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West Bromwich Albion: Some forward thinking

 

Have you heard the one about the Irishman, the Belgian and the Nigerian? Premier League defences have and they’re growing increasingly sick of it.

It’s no joke that West Bromwich Albion are performing so well in this campaign though, and with early season optimism now giving way to mid-season reality there appears to be a real belief that Shane Long, Romelu Lukaku, Peter Odemwingie and an increasingly impressive supporting cast can fire the Baggies to new heights.

Just how high those highs can get depends on what happens over the next few months of course, but with pre-season hopes of successfully fighting relegation now morphing into desires of a top half finish (even Europe?) then The Hawthorns is fast becoming a good place to be.

Roberto di Matteo will be back there on Saturday 21 months after losing his job as Baggies boss, and whilst his sacking seemed more than a little harsh at the time it is yet further evidence that this is a club who are not afraid to make brave and bold decisions both on and off the pitch.

Behind the scenes, sporting and technical director Dan Ashworth undertakes a role the like of which isn’t all too common in the Premier League, and would become less so at the end of the current season were he not involved in appointing his successor before his heads off to take up a similar role with England.

A former player, Ashworth is a savvy operator who has gone about improving West Brom’s fortunes since being appointed to the role in late 2007. When things looked in danger of unravelling under Di Matteo, Ashworth stepped in and appointed Roy Hodgson to steer the side to mid-table. Eyebrows might have been raised when he chose Steve Clarke as Hodgson’s replacement following his departure for England, but so far so very, very good.

And why shouldn’t it be? Clarke was an experienced player at the top level and has learned his coaching trade under the likes of Jose Mourinho and Kenny Dalglish. That Ashworth and West Brom had the bravery to give him his step up to become a No. 1 is a decision that has so far been richly rewarded.

The likes of Ben Foster, Gareth McAuley, James Morrison, Claudio Yacob and Youssouf Mulumbu have all impressed as the Baggies have picked up six wins in their opening 11 games to sit fifth in the table above fancied teams such as Tottenham and Arsenal, but it is those three attackers mentioned earlier who appear to epitomise everything about this forward thinking club.

Long, Lukaku and Odemwingie have each scored three goals in the league this season, and although when combined that only just puts the three of them ahead of the division’s top scorers Luis Suarez and Robin van Persie – who each have eight apiece – they have been invaluable contributors to a team who appear to fear no-one.

There will of course be tough challenges ahead – not least Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United before the turn of the year – but there is nothing to suggest that West Brom should go into any of those games with an inferiority complex. Everton, a club who West Brom are currently on the same points as and beat at The Hawthorns in early September, are often lauded for the workaholic way that they tackle every game, so why not the Baggies too?

As well as hard work, Clarke’s rotation of his three forwards has been key to their success, and there wasn’t a hint of dissent when Odemwingie was dropped to the bench for last weekend’s visit to Wigan just a few days after he’d scored twice against Southampton.

The options will be limited against Chelsea at the weekend due to Lukaku being unable to face his parent club, but Long, Odemwingie and their team-mates will be working as hard as ever to deliver against the European champions.

Clarke will demand nothing less, and’s that’s no joke.

@Mark_Jones86

GW11 THE REVIEW!! by @shots_on_target

Many Thanks to @shots_on_target for this weeks GW round up. For more great articles from our very own “Statto”  check out his website at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk !!

Special mention this week to new guest poster Super Grover  who has provided Match reports to supplement the tables

Very accurate and clinical shooting by both teams. The game wasn’t quite as open as the score dictates as 15 shots in the box is pretty standard. Just one of those games where everything goes in, except Arteta’s penalty that is!

As for individuals, Giroud is the obvious star here. Superb game all around. Berbatov continues to be superb and appears almost fixture proof at this point. Ruiz would be interesting if listed as a MID.

Cazorla’s numbers weren’t bad, but at his price range he needs to produce more in this kind of fixture. Suspect a number of owners will be rethinking their elite MID options with Mata on fire and Silva back from the injury list.

Sunderland managed to find the back of the net again although Everton were clearly the better side in this one. Everton continue to press forward and are susceptible to counters. All the Blues offensive players were involved (Fellaini, Pienaar, Baines, Jelavic, Mirallas) and any of them could have brought home the points. This team remains a gold mine for attacking fantasy purposes.

