The Lamb’s Wild(card)

As a Derby County fan, @pedro_lamb‘s only involvement with the Premier League is through the Fantasy Premier League game.

An avid FPL player, The Lamb’s imaginatively –titled team Lamb County have managed to claw themselves up to 32,964th in the overall game this season, as well as 149th in Yirma and an impressive third in the Yirma head-to-head league.

With the end of January approaching, The Lamb settled down to make a decision that he knew would make or break his season, his bank balance and his mood until August. It was Wildcard time.

Here are The Lamb’s thoughts – and only HIS thoughts – as he takes on every Fantasy manager’s biggest challenge.

Warning: the following is not for the faint-hearted:

Image

Who needs goalkeepers anyway?

Well it’s January and my head hurts, as I cut, bring in, drop, select, then re-drop, then re-select, finally drop him and then keep the same player I had to start off with……!!! Yep, it’s the pain of playing your January transfer Wildcard.

So I think I have finally decided on my team. One, because the deadline is nearly here, and most importantly two, if I spend any more time on the website I think my boss may sack me.

I have gone for a very radical move. Very radical.

Prepare yourselves…

My team doesn’t have a first choice keeper… Or in fact a second choice keeper…

I have selected two keepers who have more chance of being elected Prime Minister of Greenland than playing for their teams.

If they do play, I would be more than happy to drop them to have the current Prime Minister of Greenland Kuupik Kleist as my goalkeeper.

This bold – some would say visionary – idea has freed up enough funds to have both Mata and Bale in my team.

The more I think about it, not having a keeper, is it such a bad idea? And the answer is No, because even this season’s best scoring keeper Begovic, is averaging less than 4 points a game, both Mata and Bale are over 5 and over 38 Gameweeks, that is an additional 76 points, need I say any more? *Please don’t – Ed.*

The Lamb shoots and scores with another genius Fantasy Football idea. All hail the Lamb. The days of making Lucas Leiva captain and selecting the potentially brilliant Tom Huddlestone are behind me. This one’s a winner.

—————-

Time for a few more Wildcard thoughts.

I have waited as long as possible in case the transfer windows kicks off in a big way, sadly it hasn’t so I won’t be bringing in some of the young guns from the Championship that have been on every transfer gossip page throughout January.

So it looks like Will Hughes won’t be the big gamble for my team, he would have been cheap and made a lot of points, he could be next years must have cheap player, the new Charlie Adam in fantasy football terms!!! You heard it here first folks. *giggles*

The biggest problem with this window has been the unknown factor. Which of the January signings will actually get decent time on the pitch?

Ba is a prime example. He’s cheap and can score, but realistically are Chelsea going to keep Torres and his £50 million price tag on the bench? I can’t see it and I think he is destined to just make weekly cameo appearances.

Then there is Sturridge, but I am sorry you can’t overlook Suarez, he just too good at the minute, and again I can’t see Sturridge playing every game.

As for City, the main problem is ‘will he won’t he?’ It’s everybody’s favourite Italian again.

If Mario Balotelli goes then maybe I will invest in Aguero, but at the moment two games could go by and he’ll only get a few minutes on the pitch.

Also the inconsistent nature of Arsenal means selecting any of their players is going to be a very irritating. Some weeks they will be brilliant and other weeks they bring a whole new meaning to the word awful.

Despite this I suggest picking Theo Walcott. Now his future has been sorted I think this may settle him and the whole squad down, so maybe that famous Arsenal consistency might just return.

———-

No goalkeepers were harmed in the giving of this advice.

Fantasy Football: Tips out for Yirma! GW24

 

If @Pedro_Lamb wins his 100/1 correct score bet @ryano83 and @mark_jones86 may as well concede… he wont though so it’s ok….I hope…

Name this fish… 

Fluke Fish

GAMEWEEK 24

Here within the Fantasy Yirma administration team, we like to pretend we have money. With that in mind we have devised a FY Tipster selection competition.

The loser from the Admin team at the end of the season will pay the £50 prize fund for the mini league!!

Here’s the current standings after Gameweek 23:

FY Tipster GW23 Spend GW23 Return Total Spend Total Return  Difference
@pedro_lamb £30  £87.50 £690 £733.28 £43.28
@mark_jones86 £30  £0 £690 £507.19 – £182.81
@ryano83 £30  £33 £690 £803.66 + £113.66

Rules

Each player must place three £10 bets (Monopoly) per gameweek. (SINGLES ONLY/ PL Only)

The bet can be on any individual result/market/outcome with the only proviso being that you must stipulate the odds at time of selection submission and it must be from the same odds provider.

