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PREMIER LEAGUE RETURNS IN 40 DAYS!!
With the FantasyYIRMA team still enjoying their summer hiatus we are delighted to feature FPL superfan Walt (@EPLFanForLife) on the site again.
(NOTE: #FY admin @Pedro_Lamb was last seen heading into what he thought was a table tennis sports bar in Bangkok.. if found please provide with return directions to Burton, UK.)
If you would like to submit a guest post to feature on FantasyYIRMA.com please email Ryan on FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com.
PREMIER LEAGUE RETURNS IN 40 DAYS!!
Mid-Summer FPL Status Report
It’s agonizing, right? We’re smack dab in the middle of the off-season, the official #FPL site has gone dark, the transfer window is officially open for business, and the only certainty is that there are roughly 2.5 million people sitting on the edge of their seats with all questions and no answers.
After sitting back and thinking for a moment, there are actually some things we do know, but they too are really only things we know about the past and the present; not the future. These things too, as they relate to the FPL season to come, also lead directly to one place; more questions.
When it all boils down to it, there are three distinct variables that connect last season’s FPL season with the season we all now anticipate. They are:
1) What happened last season
2) What has happened since the season ended
3) What is going to happen between today and August 17
What Happened Last Year
Wouldn’t it be great if last season’s performance was a direct indicator of how players would perform this year? I have no statistics to correlate one season’s performance to the next, but it’s only natural to look to the Van Persie’s and the Michu’s and the Bale’s and the Lambert’s and the Gerrard’s and the Mata’s and the Jaaskelainen’s – Jasskelainen!?!? – to pay rich dividends this time around as well. But what about the guys who came on strong at the end of last season? What about Coutinho and Sturridge and Kagawa and Lukaku? Will the strong end to the season carry forward through the long summer and into the first few fixtures of the season to come?
Although it’s easy to assume that that is the case, things have definitely changed; But just how much? Enough to make last season’s statistics a mistaken indicator of what’s to come? New managers, new players coming and going, World Cup qualifiers, Confederations Cup, pre-season tours, time off on holiday, stress surrounding potential contract extensions or transfer rumours. All of these things affect a player’s outlook, attitude, and ability to gel with a new squad or manager. Some players are affected positively and some players are affected negatively.
How much will last year’s performance influence the 15 guys you select to start your 2013-2014 FPL season with? Many FPL managers will struggle with this thought over the next 40 days, and I will be right there with you.
What’s Happened Since the Season Ended
For all intents and purposes, the 2012-2013 English Premier League season ended quietly. Manchester United had long ago wrapped up their title and the bottom of the table was all but sorted. May 19, 2013 seems like forever ago.
Since then, 5 teams have undergone managerial changes – with 4 of them being in the top 6 sides. That leaves Arsene Wenger and Andre Villas-Boas as the only two managers in the top 6 to be leading their sides into the next campaign. Everyone else – Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Everton – all have managerial transitions to endure and the inevitable acclimitization period that such a change inherently brings with it. Make no mistake about it, these changes will impact these clubs as the new season gets underway. Don’t forget DiCanio and Sunderland either – he has caused quite a stir both inside and outside the club with his sometimes unorthodox approach to managing professional football players.
In addition to the managerial changes and full-scale club transitions that they involve, there have been 101 confirmed transfers since the season ended on May 19. Of those 101 confirmed transfers, 43 have involved players moving into the EPL from a different league, 51 have involved players leaving the EPL, and 7 have involved players being transferred from one EPL team to another. Keep in mind that the large majority of these 101 confirmed transfers have been confirmed during the past 6 days!
Notable transfers that may affect your FPL outlook as we make our way through the summer include:
- Carroll from Liverpool to West Ham
- Mignolet from Sunderland to Liverpool
- Sanogo to Arsenal
- Ratt to West Ham
- Figueroa to Hull City
- van Wolfswinkel to Norwich
- Stekelenburg to Fulham
- Navas to Manchester City
- Fernandinho to Manchester City
- Schurrle to Chelsea
- Amat to Swansea
- Kolo Toure from Manchester City to Liverpool
- McGregor to Hull City
- Mannone from Arsenal to Sunderland
- Shelvey from Liverpool to Swansea
- Anelka to West Brom
- Van Ginkel to Chelsea
- Paulinho to Tottenham
Again we’re left with more questions than answers.
