Saturday afternoon and I will be betting on both teams to score here. With both sides struggling near the foot of the table this becomes a game in which I believe neither side would be happy to settle for a point. Both are locked on 19 points each and are also joint on the same points with Evian TG who play Friday night away to Lyon and whom also occupy the last relegation place in the table. Sochaux have managed to find the net in all but two of their home games so far this season and although Reims do struggle for goals on the road, they will surely be going all out for 3 points here in this crucial game and they did score twice against Lorient in their 2-2 draw just last weekend which will have done their confidence the world of good going forward after a dire spell without a goal on the road. This should be a pretty end to end game in my opinion and therefore I feel the odds of 2.1 with Coral just look a touch too big for me.
The other bet features on Sunday afternoon and comes from the African Cup Of Nations opener between hosts South Africa v Cape Verde who make their tournament debut here. I am a big fan of African football and have seen a fair bit of football from both nations over the past couple of years and I really feel Cape Verde are capable of springing a surprise here. South Africa have hit a bit of a downward spiral in recent times and really have not impressed me. Of course what they do have here over their opponents is the experience of playing on the big stages of world football and that may well play a part here along with the fact that they are the hosts so an obvious advantage there but Cape Verde will be up for this game and they are dangerous, especially going forward. They managed 12 goals in their final 5 games of qualification and won games over the likes of Cameroon and Zimbabwe. Lille forward Ryan Mendes could be the difference here, the 23 year old is a hot prospect for the future and one to watch out for in this tournament.
Cape Verde would surprise most by even achieving a draw in this game and I feel they well capable of that. If they were to lose I would bet it by just a single goal so I see huge value in taking them to win this game with a +1 Asian Handicap at odds of 1.8 with Marathon. This means if they were to lose this game by just a single goal we would have our stakes returned to us and the bet effectively made void.
Weekend Football Value Bets
Sochaux v Reims – BTTS – 2.1@Coral – France – 15.00 KO
South Africa v Cape Verde +1AH – 1.8@Marathon – African Nations – 16.00 KO
For more football tips & other sports betting tips from a variety of different sports, free competitions and bet giveaways please visit my website Leroysbettingtips.co.uk
Still time to join the FantasyYirma mini-league!!
You can still join the #FantasyYirma mini-league – be warned the competition is tough! The FantasyYirma mini-league is one of the TOP 5 RANKED in the overall game! Click the link below to Join.
Official FantasyYirma League. FREE TO PLAY With a £50 the winner. Click to Join. http://fantasy.premierleague.com/my-leagues/15005/join/?autojoin-code=44397-15005
The prize money is provided by the FY Admin team member with the lowest total score at the end of the season…
To take £50 off your mate in a bet is fun- to make him sponsor the league for an entire season …is funnier.
The official FantasyYIRMA GW23 Preview is online and available here
Gameweek 23 preview: Suarez to clip Canaries’ wings again?
Guest Post: Looking forward to GW23
Many Thanks to Adam Zdroik, (@RotoZdroik) Staff Writer for www.RotoExperts.com for sending through this piece!
If you would like to get involved and submit a guest post email Ryan to FantasyYirma@hotmail.com
GW23: WEEKLY TIP
A lot of people added Chelsea players last week because of their double Gameweek. This time, Arsenal has a double and will likely see an uptake in transfers this week. Plus, after this week, three of their next four games will be at the Emirates. Let’s have a look at the players you should get for your squad.
Arsenal have been above average defensively this year and that’s where Szczesny comes in. He’s not all that expensive at 5.3m and there’s no reason he won’t be a top keeper this week. Kieran Gibbs is their best defensive option on the back line at only 5.6m. He likes to get forward and has shown he can either score or assist. Bacary Sagna recently returned from injury and has played well on the flank. He is valued at just 5.1m, making him an easy choice to pick up.
Even though Santi Cazorla has more Fantasy Points on the year, Theo Walcott is the better midfielder to own. He was recently moved to a central attacking role and has destroyed the opposition with his speed. Even after being held scoreless against Man City, Walcott still has four goals and four assists in his last five games. Jack Wilshere can also be looked at it, but he’s a pretty big stretch for 6.4m.
