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Fantasy Football: Tips out for Yirma! GW24
If @Pedro_Lamb wins his 100/1 correct score bet @ryano83 and @mark_jones86 may as well concede… he wont though so it’s ok….I hope…
Name this fish…
GAMEWEEK 24
Here within the Fantasy Yirma administration team, we like to pretend we have money. With that in mind we have devised a FY Tipster selection competition.
The loser from the Admin team at the end of the season will pay the £50 prize fund for the mini league!!
Here’s the current standings after Gameweek 23:
| FY Tipster | GW23 Spend | GW23 Return | Total Spend | Total Return | Difference |
| @pedro_lamb | £30 | £87.50 | £690 | £733.28 | £43.28 |
| @mark_jones86 | £30 | £0 | £690 | £507.19 | – £182.81 |
| @ryano83 | £30 | £33 | £690 | £803.66 | + £113.66 |
Rules
Each player must place three £10 bets (Monopoly) per gameweek. (SINGLES ONLY/ PL Only)
The bet can be on any individual result/market/outcome with the only proviso being that you must stipulate the odds at time of selection submission and it must be from the same odds provider.
In practice this means your three £10 bets can be across three fixtures or three markets within one match.
Get your tips out for Yirma!!!
Gameweek 24 tips:
£10 Correct Score QPR 2 -5 Man City 100/1
£10 Newcastle Win 9/5
£10 Swansea Win 2/1
£10 Villa v Newcastle 0-0 17/2
£10 Norwich Win 10/3
£10 Liverpool win 11/5
£10 Stoke to win (less than 2.5 goals in the game) 10/3
£10 West Ham win 5/2
£10 Everton Draw 14/5
Fantasy Premier League: GW24 Insight from @RotoZdroik
The guest posts have been coming through thick and fast of late and here at FantasyYIRMA we always welcome good content!
Adam is a staff writer from www.RotoExperts.com – an extremely well respected Fantasy sports site based in the USA. Delighted to feature his thoughts on the upcoming fixtures in GW24.
As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.
The Return of Steven Gerrard
FIVE FOR FIGHTING
Maybe Demba Ba isn’t worth it.
Wait, what?! Am I saying that the 500,000 people that grabbed Ba last week made a mistake? Yes, sort of.
Ba basically started in every match at Newcastle because he was their best chance at scoring. Chelsea plays more games (FA Cup, Capital One Cup, Europa League) and has a deeper roster. Ba will not be starting every match, which is what we saw this past weekend. Fernando Torres was rested for a few games, but got the start against Arsenal. Ba will definitely get his chances to score, but at 8.9m do 37 percent of owners need him on their roster? No. Forwards like Rickie Lambert, Christian Benteke and Dimitar Berbatov will get more playing time and score plenty at a cheaper value.
Don’t spend on defence.
This wasn’t really something we just found out, but it’s still important and something you need to know. Look at these numbers at each position.
No. 5 Goalkeeper: Jussi Jaaskelainen, 83 Fantasy Points
No. 15 Goalkeeper: Ben Foster, 54 FP (29-point difference)
No. 5 Defender: Daniel Agger, 84 FP
No. 30 Defender: Ashley Williams, 62 FP (22-point difference)
No. 5 Midfielder: Eden Hazard, 122 FP
No. 30 Midfielder: Damien Duff, 72 FP (50-point difference)
No. 5 Forward: Steven Fletcher, 112 FP
No. 20 Forward: Peter Crouch, 74 FP (38-point difference)
I used different numbers at GK and FOR because obviously, there are fewer players at those positions. It’s pretty evident where you want to spend your money and it’s not either defensive position. Going even further for goalkeepers, Joe Hart costs between 1-2m more than every other GK in the game and he’s still only the third best.
Why is Leighton Baines the third most owned defender when he’s also the most expensive? He’s not RVP. Everton actually had a streak of 16 straight games without a clean sheet which makes that even more questionable. Save a couple million and buy someone like Joey O’Brien who only has 16 less FP. That price is the difference between having Suarez or Nikica Jelavic on your squad. That’s a big difference.
Steven Gerrard looks to be back to his golden days. Photo Credit: Ruaraidh Gillies
Midfield is the way to go.
Van Persie and Luis Suarez are the top strikers in the Fantasy game, far and away. Those two have a chance at scoring in every single match no matter where or who they play.
I mentioned Ba earlier, who’s the second most owned forward. Carlos Tevez, Jermaine Defoe and Fernando Torres are next in line in ownership percentages. Tevez has fallen off lately and is getting outscored by Edin Dzeko as of late, not to mention Sergio Aguero just returned from injury. Defoe has one goal in his last eight starts, which isn’t going to cut it. Torres is Torres.