In practice this means your three £10 bets can be across three fixtures or three markets within one match.

Get your tips out for Yirma!!!

Gameweek 24 tips:

@pedro_lamb

£10 Correct Score QPR 2 -5 Man City 100/1

£10 Newcastle Win 9/5

£10 Swansea Win 2/1

@mark_jones86

£10 Villa v Newcastle 0-0 17/2

£10 Norwich Win 10/3

£10 Liverpool win 11/5

@ryano83

£10  Stoke to win (less than 2.5 goals in the game) 10/3

£10 West Ham win 5/2

£10 Everton Draw 14/5

Fantasy Premier League: GW24 Insight from @RotoZdroik

The guest posts have been coming through thick and fast of late and here at FantasyYIRMA we always welcome good content!

Adam is a staff writer from www.RotoExperts.com – an extremely well respected Fantasy sports site based in the USA. Delighted to feature his thoughts on the upcoming fixtures in GW24.

As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.

The Return of Steven Gerrard

FIVE FOR FIGHTING

Maybe Demba Ba isn’t worth it.

Wait, what?! Am I saying that the 500,000 people that grabbed Ba last week made a mistake? Yes, sort of.

Ba basically started in every match at Newcastle because he was their best chance at scoring. Chelsea plays more games (FA Cup, Capital One Cup, Europa League) and has a deeper roster. Ba will not be starting every match, which is what we saw this past weekend. Fernando Torres was rested for a few games, but got the start against Arsenal. Ba will definitely get his chances to score, but at 8.9m do 37 percent of owners need him on their roster? No. Forwards like Rickie Lambert, Christian Benteke and Dimitar Berbatov will get more playing time and score plenty at a cheaper value.

Don’t spend on defence.

This wasn’t really something we just found out, but it’s still important and something you need to know. Look at these numbers at each position.

No. 5 Goalkeeper: Jussi Jaaskelainen, 83 Fantasy Points
No. 15 Goalkeeper: Ben Foster, 54 FP (29-point difference)

No. 5 Defender: Daniel Agger, 84 FP
No. 30 Defender: Ashley Williams, 62 FP (22-point difference)

No. 5 Midfielder: Eden Hazard, 122 FP
No. 30 Midfielder: Damien Duff, 72 FP (50-point difference)

No. 5 Forward: Steven Fletcher, 112 FP
No. 20 Forward: Peter Crouch, 74 FP (38-point difference)

I used different numbers at GK and FOR because obviously, there are fewer players at those positions. It’s pretty evident where you want to spend your money and it’s not either defensive position. Going even further for goalkeepers, Joe Hart costs between 1-2m more than every other GK in the game and he’s still only the third best.

Why is Leighton Baines the third most owned defender when he’s also the most expensive? He’s not RVP. Everton actually had a streak of 16 straight games without a clean sheet which makes that even more questionable. Save a couple million and buy someone like Joey O’Brien who only has 16 less FP. That price is the difference between having Suarez or Nikica Jelavic on your squad. That’s a big difference.

 steven_Gerrard

Steven Gerrard looks to be back to his golden days. Photo Credit: Ruaraidh Gillies

Midfield is the way to go.
Van Persie and Luis Suarez are the top strikers in the Fantasy game, far and away. Those two have a chance at scoring in every single match no matter where or who they play.

I mentioned Ba earlier, who’s the second most owned forward. Carlos Tevez, Jermaine Defoe and Fernando Torres are next in line in ownership percentages. Tevez has fallen off lately and is getting outscored by Edin Dzeko as of late, not to mention Sergio Aguero just returned from injury. Defoe has one goal in his last eight starts, which isn’t going to cut it. Torres is Torres.

Why not focus on the top echelon of midfielders who have been dominant this season? Mata leads the way along with teammate Eden Hazard. Gareth Bale is always a threat and Theo Walcott is playing in a new role and is scoring for fun. The latest Spaniards to have taken the Premier League by storm are Michu and Santi Cazorla.

I can keep going with this list too. David Silva. Marouane Fellaini has been great this year. Aaron Lennon is having one of his best years in the BPL. Adel Taarabt has bonus points in five of his last seven matches.