At forward, Olivier Giroud has not started in five straight games, so you have to go with Lukas Podolski up front. He’s been a streaky player this year and his 8.2m price tag wouldn’t be worth it unless he had a double.
West Ham also has a double, but I’m not planning on changing my squad to add one of their players. They are really struggling to do anything right now.
I mentioned Everton last week and have to say something again this week. Their next three opponents are Southampton, West Brom and Aston Villa. Having at least two of the Toffees on your squad would be wise for the coming weeks.
WEEKLY RANKINGS
Goalkeepers
- Joe Hart, Man City, 6.9m, vs. Fulham
- Pepe Reina, Liverpool, 5.8m, vs. Norwich
- Wojciech Szczesny, Arsenal, 5.3m, at Chelsea, vs. West Ham
- Jussi Jaaskelainen, West Ham, 5.3m, vs. QPR, at Arsenal
- Ben Foster, West Brom, 5.0m, vs. Aston Villa
Defenders
- Glen Johnson, Liverpool, 6.4m, vs. Norwich
- Bacary Sagna, Arsenal, 5.1m, at Chelsea, vs. West Ham
- Pablo Zabaleta, Man City, 5.9m, vs. Fulham
- Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.5m, at Southampton
- Patrice Evra, Man United, 7.0m, at Tottenham
- Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea, 7.1m, vs. Arsenal
- Kieran Gibbs, Arsenal, 5.6m, at Chelsea, vs. West Ham
- Chico, Swansea, 4.8m, vs. Stoke City
- Winston Reid, West Ham, 5.1m, vs. QPR, at Arsenal
- Mathieu Debuchy, Newcastle, 5.0m, vs. Reading
Midfielders
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal, 9.0m, at Chelsea, vs. West Ham
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, 9.4m, vs. Norwich
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.8m, vs. Man United
- Santi Cazorla, Arsenal, 9.6m, at Chelsea, vs. West Ham
- Juan Mata, Chelsea, 10.0m, vs. Arsenal
- Michu, Swansea, 8.3m, vs. Stoke City
- David Silva, Man City, 9.4m, vs. Fulham
- Kevin Nolan, West Ham, 6.5m, vs. QPR, at Arsenal
- Adel Taarabt, QPR, 5.7m, at West Ham
- Eden Hazard, Chelsea, 9.4m, vs. Arsenal
Forwards
- Robin van Persie, Man United, 14.1m, at Tottenham
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.4m, vs. Norwich
- Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.2m, at Chelsea, vs. West Ham
- Edin Dzeko, Man City, 7.4m, vs. Fulham
- Carlos Tevez, Man City, 8.9m, vs. Fulham
- Demba Ba, Chelsea, 8.9m, vs. Arsenal
- Romelu Lukaku, West Brom, 6.4m, at Stoke City, vs. Aston Villa
- Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, 6.7m, at West Brom
- Daniel Sturridge, Liverpool, 7.3m, vs. Norwich
- Jermaine Defoe, Tottenham, 8.4m, vs. Man United
YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN
- Robin van Persie, Man United
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal
- Lukas Podolski, Arsenal
- Edin Dzeko, Man City
There are no surprises here. Van Persie continued his scoring streak against Liverpool. He has scored in eight of the past nine matches to go with four assists. He’s the most expensive player by far for a reason. He makes a normally tough decision easy, when you can captain him no matter what the schedule says.
Suarez didn’t score at Old Trafford, but I wouldn’t fret about him. He already has 15 goals for the campaign, just two less than RVP. A home game against a struggling Norwich squad, which has one point in their last five matches, awaits.
My next two picks are a couple of Gunners. When you have a double Gameweek, you tend to be a safer Fantasy pick, much like Chelsea players last week. A road match at Chelsea isn’t all that favorable, but a game at home against a West Ham club that’s currently a mess should produce some numbers.
Walcott is playing great in his new role, which has shot him up the charts as one of the hottest players in the game. Podolski is my other play because he’s the starting forward over Olivier Giroud. That’s all that matters.