Why not focus on the top echelon of midfielders who have been dominant this season? Mata leads the way along with teammate Eden Hazard. Gareth Bale is always a threat and Theo Walcott is playing in a new role and is scoring for fun. The latest Spaniards to have taken the Premier League by storm are Michu and Santi Cazorla.
I can keep going with this list too. David Silva. Marouane Fellaini has been great this year. Aaron Lennon is having one of his best years in the BPL. Adel Taarabt has bonus points in five of his last seven matches.
The return of Leiva Lucas has given Steven Gerrard a more attacking role and he’s relishing it, looking like the Gerrard from his 2008-09 days. This current scoring version of Gerrard, we have not seen in a long, long time. All of a sudden, Stevie G has four goals and eight assists in his last 10 games. He had just two goals and three assists in the first 13 games. In the two previous campaigns, he had combined for only nine goals and seven assists. We are now in the days of Gerrard.
There are so many midfielder options right now that you should be starting four or five every week and if you aren’t, you’ll be left in the dust.
WEEKLY RANKINGS
Goalkeepers
- David de Gea, Man United, 5.5m, vs. Southampton
- Joe Hart, Man City, 6.9m, at QPR
- Asmir Begovic, Stoke City, 5.8m, vs. Wigan
- Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, 5.9m, at Norwich
- Petr Cech, Chelsea, 6.4m, at Reading
Defenders
- Patrice Evra, Man United, 7.1m, vs. Southampton
- Gael Clichy, Man City, 5.6m, at QPR
- Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea, 7.1m, at Reading
- Phil Jones, Man United, 5.6m, vs. Southampton
- Leighton Baines, Everton, 7.5m, vs. West Brom
- Kyle Walker, Tottenham, 6.1m, at Norwich
- Glen Johnson, Liverpool, 6.4m, at Arsenal
- Bacary Sagna, Arsenal, 5.2m, vs. Liverpool
- Sascha Riether, Fulham, 5.0m, vs. West Ham
- Ben Davies, Swansea, 4.3m, at Sunderland
Midfielders
- Juan Mata, Chelsea, 10.0m, at Reading
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal, 9.4m, vs. Liverpool
- David Silva, Man City, 9.4m, at QPR
- Gareth Bale, Tottenham, 9.8m, at Norwich
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, 9.4m, at Arsenal
- Michu, Swansea, 8.3m, at Sunderland
- Marouane Fellaini, Everton, 7.6m, vs. West Brom
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
- Aaron Lennon, Tottenham, 7.2m, at Norwich
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea, 8.4m, at Reading
Forwards
- Robin van Persie, Man United, 14.1m, vs. Southampton
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool, 10.5m, at Arsenal
- Edin Dzeko, Man City, 7.5m, at QPR
- Carlos Tevez, Man City, 8.9m, at QPR
- Christian Benteke, Aston Villa, 6.5m, vs. Newcastle
- Wayne Rooney, Man United, 11.8m, vs. Southampton
- Demba Ba, Chelsea, 8.9m, at Reading
- Fernando Torres, Chelsea, 9.5m, at Reading
- Lukas Podolski, Arsenal, 8.3m, vs. Liverpool
- Nikica Jelavic, Everton, 8.0m, vs. West Brom
YOU’RE THE CAPTAIN
- Robin van Persie, Man United
- Juan Mata, Chelsea
- Luis Suarez, Liverpool
- Theo Walcott, Arsenal
- David Silva, Man City
Robin van Persie will be playing at home against a club that has allowed the second most goals on the road this season. It doesn’t get any better than that. RVP has 10 goals in his last 10 league matches to go with four assists. He leads the Premier League in goals and has the second most assists for a forward.
While there are some nice matchups this week, it might be harder than you’d think for choosing your captain outside of RVP. Man City has a tricky road battle against a QPR side that has been playing well. Arsenal and Liverpool face each other at the Emirates. Tottenham travel to Norwich, a team that’s struggling, but has also only allowed 13 goals in 11 home matches. Chelsea have what looks to be an easy match at Reading, but the Royals have been playing well as of late, winning three straight matches in all competitions.
Reading may be playing better, but I’m still going with Mata as the second best captain this week. He’s been extremely consistent as of late with four goals and five assists in his past nine matches. That includes a goal or assist in five straight road games.