The return of Leiva Lucas has given Steven Gerrard a more attacking role and he’s relishing it, looking like the Gerrard from his 2008-09 days. This current scoring version of Gerrard, we have not seen in a long, long time. All of a sudden, Stevie G has four goals and eight assists in his last 10 games. He had just two goals and three assists in the first 13 games. In the two previous campaigns, he had combined for only nine goals and seven assists. We are now in the days of Gerrard.

There are so many midfielder options right now that you should be starting four or five every week and if you aren’t, you’ll be left in the dust.

WEEKLY RANKINGS

Goalkeepers

  1. David de Gea, Man United, 5.5m, vs. Southampton
  2. Joe Hart, Man City, 6.9m, at QPR
  3. Asmir Begovic, Stoke City, 5.8m, vs. Wigan
  4. Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, 5.9m, at Norwich
  5. Petr Cech, Chelsea, 6.4m, at Reading

Defenders

  1. Patrice Evra, Man United, 7.1m, vs. Southampton
  2. Gael Clichy, Man City, 5.6m, at QPR
  3. Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea, 7.1m, at Reading
  4. Phil Jones, Man United, 5.6m, vs. Southampton
  5. Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.5m, vs. West Brom
  6. Kyle Walker, Tottenham, 6.1m, at Norwich
  7. Glen Johnson, Liverpool, 6.4m, at Arsenal
  8. Bacary Sagna, Arsenal, 5.2m, vs. Liverpool
  9. Sascha Riether, Fulham, 5.0m, vs. West Ham
  10. Ben Davies, Swansea, 4.3m, at Sunderland

Midfielders

  1. Juan Mata, Chelsea, 10.0m, at Reading
  2. Theo Walcott, Arsenal, 9.4m, vs. Liverpool
  3. David Silva, Man City, 9.4m, at QPR
  4. Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.8m, at Norwich
  5. Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, 9.4m, at Arsenal
  6. Michu, Swansea, 8.3m, at Sunderland
  7. Marouane Fellaini, Everton, 7.6m, vs. West Brom
  8. Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
  9. Aaron Lennon, Tottenham, 7.2m, at Norwich
  10. Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading

Forwards

  1. Robin van Persie, Man United, 14.1m, vs. Southampton
  2. Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.5m, at Arsenal
  3. Edin Dzeko, Man City, 7.5m, at QPR
  4. Carlos Tevez, Man City, 8.9m, at QPR
  5. Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, 6.5m, vs. Newcastle
  6. Wayne Rooney, Man United, 11.8m, vs. Southampton
  7. Demba Ba, Chelsea, 8.9m, at Reading
  8. Fernando Torres, Chelsea, 9.5m, at Reading
  9. Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.3m, vs. Liverpool
  10. Nikica Jelavic, Everton, 8.0m, vs. West Brom

YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN

  1. Robin van Persie, Man United
  2. Juan Mata, Chelsea
  3. Luis Suarez, Liverpool
  4. Theo Walcott, Arsenal
  5. David Silva, Man City

Robin van Persie will be playing at home against a club that has allowed the second most goals on the road this season. It doesn’t get any better than that. RVP has 10 goals in his last 10 league matches to go with four assists. He leads the Premier League in goals and has the second most assists for a forward.

While there are some nice matchups this week, it might be harder than you’d think for choosing your captain outside of RVP. Man City has a tricky road battle against a QPR side that has been playing well. Arsenal and Liverpool face each other at the Emirates. Tottenham travel to Norwich, a team that’s struggling, but has also only allowed 13 goals in 11 home matches. Chelsea have what looks to be an easy match at Reading, but the Royals have been playing well as of late, winning three straight matches in all competitions.

Reading may be playing better, but I’m still going with Mata as the second best captain this week. He’s been extremely consistent as of late with four goals and five assists in his past nine matches. That includes a goal or assist in five straight road games.

This next choice is the toughest. I’m going with Luis Suarez because I think there will be goals in that game and he and Daniel Sturridge will cause problems all day for the Gunners back line. Not to mention Suarez is on fire with six goals and two assists in his last six games.

Walcott is in that same conversation with Suarez. He’s playing a more central role which has opened up opportunities for him. He’s scored at least six Fantasy Points in six of his last seven matches and one of those was a 26-point outburst. Liverpool has been better defensively in recent weeks, but this road test could bring trouble.