My fifth captain choice goes to Dzeko who gets the nod slightly over Tevez. I know Tevez had two assists last week, but Dzeko has been the consistent scorer. He’s always in the right place at the right time. Playing at the Etihad against Fulham should net him at least one goal.
Post by @RotoZdroik
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Gameweek 23 preview: Suarez to clip Canaries’ wings again?
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Those folks who played their wildcard for a Chelsea player or two were well rewarded here, particularly with 3 assists from Juan Mata. Two of his assists were for Walter’s own goals so don’t count as key passes in the data but there’s no denying his ability to produce. He’s made a habit all season long of playing the key pass or scoring from a limited number of chances. It’s a sign of real quality. Stoke managed to put in an average performance against Chelsea but all in all this was a performance of real quality from the Billionaire’s Club (no?).
So little adventure from a home side but they came away with a point. If this performance sums up QPR’s mentality against superior teams then some more clean sheets may be on the cards. Tottenham’s ratio of shots in the box to those outside tells the same story as the Chelsea-QPR game did last week – QPR can defend like their Premier League depends on it, and it probably does. Bale is at least the equal or perhaps more of a threat in this team than the more orthodox strikers Defoe and Adebayor which serves to underline his value as a truly elite fantasy player. First game in the Premier League this season too where I think a team has not made any substitutes.
A rather “average” in game in terms of the stats but there are a few important things to take away. First of all, breaking news…. Van Persie is sweet fantasy gold. The rest of United’s team is quite unusually well off the radar. If anyone one emerges from RVP’s shadow be sure to get a quick look in. And talking of shadows, this performance from Sturridge may serve to at least obscure Suarez’s flame as Liverpools prima donna attacking force. Equivalent shots and chance created, twice as many shots in the box and his team;s only goal promotes Sturridge up in my rankings to very interesting indeed.
Swansea’s performances in games like this really showcases the tactical subtleties of Premier League football. Not for the first time Laudrup’s team have shown that, when they want to, they can defend against the best attacking teams in the league. Everton too, and unfortunately for their supporters fans, also demonstrated that when it comes to breaking down a team they have not reached the dizzying heights of attacking, creative football, no matter how taller Fellaini’s hair gets. The Belgian remained amongst the Toffee’s chief threats though, as well as the off-target Jelavic and the overlooked Anichebe.
The highlight from this game (and yes there was one) was Cisse’s low overall share of the visitor’s opportunities. I expected that, in Ba’s absence, and given the role reversal between the two last season as Newcastle’s point striker, and his compatriot’s absence that Pappis Cisse would profit from a significantly increased share of shooting chances. Not so, at least from this game, albeit a tricky away game and not one from which to form firm conclusion.
It’s always difficult to assess a game where a player is sent off so early. Arsenal managed an average league performance against City, as indicated by the yellow arrows, which is not bad with ten men you’d have to say. However, I’m not convinced. Giroud has their most shots as a sub in the last third of the game when the game situation is different anyway, moreso with Kompany’s sending off. City only managing 3 SoT though raises a few eyebrows, although the overall stats do not suggest Arsenal were unfortunate not to concede two after they went a man down.
Sunderland score three goals, and probably just about deserved all three too. West Ham have made a habit this season of conceding shots but only conceding them outside their box, outside the danger area. Here, Sunderland got their chances in the box and it’s from these they had most of their chances. McClean may be set for a resurgence in form which see’s him register the kind of interest that he did this time last season. Maybe he likes his Mam’s Christmas dinners.
Puncheon is a constant threat for Southampton and has all but assured himself a place in the team with the unfortunate injury to Lallana. Lambert of course scored the goal and despite a decent price rise ahead of the Double GW still represents good value. If Villa are going to score then you’d think Benteke has to be involved.. but how many will they score?
Personal story – I was at home quietly congratulating myself on backing West Brom’s goalie Foster for a Clean Sheet in my team when #BOOM# from 0-2 to 3-2 in no time at all. Whereas Reading’s shots where spread incredibly uniformly amongst their players the Baggie’s played everything through the enigmatic Lukaku who’s now scored 9 goals in 947 minutes, that’s essentially a goal per game.