This next choice is the toughest. I’m going with Luis Suarez because I think there will be goals in that game and he and Daniel Sturridge will cause problems all day for the Gunners back line. Not to mention Suarez is on fire with six goals and two assists in his last six games.
Walcott is in that same conversation with Suarez. He’s playing a more central role which has opened up opportunities for him. He’s scored at least six Fantasy Points in six of his last seven matches and one of those was a 26-point outburst. Liverpool has been better defensively in recent weeks, but this road test could bring trouble.
My last choice goes to David Silva. He deserves it after last week’s two-goal performance against Fulham. The absence of Yaya Toure allowed him more range in front of the net. Even though QPR will be a tough task, City should be able to score at least once and Silva will be around it.
*Stats up-to-date as of Jan. 28
By @RotoZdroik
About the Author
Adam joined RotoExperts in 2008 as a member of the Scout/Player Updates Team. Throughout the years, Adam has written articles encompassing a number of sports. If you like your Fantasy advice full of numbers and straight to the point, look no further. Find him (@RotoZdroik) on Twitter, to get a daily take of what’s happening in the sports world.
Fantasy Football: The “must have” Midfielders !
There is a wealth of information out there now related to Fantasy Football. The good news is that so much of it is well worth a read when considering changes for your #FPL squad. This article is no exception, a fantastic guest post from @fpl_mentor on the Midfielders your team needs to be thinking of! The link at the bottom will take you to the original article. Highly recommended.
As always if you have an article you would like to feature on FantasyYIRMA email Ryan at FantasyYIRMA@hotmail.com or contact us via twitter @FantasyYIRMA to discuss.
Must Have FPL Players – Midfielders
|
Rank
|
Player
name
|
% of teams
owned by
|
Current
price
|
Minutes played
|
Total points
|
Points per 90
minutes played
|
Value for
money
|
|
1
|
Mata
|
27.0%
|
10.0
|
1589
|
137
|
7.76
|
77.60%
|
|
2
|
Michu
|
49.0%
|
8.4
|
1878
|
130
|
6.23
|
74.17%
|
|
3
|
Cazorla
|
19.0%
|
9.6
|
2025
|
129
|
5.73
|
59.72%
|
|
4
|
Gerrard
|
7.0%
|
9.5
|
2070
|
128
|
5.57
|
58.58%
|
|
5
|
Hazard
|
21.6%
|
9.4
|
1789
|
127
|
6.39
|
67.97%
|
|
6
|
Walcott
|
21.7%
|
9.4
|
1226
|
121
|
8.88
|
94.50%
|
|
7
|
Bale
|
16.8%
|
9.8
|
1661
|
118
|
6.39
|
65.24%
|
|
8
|
Fellaini
|
34.2%
|
7.7
|
1614
|
111
|
6.19
|
80.38%
|
|
9
|
Lennon
|
8.0%
|
7.3
|
1992
|
98
|
4.43
|
60.65%
|
|
10
|
Silva
|
6.6%
|
9.4
|
1561
|
96
|
5.53
|
58.88%
|
Gameweek 24 PREVIEW: Time for Wayne to reign again?
There has only been one star in Manchester United’s and in 44.8% of Fantasy Premier League teams’ seasons.
Robin van Persie (£14.1m) has been the main man, the top goalscorer, the top points scorer, the man outshining all the others. He has looked indestructible. He even survived that attack from Ashley Williams at Swansea before Christmas.
The man eclipsed by the rise and rise of Van Persie’s star has been Wayne Rooney (£11.8m), as frequent injuries and frustrations have left him looking enviously at his team’s Dutch master and wondering just how he let a top billing that he used to own slip so easily into the former Arsenal man’s grasp. Just recently though, he’s been making hay whilst Van Persie was away.
Alright, they were in the FA Cup. And okay, he did hopelessly miss a penalty in the West Ham game, but Rooney has found the net in each of United’s last two matches at Old Trafford – matches that Van Persie was rested for – and so should be in a confident mood ahead of the visit of Southampton on Wednesday night.
The forward is itching to impress after scoring just seven Premier League goals this season, and he could just be the key to a strong ending to the season for both United and for your Fantasy team.
As the pressure cranks up, each and every win for United looks more and more important as they seek yet another title. Sir Alex Ferguson could find himself turning to the man who has been there and done it before in a bid to get over the line.
That bid could start on Wednesday.
Elsewhere during this midweek Gameweek – everyone loves a midweek Gameweek don’t they? – there will be tales of cup woe to be shared at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal meet Liverpool.