My last choice goes to David Silva. He deserves it after last week’s two-goal performance against Fulham. The absence of Yaya Toure allowed him more range in front of the net. Even though QPR will be a tough task, City should be able to score at least once and Silva will be around it.

*Stats up-to-date as of Jan. 28

By @RotoZdroik

About the Author

Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world.

 

Fantasy Football: The “must have” Midfielders !

There is a wealth of information out there now related to Fantasy Football. The good news is that so much of it is well worth a read when considering changes for your #FPL squad. This article is no exception, a fantastic guest post from @fpl_mentor on the Midfielders your team needs to be thinking of! The link at the bottom will take you to the original article. Highly recommended.

As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.

Must Have FPL Players – Midfielders

If you’ve been following my team over the last few weeks, you’ll know that I used my January wildcard in GW22. One of my main objectives was to come out of DGW22 and DGW23 not only having exploited them as much as possible, but also to end up with RVP and my dream midfield.I say my dream midfield, but it’s turned into somewhat of a template midfield in FPL terms – the Magic 5 of Mata, Walcott, Bale, Michu and Fellaini.

Having said that, the player with the lowest owned % of the 5 is Gareth Bale at 16.7% so that’s the absolute maximum % of FPL managers who have this midfield. Realistically it’s more likely to be closer to the lower end of the 5-10% range at most, if even that, so it’s not quite as common a 5-man midfield as you may have been led to believe.
So why is this 5 so special then? What makes them the ‘Magic 5’?
Let’s have a look at some of the important figures – minutes played, total points scores, and most importantly in my opinion, the number of points they score per 90 minutes played.

I’ve taken the 10 highest scoring midfielders so far this season so you can see how the Magic 5 compare to the other 5 that make up the top 10. The following table shows all 10 listed in descending order according to their total number of points. Ignore the 2 columns on the right for now, I’ll get to those shortly.
Rank
Player
name
% of teams
owned by
Current
price
Minutes played
Total points
Points per 90
minutes played
Value for
money
1
Mata
27.0%
10.0
1589
137
7.76
77.60%
2
Michu
49.0%
8.4
1878
130
6.23
74.17%
3
Cazorla
19.0%
9.6
2025
129
5.73
59.72%
4
Gerrard
7.0%
9.5
2070
128
5.57
58.58%
5
Hazard
21.6%
9.4
1789
127
6.39
67.97%
6
Walcott
21.7%
9.4
1226
121
8.88
94.50%
7
Bale
16.8%
9.8
1661
118
6.39
65.24%
8
Fellaini
34.2%
7.7
1614
111
6.19
80.38%
9
Lennon
8.0%
7.3
1992
98
4.43
60.65%
10
Silva
6.6%
9.4
1561
96
5.53
58.88%
The ever-consistent Juan Mata leads the way on this one, as you probably already know. This is just so you can see who makes up the top 10 more than anything. You might have expected the Magic 5 to be filling the top 5 spots but this isn’t the case, with Cazorla, Gerrard and Hazard joining Magic duo Mata and Michu in there while Magic trio Walcott, Bale and Fellaini only only take up places 6, 7 and 8 in this rankings table.
So why aren’t Cazorla, Gerrard and Hazard in the Magic 5 then? Don’t they deserve to be if they’ve score more points than Walcott, Bale and Fellaini??
Link to original article to Read more »

Gameweek 24 PREVIEW: Time for Wayne to reign again?

Image

There has only been one star in Manchester United’s and in 44.8% of Fantasy Premier League teams’ seasons.

Robin van Persie (£14.1m) has been the main man, the top goalscorer, the top points scorer, the man outshining all the others. He has looked indestructible. He even survived that attack from Ashley Williams at Swansea before Christmas.

The man eclipsed by the rise and rise of Van Persie’s star has been Wayne Rooney (£11.8m), as frequent injuries and frustrations have left him looking enviously at his team’s Dutch master and wondering just how he let a top billing that he used to own slip so easily into the former Arsenal man’s grasp. Just recently though, he’s been making hay whilst Van Persie was away.

Alright, they were in the FA Cup. And okay, he did hopelessly miss a penalty in the West Ham game, but Rooney has found the net in each of United’s last two matches at Old Trafford – matches that Van Persie was rested for – and so should be in a confident mood ahead of the visit of Southampton on Wednesday night.

The forward is itching to impress after scoring just seven Premier League goals this season, and he could just be the key to a strong ending to the season for both United and for your Fantasy team.

