Monthly Archives: January 2013
Gameweek 25 preview: Gareth Bale to sting The Hawthorns?
The closure of the January transfer window may excite manic Sky Sports News presenters, the Twitter rumour-mongers and Harry Redknapp, but Fantasy bosses are often better off just sticking to what they know.
At this point of the season – pretty much exactly two-thirds of the way through – you’ll know who you can rely on in your team, who you’ll be keeping an eye on bringing in and who you desperately need to get rid of. New arrivals into the division shouldn’t alter that.
Of course there are those new players who can arrive into the Premier League and immediately take it by storm – Papiss Cisse last season anyone? – but the bedding in period often needed by foreign imports makes adding any deadline day signing to your team a risk. At least this weekend anyway.
No, it would be better to go with the tried and tested ahead of an intriguing set of games, and there aren’t many players in the division this season who have proved their worth more than Tottenham’s Gareth Bale (£9.8m).
The Welshman’s fine solo goal at Carrow Road on Wednesday night was a 10th Premier League strike of the season, and with eight of those 10 coming in matches away from White Hart Lane – in which he can make more use of the space afforded to him – then the winger will be the man to watch when Spurs visit West Brom on Sunday afternoon.
The Baggies have only won two of their last 11 in the league, and so whilst you don’t want Bale running at you at the best of times it is likely to be especially tough for Steve Clarke’s men to cope with the confidence of the winger here. Bale could score big.
Elsewhere, the headline match of the weekend is probably the last one, as Manchester City welcome Liverpool in a contest which the hosts will need to win after dropping points at QPR last time out.
Sergio Aguero (£10.9m) returned to the team there and should definitely be considered here, but even though Liverpool are facing a tough game the eagle-eyed Fantasy bosses will have noted that they have a Double Gameweek coming up next time around which brings home matches against West Brom and Swansea. Luis Suarez (£10.5m) is only going to see his price go up. More on him next week…
Reading’s Adam Le Fondre (£4.7m) might be a slightly less talked about forward than Suarez, but he proved more than his worth with the two late goals which earned a point against Chelsea in midweek, and at home to Sunderland he’ll be backed by many to find the net again. If you need a cheap forward to supplement your big boys then there are few better options at the moment.
Defensively, the scope for clean sheets doesn’t look all too great this weekend, but although QPR’s match at home to fellow strugglers Norwich will be full of new Rangers players introducing themselves to one another, it might just see the home side keep it tight at the back.
After the 3-0 loss at home to Liverpool before the turn of the year, Redknapp’s boys have kept back-to-back clean sheets at Loftus Road against opposition of the calibre of Tottenham and Manchester City, as well as shutting out Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
The Canaries should offer little to be worried about then, and after playing 90 minutes in each of QPR’s last four games the on-loan Manchester United defender Fabio da Silva (£4.2m) could just be worth considering if you need to add a cheap defender to make room elsewhere.
At the other end of the scale Leighton Baines (£7.5m) is the game’s most expensive defender and he’ll be looking to follow-up his brace against West Brom when Everton entertain Aston Villa, but the Blues have only kept two clean sheets at home all season and so Christian Benteke (£6.5m) shouldn’t be discounted for the visitors.
Finally and not too far away at Wigan, the hosts will hope that the increasingly effective Franco di Santo (£5.3m) impresses as they host Southampton on Saturday.
That’s if no-one else has signed him by then of course…
Fantasy Premier League GW24: Nothing but Bonus Points!!
| 29 Jan 19:45 | Aston Villa | ![]() |
1 – 2 | ![]() |
Newcastle |
| 29 Jan 19:45 | QPR | ![]() |
0 – 0 | ![]() |
Man City |
| 29 Jan 19:45 | Stoke City | ![]() |
2 – 2 | ![]() |
Wigan |
| 29 Jan 19:45 | Sunderland | ![]() |
0 – 0 | ![]() |
Swansea |
| 30 Jan 19:45 | Arsenal | ![]() |
2 – 2 | ![]() |
Liverpool |
| 30 Jan 19:45 | Everton | ![]() |
2 – 1 | ![]() |
West Brom |
| 30 Jan 19:45 | Norwich | ![]() |
1 – 1 | ![]() |
Tottenham |
| 30 Jan 20:00 | Fulham | ![]() |
3 – 1 | ![]() |
West Ham |
| 30 Jan 20:00 | Man Utd | ![]() |
2 – 1 | ![]() |
Southampton |
| 30 Jan 20:00 | Reading | ![]() |
2 – 2 | ![]() |
Chelsea |
Premier League: Fightback Statistics (Part 3)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
Part 1 of this series is available here
Part 2 of this series is available here
Relegation Threatened Teams “FightBack” Analysis
Looking at the relegation battle we see that Norwich have had an excellent season as they have consolidated on last season. I wonder if they will consolidate further next season or will they be seen to have over achieved this season.