Supporters of Bradford City and Oldham Athletic can watch that one with smug smiles on their faces, and one man that Liverpool will need to watch closely will be the Gunners forward Olivier Giroud (£7.8m), who could just shunt Theo Walcott (£9.4m) out to the right of midfield again following his excellent recent form.
There were also cup woes for Norwich and QPR at the weekend, and they don’t look like disappearing in the league as the duo host Tottenham and Manchester City respectively. Gareth Bale (£9.8m) and David Silva (£9.4m) look to be the men to watch.
Rafael Benitez takes his Chelsea team to Reading, and in amongst the usual suspects in his Blues side – although there’s no Eden Hazard here of course – it could also be worth looking at the visitors’ defence, particularly the Spanish right-back Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.7m) who has racked up four assists since becoming more of a regular in the Blues’ team in November. Against a Reading outfit who have been known to leak goals at home, he’ll be looking to get forward.
Everton should also be on the front foot in their match against a stuttering West Brom, and many bosses will be hoping that Marouane Fellaini (£7.7m) can return to scoring ways after failing to find the net since December 1st. Meanwhile, Nikica Jelavic (£8.0m) has lost support following just one goal in 12 games.
One man who is more used to hitting the back of the net recently is Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke (£6.5m), and with the Belgian forward providing one of very few rays of light amidst the doom and gloom surrounding his club this season, Villa will be looking to him to fire against a similarly out of form Newcastle United at Villa Park.
He can do just that, and ensure that whilst his star still isn’t as high as Van Persie’s or even Rooney’s, it will at least stay on the rise.
Premier League: App Preview “Fantasy Football meets Wall Street”
I think if I was to say that the FantasyYIRMA team were slight fans of Fantasy Football, I’d be locked up for blatent lies…we are clearly nuts about #FPL.
So… when a new #FPL related app lands on the scene we tend to sit up and take notice. Over the past few months we’ve watched with anticipation as Football Trader gets ready to launch! This week’s guest post is an interview with Sohail Godall, Co-Founder of Football Trader.
By @ryano83
If you enjoy #FPL then this could be like an extra free transfer when you’ve had a last minute injury!
FantasyYirma: So tell me about this new Fantasy Football Trading Game app?? There’s been a lot of chat on twitter already about it!
Sohail: We’re launching a new type of Fantasy Football game for the modern fan. Imagine Fantasy Football played on a live stock market, where you buy shares in players live that are constantly changing based on news off the pitch and how they perform on the pitch.
This is basically Football Trader 🙂
FantasyYirma: Interesting, so it’s a sort of Fantasy Football meets Wall Street? Many FPL fans may not be used to the concept of Real-time trading. What made you base your game on this?
Sohail: Well we heard users tweeting and telling us that sometimes current Fantasy Football can just be a “Game of Luck”. Controversial perhaps, but in the end users always pick the same players who score goals/assist or in a team that keeps clean sheets. It’s not a level playing field and half the players in the league are mostly overlooked. (We blogged about this last week here – http://tinyurl.com/a9z6bd8)
The actual gameplay of Fantasy Football games has not evolved much since it started 20 years ago! The points scoring system is very similar.
Football today is inundated with so much information in the media – live breaking player news, transfer speculation, twitter discussion and people are constantly checking their smartphones. We want to bring this together in a game where you can quickly buy/sell players based on how you view a players worth. You read news about them, watch their performance and make a judgement on how you anticipate what they will do in the next games.
It’s all about investing in players you think will do well where you can grow their value.
FantasyYirma: So thinking about that and the real-time aspect, people would jump into the app and buy/sell their players as they hear news?
Sohail: Exactly, think of the Eden Hazard incident the other day. Before the game his stock was high, he had started coming into form and scored. His stock was rising, people were starting to buy him. Then the incident and in an instant he’s sent off and banned for 3 games. His stock falls.
We saw this during our testing this week, his price fell straight after and in our game it would likely fall as people would sell him expecting his price to fall sharply. Those that sell quickly won’t lose out too much, as it’s all about timing. Some might not sell as they think he will come back strong.
It’s all about how you anticipate a player, and every person see this differently 🙂
FantasyYirma: Sounds innovative! I can see the real time aspect appealing to people. So how does the game work? What are the basic rules?
Sohail: I thought you might ask that! See below
FantasyYirma: And for those who have been drawn in on the idea, when’s this all out?
Sohail: It’s been extremely complicated building all this! We are now finally live in a Private Beta testing out bugs on the live market and refining the gameplay. We are open to users wanting to join the Beta and provide feedback (just send us a Tweet at the address below).
Once we get through this, make some changes, we will launch on iPhone and Android by the end of February we hope. Our big launch will be for next season!