Wouldn’t look too much at Heitenga’s shot opportunities. Yes he kicked/headed the ball towards the goal, but if Saturday is any indication he’s going to struggle to ever put one on the goal. With any skill he could have easily netted a brace.

While Sessegnon was a handful and showed some of the form he demonstrated last season they still managed just 3 shots on goal. It is still difficult to consider this team from an offensive perspective other than perhaps Fletcher.

My model predicted about 1.5 goals for Man U this weekend. They scored 3 from onlu 5 shots on target. They continue to confound any statistical forecaster with their absurd conversion rate (now at 46% for the year). Van Persie was the most provocative player, but had 4 shots to Rooney’s 4 in 17 fewer minutes and Hernandez’ 3 in 47 fewer minutes. RVP remains a fantasy monster but at soon to be 13.7 million you certainly are paying for it.

Villa didn’t do a whole lot but everything they did was funneled through Benteke and Weimann. While Benteke is a legit fantasy option, Weimann seems like a non-entity to me. This was his first game of any real contribution and Bent remains an ever present option on the bench. I personally see no value in Villa’s offense.

Even game in which Stoke were probably somewhat fortunate to get a clean sheet. Crouch and Walters were involved, but neither are elite options as Stoke isn’t going to put up many crooked numbers this year. For QPR, Taarabt was a menace to both sides as usual, being more than a bit free with his shots. Granero was also heavily involved and Hoillet was solid as well. This is the third game in a row the trio has started together. Any of the three are legit fantasy options if QPR can click into some sort of form. All are on my radar.

Terrible game to watch. From Adebayor’s diving to Mancini’s sideline histrionics. City dominated the game throughout and probably should have scored 3. Aguero and Silva were excellent as expected while I thought Tevez was a bit subdued. Dzeko really was only involved in his goal and a corner, but his presence remains troublesome to Tevez owners. Interestingly Balotelli and Nasri weren’t even included on the bench.

To me, Aguero and Silva are the key options here, with Tevez there if you want to try and read Mancini’s mind. The defense remains stout as Totenham barely threatened and the goal was very soft. Probably should have been a clean sheet for City.

For the Spurs, there wasn’t much to talk about. Adebayor was a flopping menace but didn’t really threaten much. Bale was starved of many real opportunities for him. One thing to note is that Huddlestone took nearly every free kick and 1 of the 2 corners. If that continues that is a bit of a knock on Bale’s value. It did not occur last game though so I wouldn’t look too much into it. Besides Bale, the rest of the Spurs look like non-options right now.

Don’t look now, but Southampton’s defense is improving. It’s still not good mind you, but improvement is improvement. Swansea really didn’t generate much offense and widely-held Michu and Routledge were invisible. For Routledge, this is the 3rd straight fixture that he has been a non-factor. De Guzman was better this week and has been better recently, but probably not strong enough to warrant investment.

For Southampton, Lambert remains a well-rounded asset, especially at home. He now has 21 chances created on the season, third behind Suarez and RVP among all forwards. If he plays he is almost certainly worth the money at 6.1. Ramirez continues to rack up solid numbers in his playing time. He is now averaging 3 shots and 2.2 chances created per 90 minutes, solid numbers for a 6.0 million MID. Lallana remains a solid 6.0 option as well.

Even game. Both teams were somewhat threatening but only generated 4 chances on target. For WBA, Morrison remains the key figure although Lukaku remains a constant goal threat when he is given time on the pitch. Brunt started instead of Gera this week so that probably removes Gera as a budget option. On the other side it was more of a mixed bag. Kone scored but had only 2 shots all day and no key passes. Di Santo didn’t do much either. Watson did manage 3 shots for the second week in a row. Could he become an option with regular playing time?

Shots on target was right, Reading’s defense was the way to go this week! A pretty non-eventful game, with both teams struggling to generate anything with only 13 total chances created. Hoolahan, Snoddgrass and Holt remain interesting options on Norwich presuming rotations issues can be weeded out. For Reading, only Shorey did anything useful by racking up 3 key passes from his very advanced left-back position. Not sure he is worth investment though as they won’t be playing Norwich’s offense at home every week.