The limitation of football models is that last season predictive models around the country gave Wigan a 81% probability of going down but they stayed up. I have not read any explanation of how they raised their game for the last few months against tough and motivated teams.
I believe that Reading (1.2) and QPR(1.58) will be relegated but the third relegation spot will be contested between Wigan (2.92), Southampton (2.3) and Aston Villa (2.90) and it could be a battle till the final whistle of the last game of the season. I personally would have Wigan as my choice as I cannot explain how they avoided relegation last season and nothing to indicate that they can avoid the trap door again.
In conclusion I leave with the thought that apart from shot strength, all the other data is available, but the problem is interpretation of the data as Newcastle season ticket holders may find they will be looking up road maps of Blackpool in the not too distant future. As a a writer of football articles I now realise that quoting figures that people cannot quantify does not help to broaden the appeal of raw data so in this article I have attempted a more user friendly approach and I hope it has worked.
Lastly here are a few graphs to show how consistently teams have faired in terms of their positions in the Premier League since 2008/09:
by @JonnyGrossmark
Premier League : Mid-Season Review (Part 3)
Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!
FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Mid-Season Review PART 3 and the conclusion to his ongoing mini-series.
Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk
If you would like to submit a guest post for the site, contact Ryan at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com
Midseason Team Analysis – The Bottom Half
Prediction: Jol struggles to find offensive identity all season. The Berbatov honeymoon ends as his work rate becomes a real problem while Fulham fights relegation. In the end, they manage to stave off relegation but aren’t completely comfortable until game week 37.
Fun Fact: Steven Fletcher scored 5 goals on his first 5 shots on target this season. He has scored 3 in his last 13.
Prediction: Martin O’Neil’s tactical changes results in more goals on both sides, but allows Sunderland to remain in the premier league another season.
I have to admit, I enjoy Rickie Lambert. He’s not the most gifted player and will never be more than he is, but he understands the game and he understands how to score. I have been rooting for the Saints and Lambert ever since locking onto the striker as a preseason budget option. I couldn’t be more pleased with the results.
It was presumed that Southampton started the season poorly, but much of that was due to a difficult run of fixtures that saw defeats to Man City, Man United, Arsenal and Everton in the first 6 games. Since then, Southampton are 4-7-5, accumulating 20 points in just 16 weeks. Interestingly, the underlying statistics indicated they weren’t as bad as thought all along. Further, the introduction of Jack Cork in week 11 seemed to correspond to a change in tactics. The defense was much more organized and the attack more cautious, taking chances when available but not stringing out to do so. Luke Shaw’s emergence and a more settled central pairing also helped. The results can be seen in the six week form that shows the Saints as a poor attack but stingy defensively.
Fun Fact: Rickie Lambert has created the 2nd most chances among all forwards with 45.
Prediction: The recent form is no fluke and the Saints stay clear of relegation. Rickie Lambert scores 15 goals and Luke Shaw is hailed as the next Garreth Bale.
Fun Fact: Newcastle’s midfielders have taken 118 shots, but only 34 in the box. By comparison, Liverpool’s mids have 164 but 83 in the box.
Prediction: Newcastle improve somewhat as injuries subside, but problems remain. The relegation fight goes until the very last few games of the season with a goal here or there being the difference.
Prediction: The fixtures ease up a bit, but Wigan’s record improves little. A clear relegation candidate heading into the last fortnight of the season.
Aston Villa are not a good team. The results on the field have been poor and the underlying statistics not much better. They have struggled to generate and stop shots and the resulting goals conceded should be expected.
The caveat is that Villa’s goal differential is an aberration to some extent. While they have been poor, they haven’t been 6 goals worse than everyone else. Further, unlike some other bottom dwellers they have registered a few points against some of the better teams in the league, winning at Anfield, drawing with Arsenal and taking 4 points from their meetings with Swansea. Nonetheless, this is a bad team that needs to improve quickly or face relegation.
Fun Fact: Christian Benteke has scored or assisted on 76.9% of all Villa’s goals this season, easily the highest of all players with at least 1000 minutes played.
Prediction: Benteke continues to dominate, but Villa don’t have enough to back him up. Without a turn around, Villa get demoted.