As the pressure cranks up, each and every win for United looks more and more important as they seek yet another title. Sir Alex Ferguson could find himself turning to the man who has been there and done it before in a bid to get over the line.

That bid could start on Wednesday.

Elsewhere during this midweek Gameweek – everyone loves a midweek Gameweek don’t they? – there will be tales of cup woe to be shared at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal meet Liverpool.

Supporters of Bradford City and Oldham Athletic can watch that one with smug smiles on their faces, and one man that Liverpool will need to watch closely will be the Gunners forward Olivier Giroud (£7.8m), who could just shunt Theo Walcott (£9.4m) out to the right of midfield again following his excellent recent form.

There were also cup woes for Norwich and QPR at the weekend, and they don’t look like disappearing in the league as the duo host Tottenham and Manchester City respectively. Gareth Bale (£9.8m) and David Silva (£9.4m) look to be the men to watch.

Rafael Benitez takes his Chelsea team to Reading, and in amongst the usual suspects in his Blues side – although there’s no Eden Hazard here of course – it could also be worth looking at the visitors’ defence, particularly the Spanish right-back Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.7m) who has racked up four assists since becoming more of a regular in the Blues’ team in November. Against a Reading outfit who have been known to leak goals at home, he’ll be looking to get forward.

Everton should also be on the front foot in their match against a stuttering West Brom, and many bosses will be hoping that Marouane Fellaini (£7.7m) can return to scoring ways after failing to find the net since December 1st. Meanwhile, Nikica Jelavic (£8.0m) has lost support following just one goal in 12 games.

One man who is more used to hitting the back of the net recently is Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke (£6.5m), and with the Belgian forward providing one of very few rays of light amidst the doom and gloom surrounding his club this season, Villa will be looking to him to fire against a similarly out of form Newcastle United at Villa Park.

He can do just that, and ensure that whilst his star still isn’t as high as Van Persie’s or even Rooney’s, it will at least stay on the rise.

@Mark_Jones86

Premier League: App Preview “Fantasy Football meets Wall Street”

I think if I was to say that the FantasyYIRMA team were slight fans of Fantasy Football, I’d be locked up for blatent lies…we are clearly nuts about #FPL.

So… when a new #FPL related app lands on the scene we tend to sit up and take notice. Over the past few months we’ve watched with anticipation as Football Trader gets ready to launch! This week’s guest post is an interview with Sohail Godall, Co-Founder of Football Trader.

By @ryano83

If you enjoy #FPL then this could be like an extra free transfer when you’ve had a last minute injury!

    heading


FantasyYirma: So tell me about this new Fantasy Football Trading Game app?? There’s been a lot of chat on twitter already about it!

Sohail: We’re launching a new type of Fantasy Football game for the modern fan. Imagine Fantasy Football played on a live stock market, where you buy shares in players live that are constantly changing based on news off the pitch and how they perform on the pitch.

This is basically Football Trader 🙂

2pic

FantasyYirma: Interesting, so it’s a sort of Fantasy Football meets Wall Street? Many FPL fans may not be used to the concept of Real-time trading. What made you base your game on this?

Sohail: Well we heard users tweeting and telling us that sometimes current Fantasy Football can just be a “Game of Luck”. Controversial perhaps, but in the end users always pick the same players who score goals/assist or in a team that keeps clean sheets. It’s not a level playing field and half the players in the league are mostly overlooked. (We blogged about this last week here – http://tinyurl.com/a9z6bd8)

The actual gameplay of Fantasy Football games has not evolved much since it started 20 years ago! The points scoring system is very similar.

Football today is inundated with so much information in the media – live breaking player news, transfer speculation, twitter discussion and people are constantly checking their smartphones. We want to bring this together in a game where you can quickly buy/sell players based on how you view a players worth. You read news about them, watch their performance and make a judgement on how you anticipate what they will do in the next games.

It’s all about investing in players you think will do well where you can grow their value.

3pic

FantasyYirma: So thinking about that and the real-time aspect, people would jump into the app and buy/sell their players as they hear news?

Sohail: Exactly, think of the Eden Hazard incident the other day. Before the game his stock was high, he had started coming into form and scored. His stock was rising, people were starting to buy him. Then the incident and in an instant he’s sent off and banned for 3 games. His stock falls.

 eden

We saw this during our testing this week, his price fell straight after and in our game it would likely fall as people would sell him expecting his price to fall sharply. Those that sell quickly won’t lose out too much, as it’s all about timing. Some might not sell as they think he will come back strong.