Newcastle probably deserved at least a draw here. West Ham continued their run of allowing a ton of shots and not a ton of goals. Currently, the opposition is converting just 17.7% of their shots on target against the Hammers. Don’t expect that to continue. On offense, WHM has been very aggressive getting shots close in and the pattern continued this week. Nolan remains the primary contributor here although Noble is very cheap and remains on all kicks (including penalties).

On the other side it was pretty much status quo. Cabaye outperformed HBA, but Ben Arfa did enough to keep him as a viable, albeit pricey, midfield option. Ba was Ba, with the only difference being that he didn’t score on one of his 2 shots on target. Cisse remains a non option at this time.

Entertaining game to watch. Liverpool came out in a 3-5-2 formation with Enrique and Johnson as wing backs. Seemed to confuse the Reds more than Chelsea and the home team really dominated the first half. The second half saw a switch to a more traditional back four with Enrique playing left-mid and Gerrard dropping deeper to orchestrate the offense instead of Joe Allen (who was putrid in the opening 45). Liverpool were the better team in the second half and deserved the single point.

On Liverpool, Suarez continued his excellent recent form and seemed more restrained than usual (a 5th yellow on his mind perhaps). His shot and key pass numbers were down a bit but that was more of a reflection of the dominance by Chelsea in the first half. Sterling again created a couple opportunities with his pace. I purchased Sterling at 4.7 and am thrilled with his production. At his current price, I am not sure I wouldn’t be happier trying my luck with Taarabt. On the backline, both Johnson and Enrique were involved offensively, although Enrique’s clumsiness was apparent to my eye. Gerrard was a non-factor as he spent most of the second half directing things as a holding mid. He also gave up corner duties to Suso.

For Chelsea, Mata, Hazard and Torres were all heavily involved. Oscar was excellent but he remains a bit deeper than the other two #10s and thus doesn’t have the same fantasy potential in my opinion. Torres was Torres, getting a hold of a good number of solid chances but failing to put any in the back of the net. Hazard and Mata both remain solid fantasy assets.

 

 

Big thanks again to @shots_on_target for the Stats and new guest poster SuperGrover for his match reports!! Visit http://www.shotsontarget.com for more great articles!!

GW11 NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!! #FPL

Gameweek 11
10 Nov 15:00 Arsenal Arsenal 3 – 3 Fulham Fulham
Bonus
Giroud (2)
Bonus
Kacaniklic (2)
Berbatov (3)
10 Nov 15:00 Everton Everton 2 – 1 Sunderland Sunderland
10 Nov 15:00 Reading Reading 0 – 0 Norwich Norwich
Bonus
Morrison
McCleary (2)
Bonus
Garrido (3)
10 Nov 15:00 Southampton Southampton 1 – 1 Swansea Swansea
Bonus
Schneiderlin (2)
Bonus
Monk (2)
Dyer (3)
10 Nov 15:00 Stoke City Stoke City 1 – 0 QPR QPR
Bonus
Shawcross (3)
Adam (2)
Bonus
Ferdinand
10 Nov 15:00 Wigan Wigan 1 – 2 West Brom West Brom
10 Nov 17:30 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2 – 3 Man Utd Man Utd
Bonus
Weimann (2)
Bonus
Carrick
Hernandez (3)
11 Nov 13:30 Man City Man City 2 – 1 Tottenham Tottenham
Bonus
Silva (2)
Aguero (3)
Bonus
Caulker
11 Nov 15:00 Newcastle Newcastle 0 – 1 West Ham West Ham
11 Nov 16:00 Chelsea Chelsea 1 – 1 Liverpool Liverpool
Bonus
Terry (2)
Bonus
Jose Enrique
Suarez (3)

GW10 – THE REVIEW… by @shots_on_target

 

GW10 Match Review

Man United’s goal threat overall is almost entirely through Rooney and Van Persie.  Asa you’d expect of course.  Rooney’s missed penalty would have cost those who showed the faith in him but there should be know reason to panic with him getting as many opportunities to score as his Dutch colleague.  Van Persie just has that extra cutting edge which is what the extra £2m buys you.   Once again for Arsenal it’s all about Cazorla and Giroud.  I own both these and really, really am hoping they can do something at home against Fulham.