Reading are the worst team in the league and it’s not all that close. Offensively, Reading have been among a group of poor offensive teams at the bottom of the table, scoring occasionally but never generating an consistent attack. Defensively, Reading are atrocious, allowing more shots, shots in the box, shots on target, and goals than any other team in the league. They have been poor, and lucky to have the points they do. This is a team with little upside and little chance of finishing out of the relegation zone.
Fun Fact: Pavel Pogrebnyak has scored on 27.8% of all shots, 7% better than Mr. Van Persie himself. Unfortunately, the Russian has just 18 shots all season.
Prediction: Reading’s fate is sealed before the month of May.
Harry’s next big thing still reside at the bottom of the table 5 points away from safety. It seems assured the Rangers will be demoted, right? Not so fast.
Stoke City: Maintaining the status quo
If you weren’t aware of just who was where in the Premier League table ahead of the midweek matches, it wouldn’t really surprise you to know that Stoke City are 10th.
They’ve pretty much always been there ever since their promotion from the Championship in 2008, bar a 3-1 defeat at Bolton in their first ever Premier League match which saw one attention-seeking bookmaker immediately pay out on the team to be relegated.
In the following years, such a move has been shown to be even more ridiculous than it looked back then.
Under manager Tony Pulis, Stoke have never been in relegation trouble at the end of any of their four completed Premier League seasons – instead focusing on an FA Cup final at the end of one of them and always proving to be one of the least appealing fixtures for any top flight team.
A lot of the attention is of course focused on the direct way that Stoke play, but Pulis, his players and the club’s fans won’t apologise for that. It is overblown anyway, and quite frankly why should they say sorry?
All teams should look to play to their strengths, and whilst the majority see their strengths change over time with the appointments of different managers and the signings of new players, Stoke’s style remains the same. Their strength is their strength.
They’ve been in the top flight for long enough now for people to look to combat it too, but with players such as Robert Huth, Ryan Shawcross, Steven Nzonzi and recently Kenwyne Jones all impressing this season, once again they’ll be nowhere near the drop zone come the end of the campaign. Flying in their face of their reputation, tidy, technical players such as Matthew Etherington and Michael Kightly have done well too.
Pulis has got all of his men to give every ounce of sweat for the club’s cause.
It may be the status quo that Stoke are where they are in the league, but where they are is surely the best position that a club of their size, infrastructure and value can be in. If that doesn’t deserve praise then what does?
It is easy for the neutrals to love Swansea – the opponents who beat Stoke 3-1 in their last Premier League match – and indeed to appreciate the football often played by Wigan – who the Potters face at the Britannia Stadium on Tuesday night – but whilst those two have survived in the top division by doing things their own way, Stoke’s similar story has been overlooked somewhat, with the focus instead on just how they’ve gone about their stay in the division.
Maybe they are victims of their own success.
Stoke have never really been in relegation trouble and so as such it is not seen as a great achievement when they do survive in the division, as they will do this season and in all likelihood for seasons to come.
They have become one of the constants of the Premier League, with their name now known continent-wide thanks to a run in the Europa League last season, another curiously under-celebrated feat that perhaps deserved a little more attention. Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle line up in the knockout stages of the tournament next month, and you can bet that more people will be talking about them.
They and you might not like Stoke’s approach to the game but surely it should be respected?
They haven’t become top division mainstays by accident. It has taken a lot of hard work to get them where they are.
And that is right in the middle of the Premier League, where they are likely to stick around for quite a while yet.
The Lamb’s Wild(card)
As a Derby County fan, @pedro_lamb‘s only involvement with the Premier League is through the Fantasy Premier League game.
An avid FPL player, The Lamb’s imaginatively –titled team Lamb County have managed to claw themselves up to 32,964th in the overall game this season, as well as 149th in Yirma and an impressive third in the Yirma head-to-head league.
With the end of January approaching, The Lamb settled down to make a decision that he knew would make or break his season, his bank balance and his mood until August. It was Wildcard time.
Here are The Lamb’s thoughts – and only HIS thoughts – as he takes on every Fantasy manager’s biggest challenge.
Warning: the following is not for the faint-hearted:
Who needs goalkeepers anyway?
Well it’s January and my head hurts, as I cut, bring in, drop, select, then re-drop, then re-select, finally drop him and then keep the same player I had to start off with……!!! Yep, it’s the pain of playing your January transfer Wildcard.
So I think I have finally decided on my team. One, because the deadline is nearly here, and most importantly two, if I spend any more time on the website I think my boss may sack me.