Which Carroll will show up for West Ham this season, having finally settled somewhere he feels wanted? Will Mannone start for Sunderland? How will Schurrle and Van Ginkel fit in at Chelsea? Will Fulham’s defense improve and make Stekelenburg a viable FPL option in goal?
How will Fernandinho and Navas slot in at City and where does that leave Dzeko, who conceivably would benefit greatly from Navas’ ability to jet down the wing and lob crosses into the big man week after week? How will Shelvey’s move affect last year’s Newcomer of the Year, Mr. Michu, and his position on the pitch? What does Paulinho’s move mean for Tottenham’s midfield, specifically Sigurdsson, who was used sparingly following a pre-season full of significant hype following the arm-wrestling match between Rodgers and Villas-Boas?
How will Moyes respond to the unenviable scrutiny of following the most celebrated manager in the history of the English top division? How will the players respond? How will Martinez keep Everton’s momentum going with the 3-4-3 formation he seems intent on installing (Seamus Coleman anyone?) How will the circus act that was Chelsea fan’s relationship with their manager play out this year, now that the Chosen One has returned to the team he “has always loved”? Will Pellegrini bring stability to the clubhouse of millionaires that make up the Manchester City squad? What will happen to the poor Sunderland souls who are caught with any variation of sugar, natural form or not, pulsing through their systems following DiCanio’s institution of modernly bizarre team rules?
How will new boys Cardiff City, Crystal Palace and Hull City fare? Are they worth investing in at any position?
It’s only July 8. There are 40 days left until the season begins on August 17. Given the questions raised by the moves made to date and the changes that will have each of our heads spinning, there is still so much more to come that may completely change our approach to the new FPL season.
What Will Happen Between Now and August 17
The greatest league of the most popular sport in the world is never short of excitement. With no games being played there is really only one thing to keep the thousands of journalists whose careers revolve around the Premier League in business; transfer rumors. Log onto Twitter for 30 seconds and you’re bound to run across a handful or a dozen of them. It’s what keeps the EPL world spinning on its axis between May and August. And the rumors are flying fast and furious.
The Thiago Alcantara move to Manchester United has been “confirmed” multiple times since shortly before he led Spain to the UEFA Under-21 European Championships earlier this summer. If that move ever materializes, coupled with Moyes’ insistence that Rooney is going to stay at ManU this season, where does that leave those of us convinced that Kagawa finally seemed like he was beginning to settle in as a long-awaited and much-needed consistent midfield Manchester United FPL option as the season unfolded?
Will the John Ruddy rumored move to Chelsea materialize? Where will that leave Norwich? What in the world is going to happen with Suarez? Will the Higuain deal to Arsenal finally go through, and which Gonzalo will show up if it does?
And these are only the rumors we know about now! Many more will come, and unfortunately for those of us who are unsettled by this fact, the transfer window will stay open right up until gw3 of the coming season. I hate that!
So for now, there is a lot that we know, a lot that we don’t know, and a lot that we don’t yet know we don’t know. The next 6 weeks are going to be a roller coaster; a roller coaster that many of us secretly enjoy because it includes the final pieces of the puzzle that all stews together in mid August to give us all of the information we’ll have available to us for that all-important few days prior to August 17 when we finish fiddling, complete our tinkering, say a final good luck prayer, and click CONFIRM TEAM.
Enjoy it FPL’ers….I know I will.
Please check out Walt’s new FPL blog.. A must read and well recommended from the FY team http://whatiwantmykidstoknowaboutfootball.blogspot.co.uk/
FPL: Arsenal’s Santi Cazorla – Differential Potential?
Many thanks to Inside FPL for this great post which looks at why Santi Cazorla should be considered for your FPL team. Check out Inside FPL on twitter @insidefantasyPL . You can also sign up for their free FPL weekly newsletter delivered directly into your email address. Click their logo at the bottom of this article for more information.
Santi Cazorla – Differential Potential?
A lot has been made of midfielders through this season’s fantasy football campaign, with 5 players in particular dominating manager’s selection thoughts – Bale, Mata, Michu, Fellaini and Walcott. But there is a 6th player who, whilst not exactly under the radar, has not grabbed the imagination as much as the others, is actually the 3rd highest scoring midfielder in the game, and 5th overall. He’s also as nailed on as anyone in Arsenal’s starting lineup, In this article we take a look at the Arsene Wegner’s £16m summer signing from Malaga, Santiago “Santi” Cazorla González, review his fantasy form, and prospects for your team through to the end of the season.