 

 

Fellaini overshadows everyone here on a team full of goal chances, and therefore goals.  Everton should have had 4 or 5 here, and Fuylham were very luck to get draw level.  On another day Jelavic should have scored at least one and Baines or Pienaar an assist.  If Everton can keep the Fellaini fit then everyone in this team will profit.  Fulham were outclassed but Berbatov is still their main man.  They will live to fight another day,


A game of limited chances as you would expect, with Norwich having the most chances overall but Stoke getting into the penalty box more.  Pilkington had the stand out game from Norwich reminding us of his brief flurry of goals last season, although it was Johnson who grabbed the goal from one of two efforts.  Stoke are never going to create many chances away from home so this is as expected really.

Swansea did a really good job here of limiting the number of good chances from Chelsea whilst almost matching them for threat going forward.   Hazard had a good game in Mata’s absence with the lion’s share of the visitor’s shooting opportunities but with 3 out fo 4 of these coming from outside the box it’s not really a great surprise he did not score.  Michu’s advanced role for Swansea has allowed De Guzman to get forward more he is a good alternative to the Spaniard.

No doubt many FPL managers, myself included, would have captained Gareth Bale in this game in what looked a “plum fixture” for the London outfit.  Wigan are starting to recapture the kind of performance that kept them in this league at the end of last season.  This is the second game in a row in which Spurs have failed to create the league average number of SoT and Sin and that does not bode well.  Bale was, as usual, the number one attacking threat for Tottenham but it is starting to look like AVB’s tactical approach struggles without key players in the Spurs engine room, such as Dembele and Sandro.  Wigan did not create a great deal of chances with Kone and Maloney and goalscorer Watson their top fantasy performers.

 

 


Zero shots on target here from West Ham is my highlight here, and only 6 shots in total, 4 in the box.   This from a team who very much like to get the ball in the box under Sam Alladaryce.  This really shows that the Manchester City defence is good.  I hesitate to say improving as their early season defensive form has been great, it was just the all important clean sheet that was missing.  It’s obviously worth a mention that Kevin Nolan had a legit goal ruled out for offside.  Hardly any attacking threat from the City fullbacks is perhaps a sign of an increased defensive focus from Mancini. Going forward for City, Balotelli and Dzeko were wasteful, with their opportunities with Tevez playing a deeper, more creative role in comparison.  Nasri, given the attacking role he should play in this team, has been very quiet all season.

I’d love to have the time to study Sunderland in more detail this season, and watch videos of all their matches.  Just why it is they can’t hit the target I do not know, despite 10 attempts in the box against Villa here, with the whole team guilty of wayward shooting, except for Fletcher, who didn’t really get a sniff.  Benteke and Agbonlahor are a decent enough pairing and if Weimann and Bannan can keep their place they look a real prospect for FPL managers at £5.2m and £4.9m respectively..  No sign of Darren Bent.


My selection of Junior Hoilett in my GW10 Select XI didn’t bear fruit here, although he was fairly well involved.  Tarrabt and Cisse clearly hogged the shooting chances for Rangers though, with the Moroccan having an hugely impressive 8 shots in total but a really not so impressive 2 in the box.  Someone (perhaps the manager) should tell him how well correlated goals are to shots in the box and how badly they are with shots from outside.    Reading create plenty of chances but not so many on target.


Liverpool, as a team, are struggling a bit, mainly due to the fact they aren’t really a team.  They are Luis Suarez. The Uruguayan pretty much single handed creates and takes all of everything Liverpool do up front.  Gerrard looked busy but shooting from range so much.  Shelvey was an early season tip from me, until his red card in the United game and 3 match ban.  If he gets his place back ahead of Sahin he could be worth a look.   Demba Ba did not do much before limping off with just one long range effort that was never going in.  Newcastle’s main fantasy interest came from Ben Arfa and Cabaye, but overall their wasn’t much threat from the visitors who really rely on goals from their centre forward to win the games.


Apologies to anyone who took a punt on Lukaku here.  Didn’t start. Sorry!  Odemwingie served a reminder of his ability with a very prominent display and two goals.  In the absence of much favoured James Morrison who had a knock Mulumbu dominated the midfield.  Adkin’s inclusion of Lambert provided the chief threat for the visitors but the Baggies defence is deserving of this clean sheet.