FantasyYirma: Many Thanks for your time Sohail, much appreciated and I’m sure there will be FPL fans on the lookout for this! I look forward to my free copy! 😉
See Below for further links on the game, Beta testers are welcome:
Premier League: Fightback Statistics! (Part 1)
Many thanks to @JonnyGrossmark for providing this excellent guest post. If you are not following him on Twitter already – get on it!
As always, Guest posts are welcome on the FantasyYirma page. If you have an idea for a new article or would like to promote a recent piece contact Ryan at fantasyYirma@hotmail.com for more information.
#FY
How Well Does Your Team “Fightback” When Conceding 1st? Stats Analysis
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is certainly appropriate when discussing football data at a time when data is now readily available to the public should they be inclined to look at it. Manchester City have tried to raise the bar by offering data in the hope that some bright blogger/analyst will be able to add to the debate about improving performance via analysis of the data.
In this article I want to show how important the analysis of data is but at the same time I am hoping to push the boundaries in terms of stimulating interest in raw football data by looking at data from the 2008-2009 onwards including the current season to find out if there is a correlation between conceding and the strength of a team.
If we look at teams that regularly occupy the Championship League spots and the Europa League places we see a level of consistency that the other teams cannot produce. But are there any variables that preclude established sides such as Spurs from considering winning the EPL?
The Top 6 Sides “FightBack” Analysis
We can see that Arsenal and Manchester City have both conceded first 59 times in the sample and Man City have been the team that have consolidated their position as a Top 2 team while Arsenal have declined in status but have maintained their levels in terms of being consistent regarding the the number of games a season where they concede first. We can also see that although Manchester City have drawn a higher % when conceding first (27%) , it is Arsenal who have only lost 49% of games when conceding first, which is much better than Manchester City as they have lost 57% of the games.
Manchester United have conceded the first goal of the game, the least amount of times (45) and Everton the most (76). There are some key issues to discuss.
- Why have Manchester United conceded the first goal so many times this season (11 at just over the half-way point) compared to 8, 8 ,12 and 6 in the previous seasons in the sample?
I could discuss that the Manchester United midfield is not good enough to protect the defence or that this is a random event that I cannot explain but I will leave that to other football bloggers because as long as Manchester United win their games when they concede first, the relevance of this new trend is weakened. It means that in the EPL when Manchester United concede then there is still expectation that they will win but this is dependent on so many factors so we cannot just put a value on Man United beating Fulham when Fulham scored on 3 minutes to lead 1-0.
– What is the expectation of further goals given that Fulham have scored the first goal on 3 minutes and are the away team?
– Will the expectation of goals increase (greater then calculated before the game started) or impede for both the teams or will the early away goal have an effect on just one team?
What value do we put on Carrick having to play as the emergency centre-half in that game or the laughable own goal by Vidic in the game or the fact that Rooney started on the bench due to lack of form and Nani did not even make the bench for the game?
It is easy to put a figure on the expectation of Man United winning at 1-0 down but much harder to justify that figure without the inclusion of several other variables such as the pitch conditions, the strength of the shots, the accuracy prevention of both teams, the weather conditions, the motivation of both teams and the possible under performance of players on the day plus the fact that Carrick had to play in a position that I do not think he is best suited to. But when Carrick has played centre-back what % of games have Manchester United lost compared to the average which also is irrelevant unless you look at the strength of the team that they play each time Carrick has played in the role.
I remember reading in the paper on the last game of the season(2010-2011) to be advised that Manchester United do not score many goals during the last game of the season. The final score was Manchester United 4 Wolves 2 . The flaw of the argument is that the strength and motivation of both teams and the time of the first goal and the goal expectation and any rain or beach balls or referee blunders or freak goals or Red cards could alter the course of the game.
As Man United are winning 72% of their games when conceding first this season then I do not believe Sir Alex will be losing too much sleep. A problem may occur if they are losing 1-0 to a team like Dortmund or Bayern Munich as they will find it rather tougher to get back in the game than they did against teams at the level of Fulham.
Sir Alex Ferguson has acknowledged that the biggest mistake he made was letting Stam go who I would consider to be one of the best defenders in the History of Manchester United.
Do we believe the story that Sir Alex was advised that Stam was tackling less in games and as a result a perceived view that his best days were behind him or was it as Stam has publicly said that Man United were in financial difficulty and needed the cash flow urgently.
At the petrol station he parked his car and got in with me. He told me that I had to be transferred. Then he said: “Will you please move to Lazio quickly?”