It’s all about how you anticipate a player, and every person see this differently 🙂

FantasyYirma: Sounds innovative! I can see the real time aspect appealing to people. So how does the game work? What are the basic rules?

Sohail: I thought you might ask that! See below

rules

FantasyYirma: And for those who have been drawn in on the idea, when’s this all out?

Sohail: It’s been extremely complicated building all this! We are now finally live in a Private Beta testing out bugs on the live market and refining the gameplay. We are open to users wanting to join the Beta and provide feedback (just send us a Tweet at the address below).

Once we get through this, make some changes, we will launch on iPhone and Android by the end of February we hope. Our big launch will be for next season!

FantasyYirma: Many Thanks for your time Sohail, much appreciated and I’m sure there will be FPL fans on the lookout for this! I look forward to my free copy! 😉

ending

See Below for further links on the game, Beta testers are welcome:

www.footballtraderapp.com

blog.footballtraderapp.com 

@Realtime_Sports

Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 2)

Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!

As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.

#FY

 

Part 1 of this series is available here

Mid-Table Sides “FightBack” Analysis

Having looked at the Top 6 teams, it is appropriate to look at the teams which sit outside the top six but which were expected at the beginning of the season to find a mid table berth and have no fear of relegation but no thoughts of getting into Europe.

EPL-Fight-Back-Data-2008-2009-to-Jan-13-Mid-Table

I have written extensively about Newcastle this season and they are a very interesting in terms of the phrase “yo- yo’ on the basis that they are a team that goes up and down the EPL table.

Focusing on their inability to fight back when conceding first should have given some doubt in the ability of Pardew to get Newcastle into the Top 6 again this season.

Pardew was awarded the League Managers Association award for last season which is voted for by fellow professional managers and Sir Alex won it in 2011 and this is a prestigious award. In effect this cemented the 8 year contract that Pardew signed to give him time to deliver the first trophy since they won the fairs Cup in 1969.

My question is do we take at face value that Pardew did an excellent job or do we add raw data to the mix to show that last season Newcastle over achieved and a drop in positions was an expected outcome this season with potential that Newcastle could easily drop out of the EPL in the next few seasons again?

If I advise that Pardew does not have the ability to micro manage players you could rightly counter and say that Newcastle finished 5th last year so obviously he must have the mindset to lead his squad and motivate the players on and off the pitch with a solid team behind him.

I would argue that under Pardew, Newcastle have only won 37% of games and that  he has had success with regard to getting teams from the Championship into the EPL but not been able to consolidate on the progress.

It is also a well known fact that at West Ham, Pardew was given media training to be able to connect with the fans more and I express the thought that how well does he communicate with his own players after the BBC described him as a …”distant animal”. I have watched a number of games this season (mainly recorded) looking at the body language of Pardew and apart from writing notes, I have not seen anything to suggest that he commands the loyalty of the players as in too many games this season, Newcastle have given up as soon as they have conceded first and they are also showing an inability to hold onto leads having won just 50% of the games where they scored first this  season which is not top six form and astonishingly since Pardew joined, Newcastle have not won one game when conceding first and their last win was against West Ham in October 2010. Newcastle conceded an early goal scored by Carlton Cole on 12 minutes to “fightback” and Newcastle dominated most of the game under Hughton who I consider to be far more capable as a Manager then Pardew.

Football blogging is at a stage where if it does not fit the model then it must be a random event such as playing snakes and ladders which has zero skill value but I think this is a dangerous route to take as one of the biggest academic arguments is over sample size but in football past performance is not an indicator of future performance although there is no reason to think that Newcastle will become a “fightback” team in the near future.

We are only limited by our interpretation of the data presented. When Spurs beat Wigan 9-1 we can clearly see that this is a random event as there was not expectation at Half Time that Wigan would concede eight second half goals. Newcastle coming 5th last season cannot be explained as a random event but can show the limitations of the understanding of data as we are now in a situation where Pardew is now publicly blaming the players(survival analysis) when he is the one who should be blamed.

Compare this to Sunderland conceding first exactly 17 times over the previous four completed seasons. Is this consistent behaviour random or explained?

By   @JonnyGrossmark

Premier League: Mid-Season Review (Part 2)

Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!

FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Midseason Review PART 2 and will be updating the site throughout the week as part of an ongoing mini-series.

Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk

If you would like to submit a guest post for the site, contact Ryan at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com

Midseason Team Analysis – MIDTABLE

SuperGrover is back with the 2nd part of his midseason review and verdict of the Premier League teams, this  time the six teams that currently reside midtable. If you missed it earlier in the week do check out his review of the the TOP SIX here.  Enjoy!

WBA

A fortunate club perhaps, as the underlying statistics and goal differential do not support their point total.  In attack, the Baggies are below average across the board statistically, with fewer shots and shots on target than most.  Defensively, it’s much the same story.  More disconcerting is the recent form which has provided West Brom with just 7 points over 9 fixtures, with the underlying numbers substantiating that record.

Fun Fact: Romelu Lukaku averages a goal about every 112 minutes, just 2 minutes off Robin Van Persie’s pace.  The on loan Belgian has scored 7 goals in his last 8 starts.

Prediction:  West Brom continue to slide down the league, eventually landing firmly mid-table.  Romelu Lukaku remains an enigma, producing splendidly when on the pitch.  Fantasy managers everywhere look on in disdain.

LFC

Former kings and current reality show darlings, Liverpool have experienced an up-and-down first season under Brendan Rodgers.  Statistically, the club looks elite, every bit worthy of challenging for a UCL position.  On the pitch this excellence has manifested itself at times.  For example, for the majority of the home game against United Liverpool were superb, especially considering Shelvey was sent off  very early in the game.

They were better than City at home but succumbed to a Skrtel error.  They were the better team in the second halves against Chelsea, against Tottenham and in the return fixture with United  but only after going down early in each.  Alternatively, the Reds have suffered some ignominious defeats.  West Bromwich beat them handily in the second half on opening day.  Christian Benteke went crazy at Anfield and Stoke somehow scored three against what had been an elite defense.  As I mentioned, it’s been up and down.

Fun Fact: Luis Suarez has been involved (scored or assisted) in 62.5% of goals scored while on the pitch, including assists for Baines’ own goal and the penalty won at Stoke.

Prediction:  Liverpool continue to play well and establish themselves as a top 5 club heading into next season.  Sturridge helps offensively and the Reds challenge Everton and Arsenal for a fifth up until the final few game weeks.

SWA

Miguel Perez Cuesta, a.k.a Michu, the transfer of the season.  The lanky Spaniard has almost single-handedly rescued an attack that has been somewhat void of options without him.  Defensively, the Swans started strong but seemed to succumb to injury and possibly fatigue, as the late fall saw a significant downturn in defensive performance.  That has picked up a bit recently, perhaps due to a more pragmatic approach from Laudrup against equivalent or superior opponents, but Swansea remain a below average  club defensively.

Fun Fact:  Swansea have scored just twice off set plays, ranked last in the league.  Not surprisingly, their single goal from a defender is also tied for last in the league.

Prediction:  Michu and a solid midfield make Swansea a somewhat difficult match up, especially on the road.  A solid top ten finish ends a great first year under Laudrup.

STK

Bullies.  Thugs.  Rugby players.  The Potters have heard this all before and don’t care, but they do do deserve their reputation as a big, physical group.  Their underlying statistics tell the tale of a well formed, solid, damn near impenetrable backline with little offensive interest.  That sums up Stoke under Pulis.  Whatever the case, it’s good enough to keep them mid table.

Fun Fact:  Stoke have blocked 32% of their opponents’ shots, highest in the league.  Only one other team has blocked more than 29% (Sunderland).  This illustrates how well they maintain order and numbers in their backline.

Prediction:  Nothing sexy about Pulis’ style, but the results will continue to be there.  A return of Marc Wilson could make Stoke’s defense even better through the remainder of the season.

WHU

The most successful of the promoted clubs thus far, the Hammers currently mark the beginning of the bottom of the table.  West Ham have performed about as expected based upon their underlying statistics, getting a bit unlucky on shot accuracy but a bit lucky on shot conversion.  In the end, you have a below average attack with about an average defense, combining to form a pretty mediocre club that should be good enough to stay well clear of relegation.

Fun Fact:  Andy Carroll has scored 1 goal on 25 shots this season.  Last season, he scored 4 goals on 88 shots.  His 5 goals in 113 shots are 9 goals fewer than Daniel Sturridge has scored in his last 109 shots.