 

 

 

To read more from @shots_on_target head over to http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk

GW10 – NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!!

Gameweek 10
03 Nov 12:45 Man Utd Man Utd 2 – 1 Arsenal Arsenal
03 Nov 15:00 Fulham Fulham 2 – 2 Everton Everton
Bonus
Riether (2)
Sidwell (2)
Bonus
Fellaini (3)
03 Nov 15:00 Norwich Norwich 1 – 0 Stoke City Stoke City
03 Nov 15:00 Sunderland Sunderland 0 – 1 Aston Villa Aston Vil
03 Nov 15:00 Swansea Swansea 1 – 1 Chelsea Chelsea
Bonus
Hernandez (2)
Bonus
Cahill
Moses (3)
03 Nov 15:00 Tottenham Tottenham 0 – 1 Wigan Wigan
03 Nov 17:30 West Ham West Ham 0 – 0 Man City Man City
Bonus
Collins
Bonus
Clichy (2)
Nasri (3)
04 Nov 13:30 QPR QPR 1 – 1 Reading Reading
04 Nov 16:00 Liverpool Liverpool 1 – 1 Newcastle Newcastle
05 Nov 20:00 West Brom

Bonus
Foster
Mulumbu (2)
Odemwingie (3)

 

West Brom v Southampton Southampton

Manchester United – #FPL Selection Advice

Many thanks to @shots_on_target for providing this Fantasy Yirma exclusive post! You can check out his top content at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk .

The burning question on many Fantasy Managers lips right now is which Manchester United players to own ahead of the a delightful  fixture list.   Sir Alex’s Ferguson’s men are already the top scoring team in the league this season with 24 goals, 3 ahead of next best Chelsea.  This was despite some tricky fixtures against the defensive set up of Stoke and away at Stamford Bridge.  What can they achieve over the next set of games?

GW 10 (H) ARS GW 16 (A) MCI
GW 11 (A) AVL GW 17 (H) SUN
GW 12 (A) NOR GW 18 (A) SWA
GW 13 (H) QPR GW 19 (H) NEW
GW 14 (H) WHM GW 20 (H) WBA
GW 15 (A) RDG GW 21 (A) WIG

As can be seen, aside from the trip to the Etihad in GW16 there’s hardly a game where United won’t be expected to score, and there could be a few drubbings along the way.   So who to own?  I’m going to take a look through each of the three outfield positions in fantasy football – Defence, Midfield, and Attack.

DEFENCE

DEF £ TSB
Rafael £6.0 20%
Evra £6.8 7%
Ferdinand £5.9 3%
Vidic £6.7 3%
Jones £5.6 1%

First up there have been questions raised about United’s defence this season.  An early injury to Vidic has left United without their defensive rock again this season, and it’s telling, although the finger has been pointed at the lack of a proper hard man to boss the midfield, a la Roy Keane and Patrick Viera.  These are players of the last decade though, and today’s football is evolving, spearheaded by Barcelona and Spain.  These days you don’t need necessarily need a hard man in midfield, particularly at the top level, rather 11 good football players, who can pass the ball and use the available space on the field as a team in both the attacking and defensive play.

Sir Alex’s men have been conceding goals and giving up clean sheets, and perhaps not really caring, relying on sheer goal threat to win games.  The £24M signing of Robin Van Persie a clear indicator of their intent this season it seems.

Despite this though, they aren’t defending terribly, and are still within the top 5 or 6 teams defensively, which makes the likes of Jonny Evans and Rafael arguably ownable at £6m or less on clean sheet potential alone.  It’s the attacking potential though were United’s players will be hoping to earn their corn.  Below is a graphic showing Man Utd’s current back four.  The image shows the relative statistics for each of the defender’s key attacking stats.  As shown, Evra and Rafael lead the way in all categories, which is expected of full-backs in a side like United.  Jonny Evans has been a threat from set pieces too, whilst Rio Ferdinand is left to watch the halfway line it seems.

Of these four, Rafael at £6m now compared to Evra’s £6.8m is clearly the man to own.  The Brazilian’s current ownership of 20% means 1 in 5 FPL managers will have him in their line-ups.  Despite his high ownership I’d still recommended buying him, he’s the kind of player who could score really big and represents little risk for his value.