Cazorla was immediately handed the advanced role in the midfield three, ahead of the double-pivot typical now in the modern 4-2-3-1. He made a big impact as soon as GW3, with 2 goals away at Liverpool and 13 FPL points. At the time Arsenal were receiving plaudits for a new found defensive resolve and his Anfield brace came on top of him topping the key pass and shooting charts. A real prospect then, and with a home clash against promoted Southampton ahead the transfers soon flowed in. Almost 100,000 managers brought in the Spaniard for GW4 but despite a 6-1 thrashing of Southampton Santi registered just a single assist. He bounced straight back though with an assist and 2 bonus points away against Man City and followed that up with 3 goals in his next 7 games, including goals in games against Man Utd and Tottenham.
Cazorla really garnered full-on fantasy attention though with a hat-trick and assist in a 5-2 away win at Reading, scoring a whopping 23 points, the second highest single GW score this season, behind Walcott’s 26. This did come in the middle of an a lean spell though, just the one, albeit a big one, goal-scoring performance in 10 games. With his hat-trick haul still fresh in the mind though and a double gameweek on the horizon Cazorla’s ownership peaked up at 21% but despite a fairly decent return during this time 5% of managers have since got rid, driven mainly due to some scintillating performances by team-mate Walcott, plus the form and opportunities of alternatives in Gerrard and Bale.
The infographic below shows Cazorla’s form, which we measure by comparing the number of shots he takes from inside the penalty box with how many shots in the box Arsenal have. We can see that Cazorla’s form basically tracks Arsenal’s. If his team do well, so does he, if the team are struggling, so does he. He doesn’t carry the team and dominate, like Bale does, or Ba did for Newcastle. He doesn’t produce something out of nothing a la Van Persie.. He’s had a real slump through January too, scoring just once and averaging only 3 pts/game in that time, but as can be seen he’s got himself back involved in Arsenal’s attack now, and the goals and points have returned.
So, what are the prospects for Santi from now through to the end of the season? Well, we imagine it’ll be business as usual, but without the winter slump, averaging about 6-7 points per game through to the end of the season. This places him behind Bale, and indeed behind Walcott, but level with the likes of Mata and Michu. He’s significantly less owned though than all these other players, who are all 25-30% except for Michu who is almost at a staggering 50% now. Arsenal also have a tempting set of fixtures to come after their GW29, playing Reading, Norwich and Wigan at home, and Fulham and QPR away, plus another double gameweek, making Cazorla a massive differential captain option through that stretch. Keep an eye on his price, he could be just the player to make the kind of difference that counts.
About InsideFPL
InsideFPL are dedicated to bringing you expert analysis and unique services to help you dominate your mini league. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter and price change notifications at www.insidefpl.com and be sure to follow us on Twitter for more FPL news and goodies @insidefantasyPL.
Fantasy Premier League: Bonus Point Review
GW26 Bonus Points
So after all 11 fixtures scheduled for GW26 the completed batch of bonus points have been released.
Bale and Michu will be popular choices for 3 bonus points this week. RVP gets the 3 point award for today’s game against Everton also and this will no doubt be good news to the huge 40% + ownership who own the Dutchman. After consecutive gameweeks without a goal RVP returned to normality this afternoon with a goal and an assist.
Benteke with a goal and 2 BP’s is certainly building on his growing reputation and for Chelsea, Eden Hazard returned from suspension with a Goal, assist and 3 bonus points to round off a great performance.
Davis and Lambert both benefited from Southampton’s fantastic victory against City yesterday also.
As per usual, we would like to hear from you… Who got bonus points that shouldn’t have??
Already there have been grumbles heard about how Ramsey ended up with 3BP’s and Cazorla ?? Do you agree/Disagree.
Drop a comment below and let us know your thoughts.