Prediction:  The return of Andy Carroll does nothing to improve the Hammers attack.  Home games remain winnable, but this is a perfectly cromulent football club.

NFC

It looked ugly early for Norwich City early on, but their underlying statistics were never as bad as the table indicated.  Paul Lambert’s club have always shown some statistical upside, but finally shored up the defense to allow for the real improvement demonstrated on the pitch.  Norwich remain a below average club on both sides of the ball, but are strong enough all round to be significantly better than bottom table teams such as Wigan and Reading.

Fun Fact:  The Canaries have scored half of their  goals from  set plays with Bassong, Snodgrass and Martin all contributing on more than one occasion.

Prediction:  The talent is there to maybe challenge for 10th.  If not, expect status quo as the nightmares of late Summer are long forgotten.

Premier League: January Transfer Window on its hinges…

The team behind @FourFourTweet are not a bad lot at all!!

Many thanks to @jonnywarburton for submitting this post on the January Transfer Window. Great article. Drop a comment below for your thoughts on the current window- who do you want your team to sign… and who do you think they actually will ?? (If any!)

January transfer window takes shape as clubs start to splash the cash.

Premier League sides scour the market in an attempt to bolster squads ahead of the deadline day.

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With less than a week to go until the January transfer window slams shut, Premier League sides are scrambling around in hope of acquiring some of the hottest properties on the continent. Often transfer values vary from the abnormal to the crazy however some managers have found value for money in the hope of becoming more competitive.

The first significant piece of business involved Daniel Sturridge, a highly rated forward whose career had stagnated at Chelsea. The £12millon transfer to Liverpool has proven to be the most expensive transfer fee up to now. The highly rated star has seen valuable playing time early on in his Liverpool career to help relinquish the pressures on Luis Suarez in providing an attacking threat.

Outgoing from Liverpool has seen Joe Cole return home to West Ham United on a free transfer. After a stint in Ligue 1 last season, Cole had failed to make a real positive impact at Anfield which led to Cole becoming available for transfer. The second spell at West Ham has seemed to reignite his play with two clever assists against Manachester United in the F.A Cup Third Round.

With the transfer of Sturridge to Liverpool, Chelsea were in the market for a striker to compete with out of sorts Fernando Torres. Demba Ba was the chosen man seemingly inevitable that he would leave during the window from Newcastle United due to the £7.5million release clause lying in his contract. The strong forward joined the European champions early in the window and seems to be enjoying his time there by providing two goals on his debut.

The most active club so far in the transfer window has been Newcastle United who have brought in four French players to add to their current crop of stars. Mathieu Debuchy, Yoan Gouffran, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa and Massadio Haidara have been added to the squad for a little over £15million. The quartet are joining the side hovering above the relegation zone and the Tynesiders will be hoping the signings will help boost the clubs fortunes.

Bottom of the pile QPR added Marseille forward Loic Remy for £8million in an attempt to fire them away from the relegation zone come may. The striker destined for St James Park opted to move to London after significant talks with Tony Fernandes and Harry Redknapp. The player showed his eye for goal through a debut strike away at West Ham United. QPR will be hoping to find more success in the market over the next couple of days.

Manchester United announced the £15million signing of England international Wilfried Zaha from promotion hopefuls Crystal Palace. The winger will return to the London side for the rest of the campaign in a bid to promote his current side. The promising attacker will provide stiff competition with the current crop of wingers at Old Trafford as he makes the step up to the Premier League at the start of next season.

Expect plenty of deadline day deals as this January transfer window finally takes shape. Who will overspend and who won’t spend at all, are the questions many football fans are asking as they hope their club make the signings necessary to improve their fortunes.

By @jonnywarburton

Fantasy Premier League: FY Mini-league still open-Prize to be won!

Still time to join the FantasyYirma mini-league!!

You can still join the #FantasyYirma mini-league – be warned the competition is tough! The FantasyYirma mini-league is one of the TOP RANKED  in the overall game! Click the link below to Join.

The Official FantasyYirma League is FREE  TO PLAY and has a £50 cash prize for the winner.

Click to Join. http://fantasy.premierleague.com/my-leagues/15005/join/?autojoin-code=44397-15005

The prize money is provided by the FY Admin team member with the lowest total score at the end of the season…

To take £50 off your mate in a bet is fun- to make him sponsor the league for an entire season …is funnier.