Several weeks ago I was of the opinion that Fulham were a decent attacking team, one that ultimately may struggle to pick the lock of an out and out defensive team, a la Stoke, but still a team that were prepared to take the game to the opposition, to create chances, and to score goals. Wigan are exactly the type of team against which I’d expect Fulham to flourish, not necessarily win, but create chances, and score goals. Even an early goal in this game could not give Fulham a platform to push on. Wigan’s form over the last 4 has seen them make an improvement on their early season performances and Di Santo built on a run of games back in the team with a top game, admittedly though in the absence of Arouna Kone.
Chelsea 2 – 2 Southampton – Report to follow.
Gameweek 23 preview: Suarez to clip Canaries’ wings again?
Norwich City must hate it that Luis Suarez (£10.4m) is never out of the headlines. It only brings back bad memories.
Liverpool’s Uruguayan forward may have found himself back in the news yet again, but he is unlikely to let that distract him from his goal this weekend, which is namely to improve upon the six goals he’s scored against Norwich the last two times he’s faced them.
Back-to-back hat-tricks at Carrow Road at the back end of last season and the beginning of this one make Suarez a player to watch when the Reds meet the Canaries at Anfield on Saturday afternoon, and with Liverpool coming into the match off the back of scoring 12 goals in their last five home games then they are sure to be confident.
Daniel Sturridge (£7.3m) is certain to make a first Premier League start for the Reds as he bids to follow up on last weekend’s goal in the defeat at Old Trafford, but it is Suarez’s form in this fixture that simply can’t be ignored, and the Uruguayan looks to be a man to follow following six goals in his last six Anfield appearances.
Elsewhere it is Arsenal who are attracting all of the attention ahead of their Double Gameweek, and rightly so.
Jack Wilshere (£6.4m) impressed in the FA Cup in midweek and could be a decent squad addition for those who have the cash, but the attention simply has to be drawn to Theo Walcott (£9.1m) once again.
One of the big hits of the Christmas period, Walcott should start in his preferred striking role as Arsenal go to Chelsea and then host West Ham in back-to-back matches which look to be vital for their hopes of a top four place.
The away game at Chelsea is of course the more difficult of the two, but Rafael Benitez’s team have struggled at home recently, and Walcott will back himself to impress against a defence who don’t look the quickest. They could become even slower should John Terry (£6.5m) return to the team at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
Other Arsenal players to keep an eye on ahead of the Double Gameweek include Kieran Gibbs (£5.6m), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (£7.2m) and Lukas Podolski (£8.2m), whilst the Gunners’ capability to concede a goal or two should also draw the eye to West Ham’s players this week, particularly given that the first leg of their double comes at home to bottom club Queens Park Rangers.
Kevin Nolan (£6.5m) features in 12.8% of teams already and that number only looks like going up ahead of those two tests, whilst the return from injury of Mohamed Diame (£4.7m) is also a boost to Sam Allardyce and his squad.
Elsewhere, the Manchester City defence looks likely to keep a clean sheet at home to a powderpuff Fulham attack, and with Vincent Kompany (£7.1m) now available after his red card at Arsenal was overturned he’s likely to take his place at the back alongside the likes of Matija Nastasic (£5.6m) and Gael Clichy (£5.6m).
Tottenham’s clash with Manchester United on Sunday looks to be one in which attacking players will shine in, and with Wayne Rooney (£11.8m) now back to fitness he’ll offer an interesting alternative for managers who can’t quite afford Robin van Persie (£14.1m).
Twenty-four hours earlier, Michu (£8.3m) will go in search of a first Premier League goal since before Christmas – a drought by his standards – as Swansea host Stoke in a clash of styles, whilst Southampton’s recent improvement will be tested by Everton when the two sides meet at St Mary’s on Monday night. Saints defender Luke Shaw (£4.0m) is proving to be a valuable wildcard addition to several teams.
Romelu Lukaku (£6.5m) could be one too, and on Saturday night the West Brom forward lines up against an Aston Villa outfit who have shipped goals recently.
Like Norwich, Villa might want to avoid the headlines on Sunday morning.
What are your thoughts on GW23?? Leave a comment below. You can also follow us on Twitter @FantasyYirma
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