I have gone for a very radical move. Very radical.
Prepare yourselves…
My team doesn’t have a first choice keeper… Or in fact a second choice keeper…
I have selected two keepers who have more chance of being elected Prime Minister of Greenland than playing for their teams.
If they do play, I would be more than happy to drop them to have the current Prime Minister of Greenland Kuupik Kleist as my goalkeeper.
This bold – some would say visionary – idea has freed up enough funds to have both Mata and Bale in my team.
The more I think about it, not having a keeper, is it such a bad idea? And the answer is No, because even this season’s best scoring keeper Begovic, is averaging less than 4 points a game, both Mata and Bale are over 5 and over 38 Gameweeks, that is an additional 76 points, need I say any more? *Please don’t – Ed.*
The Lamb shoots and scores with another genius Fantasy Football idea. All hail the Lamb. The days of making Lucas Leiva captain and selecting the potentially brilliant Tom Huddlestone are behind me. This one’s a winner.
—————-
Time for a few more Wildcard thoughts.
I have waited as long as possible in case the transfer windows kicks off in a big way, sadly it hasn’t so I won’t be bringing in some of the young guns from the Championship that have been on every transfer gossip page throughout January.
So it looks like Will Hughes won’t be the big gamble for my team, he would have been cheap and made a lot of points, he could be next years must have cheap player, the new Charlie Adam in fantasy football terms!!! You heard it here first folks. *giggles*
The biggest problem with this window has been the unknown factor. Which of the January signings will actually get decent time on the pitch?
Ba is a prime example. He’s cheap and can score, but realistically are Chelsea going to keep Torres and his £50 million price tag on the bench? I can’t see it and I think he is destined to just make weekly cameo appearances.
Then there is Sturridge, but I am sorry you can’t overlook Suarez, he just too good at the minute, and again I can’t see Sturridge playing every game.
As for City, the main problem is ‘will he won’t he?’ It’s everybody’s favourite Italian again.
If Mario Balotelli goes then maybe I will invest in Aguero, but at the moment two games could go by and he’ll only get a few minutes on the pitch.
Also the inconsistent nature of Arsenal means selecting any of their players is going to be a very irritating. Some weeks they will be brilliant and other weeks they bring a whole new meaning to the word awful.
Despite this I suggest picking Theo Walcott. Now his future has been sorted I think this may settle him and the whole squad down, so maybe that famous Arsenal consistency might just return.
———-
No goalkeepers were harmed in the giving of this advice.
Fantasy Football: Tips out for Yirma! GW24
If @Pedro_Lamb wins his 100/1 correct score bet @ryano83 and @mark_jones86 may as well concede… he wont though so it’s ok….I hope…
Name this fish…
GAMEWEEK 24
Here within the Fantasy Yirma administration team, we like to pretend we have money. With that in mind we have devised a FY Tipster selection competition.
The loser from the Admin team at the end of the season will pay the £50 prize fund for the mini league!!
Here’s the current standings after Gameweek 23:
| FY Tipster | GW23 Spend | GW23 Return | Total Spend | Total Return | Difference |
| @pedro_lamb | £30 | £87.50 | £690 | £733.28 | £43.28 |
| @mark_jones86 | £30 | £0 | £690 | £507.19 | – £182.81 |
| @ryano83 | £30 | £33 | £690 | £803.66 | + £113.66 |
Rules
Each player must place three £10 bets (Monopoly) per gameweek. (SINGLES ONLY/ PL Only)
The bet can be on any individual result/market/outcome with the only proviso being that you must stipulate the odds at time of selection submission and it must be from the same odds provider.
In practice this means your three £10 bets can be across three fixtures or three markets within one match.
Get your tips out for Yirma!!!
Gameweek 24 tips:
£10 Correct Score QPR 2 -5 Man City 100/1
£10 Newcastle Win 9/5
£10 Swansea Win 2/1
£10 Villa v Newcastle 0-0 17/2
£10 Norwich Win 10/3
£10 Liverpool win 11/5
£10 Stoke to win (less than 2.5 goals in the game) 10/3
£10 West Ham win 5/2
£10 Everton Draw 14/5
Fantasy Football: The “must have” Midfielders !
There is a wealth of information out there now related to Fantasy Football. The good news is that so much of it is well worth a read when considering changes for your #FPL squad. This article is no exception, a fantastic guest post from @fpl_mentor on the Midfielders your team needs to be thinking of! The link at the bottom will take you to the original article. Highly recommended.
As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.