If we look at Everton they have consolidated their position as a top 6 side as far as I am concerned, but recently I was listening to the radio to be advised that “Everton have over achieved this season” and that this is a blip and their levels of performance will drop.
They did not offer any data to back up their prediction and I offer the following in the case for the defence of Everton
- Everton have in Baines and Fellani – two of the best players in the EPL in their positions and I would argue the case for Fellani to be player of the season with the qualities that he brings to the game. If Fellani and Baines were sold then I would re evaluate my thoughts on this by waiting to see who Everton Purchased as replacements. Players such as Howard, Neville and Distan have years of experience but I appreciate that the squad does not have youth on its side.
- Historically Everton have been very consistent finishing no lower then seventh since the 2008-2009 season and Moyes is a fantastic motivator of his squad and I can see him in charge at Old Trafford one day.
- If we look at Everton conceding first which is an excellent indicator of the strength of the team. I am not personally concerned by how many times a team concede but by how they react to the event.
Everton have conceded the first goal in 76 games during the sample but the levels remain very consistent and it has not impeded them from a high finish as they have only lost this season 9% of games when conceding first and in the sample overall they have drawn 34.66% and avoided losing 53.94% of the time. Only Manchester United in the sample of games can boast a better % which is 60.
By Jonny Grossmark
Follow Jonny on twitter
@JonnyGrossmark
Premier League: Mid-Season Review (Part 1)
Guest Post from SuperGrover at www.shotsontarget.co.uk a fantastic site for insight and analysis into the Fantasy Premier League!
FantasyYirma are pleased to feature this Midseason Review and will be updating the site throughout the week as part of an ongoing mini-series.
Don’t forget to drop your comments below and thanks again to www.shotsontarget.co.uk
If you would like to submit a guest post for the site, contact Ryan at fantasyyirma@hotmail.com
Mid-Season Team Analysis – THE TOP SIX
SuperGrover has worked his socks off to bring you a comprehensive review of each and every team in the Premier League, providing his rating and insightful analysis on each team’s performances and how they have turned these into results. A truly great read, this first part covers the current top six teams.
—————————————
The festive holiday period presented games thick and fast, with numerous exciting and interesting results. Rather than a week-by-week review, I have decided to use this time to present a mid-season team summary for each Premier League squad. The summary consists of shot data (both for and against), expected goals (scored and allowed), and team ratings both for the full season and over the past six game weeks. In addition, I offer a bit of my own analysis.
Note: Percentages represent difference with league average. Defensive percentages have been reversed meaning a negative percentage actually represents defensive performance below league average. The statistics for this article cover Gameweek’s 1-22 with the exclusion of the Chelsea-Southampton match from GW22.
Starting at the head of the table we have the attacking juggernaut that is Manchester United. The Red Devils have dominated all-comers offensively, scoring seemingly at will whenever they threaten. While the underlying numbers suggest Man United. have been a bit lucky offensively (2.5 goals per game is probably not sustainable – it was last season, SoT!), they are, and most certainly will continue to be, the best attacking team in the league (along with their cross-town rivals, of course).
Defensively, Man United have been better in seasons past, although they have allowed a few more goals than one would have expected given their shot and chance numbers. Anecdotally, it seems opposition teams have a renewed belief in a questionable backline (the Reading game a prime example). Up till now however the typical United response has been to..score more and is responsible for the higher than expected goals on both sides of the pitch.
Fun Fact: United have converted just 2 of 5 (40%) penalties this season. The rest of the league has converted 34 of 43 (79%).
Prediction: Normality returns offensively somewhat and the backline stiffens a bit. Expect a slight reduction in goals on both sides the remainder of the season, but nothing that impacts their championship march.
The defending champions have had quite the first half. Sitting seven points off United, City need to step up in a hurry if a Championship Title defence is in the cards. Offensively, City have really struggled this season. Statistically, they look every bit as dominant as they did last year, but they simply haven’t converted. How much of this is due to Aguero’s fitness issues is unknown, but this team should be scoring more than they are.
Defensively, City are probably a bit better than they were last season, at least in the EPL. They are very clearly the best defensive team in the league. I don’t expect that to change over the remainder of the year.
Fun Fact: City have had at least 5 more shots in the box than their opponents in all but 4 games with only one opponent (Liverpool) able to equal their shots in the box total.
Prediction: Aguero finally gets healthy and the attack starts getting on track by the end of the month. City make a run at United, but the 7 points are too much to overcome. Second place and a new manager are on the horizon.