MIDFIELD

MID £ TSB
Kagawa £8.2 7%
Valencia £8.6 3%
Cleverley £5.7 3%
Nani £8.4 2%
Scholes £5.3 2%
Carrick £5.8 2%
Young £8.2 1%

Carrick is the only player in the United midfield that has played every game so far.  Alex Ferguson has really chopped and changed his midfield, bringing in the likes of Giggs and Scholes for certain games, Cleverly has been in and out, Young was injured, Kagawa still is.  It’s really been a minefield.

The chief contenders for FPL points are currently Valencia and Young, with Nani and Kagawa behind these two fighting for inclusion.  The graphic below has been done on a per minute basis and Ashley Young has had little game time compared to the others.  It seems Kagawa and Nani fit into a similar pattern, heavily involved in the attacking build-up (Final 3rd Passes) and creating a medium number of chances and shooting opportunities for themselves.  Valencia is much more direct; he does not feature much in the attacking build-up, or get in many shots. He’s out wide providing the ammo.  With doubts over the starting roles still for Nani, Young, and indeed Kagawa, Antonio Valencia is my pick of United’s midfield.

FORWARDS

FWD £ TSB
Van Persie £13.4 32%
Rooney £11.8 8%
Welbeck £8.0 1%
Hernandez £7.5 1%

The big question.  Rooney or Van Persie.  Both?  What about neither.  Welbeck and Hernandez are intriguing options and you should act fast if either Rooney or RVP were to suffer an injury, for now they will have to remain on the sidelines.

It has to be said it is still very early in the Rooney-Van Persie partnership.  They only started 3 games together in the league so far.  In these though, Rooney has tended to drop very deep, playing as a midfield playmaker, as can be seen by his final 3rd passes in the image below.  , which represents both players stats in these last 3 games only.  Rooney surprisingly, despite his less advanced position, has edged out Van Persie in all four key stats.  In the 3 games they’ve played together both have scored 2 goals, Rooney has 2 assists, Van Persie 3.  They have also shared set pieces, with Van Persie having most of the corners and Rooney the free kicks.  It really is a close call, but with Rooney coming in at £1.6M cheaper and much less owned he gets my vote out of the two.

GW9 – NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS!!

Gameweek 9
27 Oct 12:45 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1 – 1 Norwich Norwich
Bonus
Benteke
Bonus
Turner (3)
Hoolahan (2)
27 Oct 15:00 Arsenal Arsenal 1 – 0 QPR QPR
27 Oct 15:00 Reading Reading 3 – 3 Fulham Fulham
27 Oct 15:00 Stoke City Stoke City 0 – 0 Sunderland Sunderland
Bonus
Shawcross (3)
Huth (2)
Bonus
Mignolet
27 Oct 15:00 Wigan Wigan 2 – 1 West Ham West Ham
27 Oct 17:30 Man City Man City 1 – 0 Swansea Swansea
28 Oct 13:30 Everton Everton 2 – 2 Liverpool Liverpool
28 Oct 15:00 Newcastle Newcastle 2 – 1 West Brom West Brom
Bonus
Ba (2)
Cisse
Bonus
Lukaku (3)
28 Oct 15:00 Southampton Southampton 1 – 2 Tottenham Tottenham
28 Oct 16:00 Chelsea Chelsea 2 – 3 Man Utd Man Utd

NOTHING BUT BONUS POINTS GW 8

Gameweek 8
20 Oct 12:45 Tottenham Tottenham 2 – 4 Chelsea Chelsea
20 Oct 15:00 Fulham Fulham 1 – 0 Aston Villa Aston Villa
20 Oct 15:00 Liverpool Liverpool 1 – 0 Reading Reading
20 Oct 15:00 Man Utd Man Utd 4 – 2 Stoke City Stoke City
20 Oct 15:00 Swansea Swansea 2 – 1 Wigan Wigan
20 Oct 15:00 West Brom West Brom 1 – 2 Man City Man City
20 Oct 15:00 West Ham West Ham 4 – 1 Southampton Southampton
20 Oct 17:30 Norwich Norwich 1 – 0 Arsenal Arsenal
21 Oct 13:30 Sunderland Sunderland 1 – 1 Newcastle Newcastle
Bonus