Must Have FPL Players – Midfielders
|
Rank
|
Player
name
|
% of teams
owned by
|
Current
price
|
Minutes played
|
Total points
|
Points per 90
minutes played
|
Value for
money
|
|
1
|
Mata
|
27.0%
|
10.0
|
1589
|
137
|
7.76
|
77.60%
|
|
2
|
Michu
|
49.0%
|
8.4
|
1878
|
130
|
6.23
|
74.17%
|
|
3
|
Cazorla
|
19.0%
|
9.6
|
2025
|
129
|
5.73
|
59.72%
|
|
4
|
Gerrard
|
7.0%
|
9.5
|
2070
|
128
|
5.57
|
58.58%
|
|
5
|
Hazard
|
21.6%
|
9.4
|
1789
|
127
|
6.39
|
67.97%
|
|
6
|
Walcott
|
21.7%
|
9.4
|
1226
|
121
|
8.88
|
94.50%
|
|
7
|
Bale
|
16.8%
|
9.8
|
1661
|
118
|
6.39
|
65.24%
|
|
8
|
Fellaini
|
34.2%
|
7.7
|
1614
|
111
|
6.19
|
80.38%
|
|
9
|
Lennon
|
8.0%
|
7.3
|
1992
|
98
|
4.43
|
60.65%
|
|
10
|
Silva
|
6.6%
|
9.4
|
1561
|
96
|
5.53
|
58.88%
|
Gameweek 24 PREVIEW: Time for Wayne to reign again?
There has only been one star in Manchester United’s and in 44.8% of Fantasy Premier League teams’ seasons.
Robin van Persie (£14.1m) has been the main man, the top goalscorer, the top points scorer, the man outshining all the others. He has looked indestructible. He even survived that attack from Ashley Williams at Swansea before Christmas.
The man eclipsed by the rise and rise of Van Persie’s star has been Wayne Rooney (£11.8m), as frequent injuries and frustrations have left him looking enviously at his team’s Dutch master and wondering just how he let a top billing that he used to own slip so easily into the former Arsenal man’s grasp. Just recently though, he’s been making hay whilst Van Persie was away.
Alright, they were in the FA Cup. And okay, he did hopelessly miss a penalty in the West Ham game, but Rooney has found the net in each of United’s last two matches at Old Trafford – matches that Van Persie was rested for – and so should be in a confident mood ahead of the visit of Southampton on Wednesday night.
The forward is itching to impress after scoring just seven Premier League goals this season, and he could just be the key to a strong ending to the season for both United and for your Fantasy team.
As the pressure cranks up, each and every win for United looks more and more important as they seek yet another title. Sir Alex Ferguson could find himself turning to the man who has been there and done it before in a bid to get over the line.
That bid could start on Wednesday.
Elsewhere during this midweek Gameweek – everyone loves a midweek Gameweek don’t they? – there will be tales of cup woe to be shared at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal meet Liverpool.
Supporters of Bradford City and Oldham Athletic can watch that one with smug smiles on their faces, and one man that Liverpool will need to watch closely will be the Gunners forward Olivier Giroud (£7.8m), who could just shunt Theo Walcott (£9.4m) out to the right of midfield again following his excellent recent form.
There were also cup woes for Norwich and QPR at the weekend, and they don’t look like disappearing in the league as the duo host Tottenham and Manchester City respectively. Gareth Bale (£9.8m) and David Silva (£9.4m) look to be the men to watch.
Rafael Benitez takes his Chelsea team to Reading, and in amongst the usual suspects in his Blues side – although there’s no Eden Hazard here of course – it could also be worth looking at the visitors’ defence, particularly the Spanish right-back Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.7m) who has racked up four assists since becoming more of a regular in the Blues’ team in November. Against a Reading outfit who have been known to leak goals at home, he’ll be looking to get forward.
Everton should also be on the front foot in their match against a stuttering West Brom, and many bosses will be hoping that Marouane Fellaini (£7.7m) can return to scoring ways after failing to find the net since December 1st. Meanwhile, Nikica Jelavic (£8.0m) has lost support following just one goal in 12 games.
One man who is more used to hitting the back of the net recently is Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke (£6.5m), and with the Belgian forward providing one of very few rays of light amidst the doom and gloom surrounding his club this season, Villa will be looking to him to fire against a similarly out of form Newcastle United at Villa Park.
He can do just that, and ensure that whilst his star still isn’t as high as Van Persie’s or even Rooney’s, it will at least stay on the rise.


















