With Liverpool still to play twice and West Brom and Swansea in action also, GW26 is shaping up to provide some big #FPL scores. How is your team doing so far – tweet us your scores @FantasyYIRMA
About us
FantasyYIRMA.com established in 2012, is a niche Fantasy Football site focused on providing news, views and insight for the English Premier League. Solid gameweek articles and Club features in addition to a top ranked free to play mini-league makes #FY a must read Fantasy source! Find us on twitter @FantasyYIRMA
Tottenham 2-1 Newcastle
Bonus:
3 BALE
2 DAWSON
1 PARKER
Chelsea 4-1 Wigan
Bonus:
3 Hazard
2 Apilicueta
1 Ramires
Norwich 0-0 Fulham
Bonus
3 Sidwell
2 Hangeland
2 Garrido
2 Turner
Stoke 2-1 Reading
Bonus:
3 Whelan
2 Huth
1 Mariappa
Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal
Bonus:
3 Ramsey
2 Walcott
1 Arteta
Swansea 4-1 QPR
Bonus:
3 Michu
2 Hernandez
1 Rangel
Southampton 3-1 Manchester City
Bonus:
3 Davis
2 Lambert
1 Dzeko
Aston Villa 2-1 West Ham
Bonus:
3 N’Zogbia
2 Benteke
1 Westwood
Manchester United 2-0 Everton
Bonus:
3 Van Persie
2 Cleverley
2 Giggs
Liverpool 0-2 West Brom
Bonus:
3 McAuley
2 Mulumbu
1 Foster
Liverpool 5-0 Swansea
Bonus:
3 Enrique
2 Suarez
1 Sturridge
You can still join the #FantasyYirma mini-league – be warned the competition is tough! The FantasyYirma mini-league is one of the TOP RANKED in the overall game! Click the link below to Join.
The Official FantasyYirma League is FREE TO PLAY and has a £50 cash prize for the winner.
Click to Join. http://fantasy.premierleague.com/my-leagues/15005/join/?autojoin-code=44397-15005
The prize money is provided by the FY Admin team member with the lowest total score at the end of the season…
To take £50 off your mate in a bet is fun- to make him sponsor the league for an entire season …is funnier.
Follow @fantasyyirmaFantasy Football: The “must have” Midfielders !
There is a wealth of information out there now related to Fantasy Football. The good news is that so much of it is well worth a read when considering changes for your #FPL squad. This article is no exception, a fantastic guest post from @fpl_mentor on the Midfielders your team needs to be thinking of! The link at the bottom will take you to the original article. Highly recommended.
As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.
Must Have FPL Players – Midfielders
If you’ve been following my team over the last few weeks, you’ll know that I used my January wildcard in GW22. One of my main objectives was to come out of DGW22 and DGW23 not only having exploited them as much as possible, but also to end up with RVP and my dream midfield.I say my dream midfield, but it’s turned into somewhat of a template midfield in FPL terms – the Magic 5 of Mata, Walcott, Bale, Michu and Fellaini.
Having said that, the player with the lowest owned % of the 5 is Gareth Bale at 16.7% so that’s the absolute maximum % of FPL managers who have this midfield. Realistically it’s more likely to be closer to the lower end of the 5-10% range at most, if even that, so it’s not quite as common a 5-man midfield as you may have been led to believe.
So why is this 5 so special then? What makes them the ‘Magic 5’?
Let’s have a look at some of the important figures – minutes played, total points scores, and most importantly in my opinion, the number of points they score per 90 minutes played.
I’ve taken the 10 highest scoring midfielders so far this season so you can see how the Magic 5 compare to the other 5 that make up the top 10. The following table shows all 10 listed in descending order according to their total number of points. Ignore the 2 columns on the right for now, I’ll get to those shortly.
|
Rank
|
Player
name
|
% of teams
owned by
|
Current
price
|
Minutes played
|
Total points
|
Points per 90
minutes played
|
Value for
money
|
|
1
|
Mata
|
27.0%
|
10.0
|
1589
|
137
|
7.76
|
77.60%
|
|
2
|
Michu
|
49.0%
|
8.4
|
1878
|
130
|
6.23
|
74.17%
|
|
3
|
Cazorla
|
19.0%
|
9.6
|
2025
|
129
|
5.73
|
59.72%
|
|
4
|
Gerrard
|
7.0%
|
9.5
|
2070
|
128
|
5.57
|
58.58%
|
|
5
|
Hazard
|
21.6%
|
9.4
|
1789
|
127
|
6.39
|
67.97%
|
|
6
|
Walcott
|
21.7%
|
9.4
|
1226
|
121
|
8.88
|
94.50%
|
|
7
|
Bale
|
16.8%
|
9.8
|
1661
|
118
|
6.39
|
65.24%
|
|
8
|
Fellaini
|
34.2%
|
7.7
|
1614
|
111
|
6.19
|
80.38%
|
|
9
|
Lennon
|
8.0%
|
7.3
|
1992
|
98
|
4.43
|
60.65%
|
|
10
|
Silva
|
6.6%
|
9.4
|
1561
|
96
|
5.53
|
58.88%
|
The ever-consistent Juan Mata leads the way on this one, as you probably already know. This is just so you can see who makes up the top 10 more than anything. You might have expected the Magic 5 to be filling the top 5 spots but this isn’t the case, with Cazorla, Gerrard and Hazard joining Magic duo Mata and Michu in there while Magic trio Walcott, Bale and Fellaini only only take up places 6, 7 and 8 in this rankings table.