O’Shea (2)
Larsson (2)
Bonus
Cabaye (3)
21 Oct 16:00 QPR QPR 1 – 1 Everton Everton

#FPL Insight: Mata vs. Hazard by @shots_on_target

#FPL Insight Mata vs. Hazard by @shots_on_target

Big thanks to Yirma regular @shots_on_target for a great insight piece – to view more of his articles check his site at www.shotsontarget.co.uk
There’s been a fair bit of discussion lately about Chelsea’s midfield  pair of  Juan Mata and Eden Hazard and this article reviews their form and fantasy impact to date.
Eden Hazard exploded into life as an FPL fantasy asset, with 6 assists and a penalty goal in his first 2 games against Wigan and Reading. Subsequently he saw his ownership increase to 32% and a price rise from the standard elite midfielder price tag of £9.5m up to an on-form Van Der Vaart-esque £10.3m.  He was the leading pick in Fantasy Football Scout’s Captain Poll for GW7 and returned this faith with a goal against Norwich.
Juan Mata, on the other hand saw a drop in ownership and price due to a withdrawn role, playing in the ‘double-pivot’ position in the opening games.  In this position he pulls the strings from deep, orchestrating play, but is much less involved in the finishing off of attacking moves.

This is clearly represented by a comparison of both players attacking stats from the first two gameweeks with Hazard earning an average F.SCORE of 46 compared to Mata’s 26.

                                                                                                                  Fig1.  Mata vs Hazard (GW1-2)
It was well documented that following a summer at the the Euros and the Olympics with Spain that Mata was in need of a rest, and he missed out in GW4.  On his return to the Chelsea line-up though, Mata was returned to one of the 3 attacking midfield roles and his performances have again caught the attention of fantasy managers with a goal and 4 assists in three premiership appearances on top of 2 Champion’s League goals.
For gameweek 5 through 7 Mata and Hazard have returned near identical performances in terms of their underlying data., with both registering an average  F.SCORE of 44, Mata slightly edging it by 1 key pass.
Fig.2.     Mata vs Hazard (GW5-7)
Although both players have performed equally overall It’s worth taking a closer look however at each player’s consistency through this period. Here’s a look at their F.SCORE for each of their fixtures to date.
It’s quite a limited sample size, particularly since Mata’s change in position, but there are a few patterns to pick out here.  Firstly Mata’s form and involvement are increasing game on game, whereas Hazard’s is not .  Mata looks to be the more consistent of the two.

Hazard on the other hand appears more capable of a higher score in any given gameweek, and you can regard him as the more “explosive” of the two.  However, it’s possible he could be a bit of a flat-track bully, or even a home ground player, only really excelling in the two fixtures so far  It’s notable he had pretty quiet games in gtougher fixtures against Stoke and Arsenal.
SUMMARY
Both players are capable of returning FPL seasons in the 175 point region.  Mata is the more consistent of the pair and the one more likely to return points through a tougher spell of fixtures, especially with his share of free-kicks and corners.  Hazard is the better pick for easier fixtures and a better captain option in these circumstances.It depends on what you are looking for from your elite midfielder.  For me, I would expect consistent returns week on week despite the opponent, rather than an occasional big returns against weaker opponents.  In this respect Juan Mata would be my pick of the two, especially ahead of the Chelsea’s upcoming  fixtures, and at a considerable £1.4m discount.

Some words of caution though, Mata’s skill-set may see him pulled back into the deeper playmaker’s role in the absence of either Lampard or Ramires , whereas Hazard is clearly suited to the advanced role, plus looks to be on penalties after Lampard.   Also, Hazard is obviously new to this division since a step up from the French League and he may still be finding his feet.
CONCLUSION
Own Mata through a trickier spell of fixtures or for the longer term but pick up Hazard when the league’s minnows pay visit to Stamford Bridge.

To see @shots_on_target follow this article up with some further analysis with Cazorla and Bale visit his website at http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2012/10/matahazard-vs-95m.html

TOM CLEVERLEY GOAL – FLUKE OR FINESSE

So was it a sublime finish from Tom Cleverley today for Manchester United against Newcastle – or did he overhit a ball intended for the head of RVP???

 

Lets see your comments below!!