Two different managers and nothing much has really changed for the Blues. They still remain a superb attack, focused around sensational midfield play by Mata and Hazard. They have scored quite a few more goals than expected, possibly due to the 6 penalties scored, 2 more than anyone else and about 4.5 more than average. Defensively, they’ve been more porous than the goals allowed suggest, with Cech leading the league in save percentage among regular goalies. A top 4 spot looks almost assured with a game in hand and a 4 point lead over 5th. Beyond that, the Blues will be playing for lesser cups both in Europe and domestically.
Fun Fact: Chelsea have scored 6 penalties and has only hit the woodwork twice all season. Both numbers are easily the best among the top 10 teams.
Prediction: Chelsea keep on keeping on. They firmly establish themselves as the 3rd best team in the league, albeit a substantial bit behind the top 2.
Spurs are an interesting club. A mishmash of parts with world class talents sprinkled in (Bale, Vertonghen). Adebayor, in particular, seems a bit out of place at times and one might wonder if his trip to ACON may allow AVB to find a better fit up front. Statistically, Spurs rely on shots outside the box more than most elite attacks, primarily a result of Bale’s prolific ability from 18+ yards out. With that said, their shots on target are as expected and they neatly fit into the model for goals scored.
Defensively, Spurs are excellent at preventing shots but struggled with clear cut opportunities allowed. Should they improve down the stretch they will be one of the very best defensive units in the league, behind City.
Fun Fact: Gareth Bale has the 2nd highest rate of shots on target per minute among regular players in the league behind only Romelu Lukaku.
Prediction: Spurs continue to dominate weaker competition and sure up their backline. The attack comes and goes as quality up front is missing somewhat. Big games against Everton and Arsenal determine which European competition Tottenham play for next season.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the season so far. Everton were expected to be solid, but probably not legitimately compete for the top five. They are and I expect they will continue to do so presuming fitness.
Offensively, Everton have dominated statistically. Fellaini and Jelavic represent physically dominant players and they’ve been able to get into the box against even the best opposition. However, neither have exactly proven to be a clinical striker, Jelavic surprisingly but Fellaini not so, and the resulting conversion rates have been a major drag on goals scored.
Defensively, Everton are a bit underrated, mainly due to the lack of clean sheets. Personally I feel that this is primarily the result of a scheduling quirk which saw them face better attacking opponents at home and lesser opponents on the road. This is a recipe for a bunch of single goal conceded games, something Everton have done twelve times thus far.
Fun Fact: Nikica Jelavic has just 2 goals on his last 40 shots, 35 of which came from inside the box.
Prediction: Everton continue to be statistically elite, but lack the quality that and precision finishing necessary to challenge for a top 4 slot. Clean sheets come more regularly, but tough away fixtures doom Everton to a dog fight for a Europa slot.
Arsenal are definitely in a battle this season to continue their consecutive qualification for one the coveted Champions League spots. Given the entirety of the first half of the season, one would think qualification is unlikely. However, Arsenal has been better when Walcott has been fit (both as a winger and a central forward) so I do believe the chance remains.
To do so, Arsenal is going to need improvement on both ends of the pitch. Offensively, Arsenal generate fewer shots than any other elite side. While this has improved with Walcott, that improvement needs to continue. Defensively, Arsenal are still prone to gaffs, as evidenced by their 12 errors leading to goals conceded, the most in the league. This absolutely must stop or Arsenal may find themselves shut out of Europe altogether.
Fun Fact: The Gunners scored 23 goals in just 4 games (SOT, TOT, NEW, RDG). They have just 17 goals in the other 17 games.
Prediction: Fitness improves in the second half and the backline improves. Walcott finds his place, both as a winger and striker. Arsenal do just enough to edge Everton for 5th.
GW23: Nothing but FPL Bonus Points!
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| 19 Jan 15:00 | Liverpool |  |
5 – 0 |  |
Norwich |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Man City |  |
2 – 0 |  |
Fulham |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Newcastle |  |
1 – 2 |  |
Reading |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Swansea |  |
3 – 1 |  |
Stoke City |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | West Ham |  |
1 – 1 |  |
QPR |
| 19 Jan 15:00 | Wigan |  |
2 – 3 |  |
Sunderland |
| 19 Jan 17:30 | West Brom |  |
2 – 2 |  |
Aston Villa |
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| 20 Jan 13:30 | Chelsea |  |
2 – 1 |  |
Arsenal |
| 20 Jan 16:00 | Tottenham |  |
1 – 1 |  |
Man Utd |
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| 21 Jan 20:00 | Southampton |  |
0 – 0 |  |
Everton |
| 23 Jan 19:45 | Arsenal |
Giroud 3 Podolski 2 Walcott 1 |
v |
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West Ham |
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GW22 : The FPL Review
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Those folks who played their wildcard for a Chelsea player or two were well rewarded here, particularly with 3 assists from Juan Mata. Two of his assists were for Walter’s own goals so don’t count as key passes in the data but there’s no denying his ability to produce. He’s made a habit all season long of playing the key pass or scoring from a limited number of chances. It’s a sign of real quality. Stoke managed to put in an average performance against Chelsea but all in all this was a performance of real quality from the Billionaire’s Club (no?).