So why aren’t Cazorla, Gerrard and Hazard in the Magic 5 then? Don’t they deserve to be if they’ve score more points than Walcott, Bale and Fellaini??
Link to original article to Read more »
#FPL Insight: Mata vs. Hazard by @shots_on_target
#FPL Insight Mata vs. Hazard by @shots_on_target
Big thanks to Yirma regular @shots_on_target for a great insight piece – to view more of his articles check his site at www.shotsontarget.co.uk
There’s been a fair bit of discussion lately about Chelsea’s midfield pair of Juan Mata and Eden Hazard and this article reviews their form and fantasy impact to date.
Eden Hazard exploded into life as an FPL fantasy asset, with 6 assists and a penalty goal in his first 2 games against Wigan and Reading. Subsequently he saw his ownership increase to 32% and a price rise from the standard elite midfielder price tag of £9.5m up to an on-form Van Der Vaart-esque £10.3m. He was the leading pick in Fantasy Football Scout’s Captain Poll for GW7 and returned this faith with a goal against Norwich.
Juan Mata, on the other hand saw a drop in ownership and price due to a withdrawn role, playing in the ‘double-pivot’ position in the opening games. In this position he pulls the strings from deep, orchestrating play, but is much less involved in the finishing off of attacking moves.
This is clearly represented by a comparison of both players attacking stats from the first two gameweeks with Hazard earning an average F.SCORE of 46 compared to Mata’s 26.
Fig1. Mata vs Hazard (GW1-2)
It was well documented that following a summer at the the Euros and the Olympics with Spain that Mata was in need of a rest, and he missed out in GW4. On his return to the Chelsea line-up though, Mata was returned to one of the 3 attacking midfield roles and his performances have again caught the attention of fantasy managers with a goal and 4 assists in three premiership appearances on top of 2 Champion’s League goals.
For gameweek 5 through 7 Mata and Hazard have returned near identical performances in terms of their underlying data., with both registering an average F.SCORE of 44, Mata slightly edging it by 1 key pass.
Fig.2. Mata vs Hazard (GW5-7)
Although both players have performed equally overall It’s worth taking a closer look however at each player’s consistency through this period. Here’s a look at their F.SCORE for each of their fixtures to date.
It’s quite a limited sample size, particularly since Mata’s change in position, but there are a few patterns to pick out here. Firstly Mata’s form and involvement are increasing game on game, whereas Hazard’s is not . Mata looks to be the more consistent of the two.
Hazard on the other hand appears more capable of a higher score in any given gameweek, and you can regard him as the more “explosive” of the two. However, it’s possible he could be a bit of a flat-track bully, or even a home ground player, only really excelling in the two fixtures so far It’s notable he had pretty quiet games in gtougher fixtures against Stoke and Arsenal.
SUMMARY
Both players are capable of returning FPL seasons in the 175 point region. Mata is the more consistent of the pair and the one more likely to return points through a tougher spell of fixtures, especially with his share of free-kicks and corners. Hazard is the better pick for easier fixtures and a better captain option in these circumstances.It depends on what you are looking for from your elite midfielder. For me, I would expect consistent returns week on week despite the opponent, rather than an occasional big returns against weaker opponents. In this respect Juan Mata would be my pick of the two, especially ahead of the Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures, and at a considerable £1.4m discount.
Some words of caution though, Mata’s skill-set may see him pulled back into the deeper playmaker’s role in the absence of either Lampard or Ramires , whereas Hazard is clearly suited to the advanced role, plus looks to be on penalties after Lampard. Also, Hazard is obviously new to this division since a step up from the French League and he may still be finding his feet.
CONCLUSION
Own Mata through a trickier spell of fixtures or for the longer term but pick up Hazard when the league’s minnows pay visit to Stamford Bridge.
To see @shots_on_target follow this article up with some further analysis with Cazorla and Bale visit his website at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2012/10/matahazard-vs-95m.html
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