So little adventure from a home side but they came away with a point. If this performance sums up QPR’s mentality against superior teams then some more clean sheets may be on the cards. Tottenham’s ratio of shots in the box to those outside tells the same story as the Chelsea-QPR game did last week – QPR can defend like their Premier League depends on it, and it probably does. Bale is at least the equal or perhaps more of a threat in this team than the more orthodox strikers Defoe and Adebayor which serves to underline his value as a truly elite fantasy player. First game in the Premier League this season too where I think a team has not made any substitutes.
A rather “average” in game in terms of the stats but there are a few important things to take away. First of all, breaking news…. Van Persie is sweet fantasy gold. The rest of United’s team is quite unusually well off the radar. If anyone one emerges from RVP’s shadow be sure to get a quick look in. And talking of shadows, this performance from Sturridge may serve to at least obscure Suarez’s flame as Liverpools prima donna attacking force. Equivalent shots and chance created, twice as many shots in the box and his team;s only goal promotes Sturridge up in my rankings to very interesting indeed.
Swansea’s performances in games like this really showcases the tactical subtleties of Premier League football. Not for the first time Laudrup’s team have shown that, when they want to, they can defend against the best attacking teams in the league. Everton too, and unfortunately for their supporters fans, also demonstrated that when it comes to breaking down a team they have not reached the dizzying heights of attacking, creative football, no matter how taller Fellaini’s hair gets. The Belgian remained amongst the Toffee’s chief threats though, as well as the off-target Jelavic and the overlooked Anichebe.
The highlight from this game (and yes there was one) was Cisse’s low overall share of the visitor’s opportunities. I expected that, in Ba’s absence, and given the role reversal between the two last season as Newcastle’s point striker, and his compatriot’s absence that Pappis Cisse would profit from a significantly increased share of shooting chances. Not so, at least from this game, albeit a tricky away game and not one from which to form firm conclusion.
It’s always difficult to assess a game where a player is sent off so early. Arsenal managed an average league performance against City, as indicated by the yellow arrows, which is not bad with ten men you’d have to say. However, I’m not convinced. Giroud has their most shots as a sub in the last third of the game when the game situation is different anyway, moreso with Kompany’s sending off. City only managing 3 SoT though raises a few eyebrows, although the overall stats do not suggest Arsenal were unfortunate not to concede two after they went a man down.
Sunderland score three goals, and probably just about deserved all three too. West Ham have made a habit this season of conceding shots but only conceding them outside their box, outside the danger area. Here, Sunderland got their chances in the box and it’s from these they had most of their chances. McClean may be set for a resurgence in form which see’s him register the kind of interest that he did this time last season. Maybe he likes his Mam’s Christmas dinners.
Puncheon is a constant threat for Southampton and has all but assured himself a place in the team with the unfortunate injury to Lallana. Lambert of course scored the goal and despite a decent price rise ahead of the Double GW still represents good value. If Villa are going to score then you’d think Benteke has to be involved.. but how many will they score?
Personal story – I was at home quietly congratulating myself on backing West Brom’s goalie Foster for a Clean Sheet in my team when #BOOM# from 0-2 to 3-2 in no time at all. Whereas Reading’s shots where spread incredibly uniformly amongst their players the Baggie’s played everything through the enigmatic Lukaku who’s now scored 9 goals in 947 minutes, that’s essentially a goal per game.
Several weeks ago I was of the opinion that Fulham were a decent attacking team, one that ultimately may struggle to pick the lock of an out and out defensive team, a la Stoke, but still a team that were prepared to take the game to the opposition, to create chances, and to score goals. Wigan are exactly the type of team against which I’d expect Fulham to flourish, not necessarily win, but create chances, and score goals. Even an early goal in this game could not give Fulham a platform to push on. Wigan’s form over the last 4 has seen them make an improvement on their early season performances and Di Santo built on a run of games back in the team with a top game, admittedly though in the absence of Arouna Kone.
Chelsea 2 – 2 Southampton – Report to follow.
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